Today is Wednesday, May the 8th. It’s not Star Wars day but it is significant for the Edmonton Oilers as it marks both the start of their second-round series against the Canucks and the seventh day since their Game 5 win over Los Angeles, the last time they took the ice.
I bring this up for a couple of reasons, mainly because teams coming off long layoffs have started poorly thus far in Round 2. Two nights ago the Panthers (who also had a seven-day layoff) were skated out of Amerant Bank Arena by the Bruins who took Game 1, 5-1. Last night, the Avalanche, who were also off for a week, got down 3-0 to the Stars early but did manage to find their sea legs in time to come back and steal Game 1 in OT.
I don’t say this as a reason to fade the Oilers tonight (I’m not) but just to keep in mind that Round 2 of the NHL playoffs can be higher variance, thanks in part to the huge rest disparities between teams. With that in mind, let’s get to some plays for the day and talk about how I’m about to go against this trend I just discussed with my first bet.
NHL Picks for Wednesday, May 8
Oilers Moneyline (-130; DraftKings)
All that talk about teams playing rusty after longer layoffs and yes, I am still taking the Oilers in Game 1. Edmonton does have to deal with being out of competition for longer than normal, but the rest discrepancy between these two teams isn’t as big as it was between Boston and Florida, or Dallas and Colorado.
Vancouver’s been off for five days themselves and the high from beating the Predators, has likely worn off. What hasn’t worn off, unfortunately, is the injury to Thatcher Demko (Lower Body) who remains out to start this series but could return as early as Game 5. Third-stringer Arturs Silovs did well against the Predators, but Edmonton is an entirely different beast. While Nashville managed just a 9.1% power-play rate and generated the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances in Round 1, Edmonton’s power-play ranks first among all playoff teams (45%) and they out-chanced divisional rival L.A. by a decent margin.
Much has been made about the Canucks going 4-0 against Edmonton in the regular season but, if anything, this has likely helped keep Edmonton focused during the break. As much as I like underdogs, especially when they are home, I like the idea of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl against a goalie who didn’t dress for Game 1 of the last series more. And I don’t mind paying a shorter price to get that matchup in Game 1.
Brock Boeser Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100; DraftKings)
The Oilers had trouble in the first round limiting another big right winger in Adrian Kempe and Brock Boeser has been a thorn in their side in the past as well. He scored six goals against them in the regular season, highlighted by a four-goal, eight-shot effort in a game back in October.
The Oilers aren’t the same team they were back in October, but Boeser is still clearly the Canucks best offensive threat. He landed a hat trick against Nashville in Round 1 and averaged 3.0 shots per game over the series. While his anytime goal prop is available at a decent price (+195; Fanduel) there is also some divergence in his shot on goal prop with DraftKings having his over set at +100 — while many books have it the over at -110 or lower.
Edmonton allowed 29.0 shots against in Round 1 (third highest among all playoff teams remaining) so there is likely to be a little more open ice for Boeser in this series, making these odds worth taking advantage of.
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+145; Fanduel)
I think we have reached the point with these prices that it’s prudent just to bet on a David Pastrnak goal blindly. That said, nothing about the Bruins' play in Game 1 of this series should make us bearish on a potential Pastrnak breakthrough for Game 2 either. Sergei Bobrovsky continued his average play (.890 SV%) and the Bruins had no issues generating scoring chances against Florida.
Pastrank has now landed four shots on net in five straight games, and while that has resulted in two goals over that span he’s still shooting at just 11.1% for the playoffs. Considering his shooting percentage in April’s regular season games was just 6.7%, there is likely more positive regression coming for the Swede – who has a career 13.9% shooting percentage.
These teams are no strangers to each other and last season Pastrnak racked up four goals in the seven-game series, landing 16 shots alone in the final two games. With a chance to put the Panthers down 2-0, I like taking his goal prop for a spin tonight and seeing if we can’t take advantage of these inflated odds.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Wednesday
- 5-way; 11.04x multiplier
Using the Pastrnak goal prop from above, we can build around it for a multi-way pick’em ticket on Underdog today quite nicely as well. Pavel Zacha remains one of the more underrated players on the Bruins and his position on the first line alongside Pastrnak gives him heightened point potential, so I’m happy to add him to any card where we have a HIGHER on Pastrnak goals.
While we don’t get a huge multiplier boost from adding in Bobrovsky’s HIGHER, it’s still heavily correlated with our first two props and nothing about his play of late suggests we should stop fading him. On the flip side, Jeremy Swayman is playing out of his mind and rewarding Boston by kicking away as many open-lane shots on net as possible. Florida is great at getting pucks on net, and Sam Reinhart was a main driving force of that effort in Game 1 – and has now gone over this SOG total in five of six playoff games. If we’re taking Swyaman for another big game then taking the over on shots for Reinhart makes sense alongside.
