We’re back to the ice with another two-game slate for our NHL playoff bets for Thursday.
The Hurricanes and Stars will both look to rebound from OT losses with Carolina being in a do-or-die kind of situation given another loss would see them get down 3-0.
The Canes have elected to sit Frederick Anderson and start Pyotr Kochetkov who posted a .911 SV% this season and was solid for them down the stretch.
With the pressure building let’s not waste any more time and get right to the preview.
NHL Picks for Thursday, May 9
Carolina Hurricanes Win in Regulation (-105; DraftKings)
This series has been relatively close with both games decided by a goal, and Game 2 going to double-OT. Given that the Canes have lost both contests you’d ideally like to see them with slightly better odds on the moneyline than the -165 line they currently sit at. At the same time, I’m not sure we should have expected a huge drop in price on the Canes.
They could have easily taken Game 2 and vastly outshot the Rangers 57-39. Looking at xGF% they have also carrier than the Rangers and done better at creating chances at even strength. The special teams and goaltending for the Rangers have been the difference thus far (their game-winner in Game 2 came on the power play) and while that might ultimately carry them to a series win I’m not sure it’s enough to carry them to a series sweep.
I also worry about fatigue in a spot like this for Igor Shesterkin, who has been the far busier goalie in the past two games. We saw Jeremy Swayman finally get taken down in Game 2 of the Bruins / Panthers series and with this series moving back to Carolina, it’s possible Shesterkin finally gives up a goal or two he’d like back.
New York could certainly continue pulling out games with timely special teams and big saves but when the music stops the score could easily swing back in their opponents' direction, violently. A Carolina victory is far from assured but if we do see them win I think there’s a high likelihood it comes in regulation and potentially by multiple goals today. As such, I’m happy to take them on the 60-minute line at anything better than -110.
Jake Guentzel anytime goal (+180; FanDuel)
Regardless of the final score in tonight’s game between the Rangers and Hurricanes, I do think you’ll see Carolina carry play again and likely outchance the Rangers. That’s been the story of the series thus far and I’m not sure why that would change with the shift to Carolina.
If that thesis holds then it’s likely we again see a big night total from winger Jake Guentzel, who looks like he’s finally coming into his own as a Hurricane. Guentzel took a little time to adapt to his surroundings in Carolina but has been brilliant over his last 10+ games. He landed six goals in his final seven games of the regular season and now has three goals in the playoffs after a two-goal performance in Game 2.
I think there are a couple of different ways you could bet Guentzel today and his alternate shot lines at 4+ (+155; DraftKings) and 5+ (+600 DraftKings) are intriguing. But with him shooting the puck so well right now a stand-alone anytime goal play makes sense as well.
Despite the breakout, Guentzel is still available as big as +180 in this market, which is likely giving the Rangers and Shesterkin just a little too much respect. I’d play this down to +170 at which point betting Guentzel on those alternate shots on goal lines may make more sense.
Joe Pavelski over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-140; DraftKings)
It’s been a weird and not very fruitful post-season thus far for Joe Pavelski fans. He finally registered his first point of the playoffs in Game 1 after being held scoreless in seven games in the Vegas series, but it came in a 4-3 OT loss. Additionally, his shot-on-goal production has gone completely limp.
Vegas held him to just one shot through the final four games and he again didn’t register any shots in the OT loss in Game 1. This is a bad sell job for an over bet so I’ll just get right to the point. Pavelski is currently performing well below his regular season baseline which saw him average 2.36 shots on net per game. While something has shifted in mindset or role in the postseason it’s also worth pointing out that he had big-time positive home splits in the shots on goal department this season, averaging 2.71 shots on net in games played in Dallas.
Pavelski may have blown his tread (he is 39 and played a lot of hockey the past few seasons) but I’d think that the longer we see Dallas in these playoffs, the more likely it is we see the regular season Pavelski show up, who was far busier from a shot on goal perspective. With his total now down to 1.5 and a reasonable price it’s a prop I’m OK playing tonight as Dallas should come out ready to test Georgiev again who was shaky early on in their first meeting.
Devon Toews anytime goal (+1000; FanDuel)
I don’t go chasing these big numbers that often in the goal-scoring category but this number on Devon Toews stuck out to me for a couple of reasons. He had a decent Game 1, landing 3.0 shots on net, with a couple of decent chances to score, and also played big minutes, trailing only Cale Makar (his partner) in ice time.
Dallas is also somewhat prone to giving up chances to defensemen as they allowed the fifth most goals to the position out of all 16 playoff teams this season – and allowed Makar himself to score in Game 1.
Toews isn’t the most prolific goal scorer but he’s managed 10+ goals with Colorado twice now (including 12 this season) and at +1000 his price has him grouped in with fourth-liners (who won’t play half his time) or less skilled defensemen. With a big divergence in price between his number on Fanduel and other major shops it makes sense to sprinkle in his anytime prop for a small play today.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Thursday
- 5-way; 12.37x multiplier
If we’re playing for a Carolina win today I like building around newly appointed starter Pyotr Kochetkov’s LOWER on his 2.5 goals against prop. He’s talented and certainly, the curveball could work to frustrate the Rangers shooters for a game – who were doing well carving up Freddie Anderson.
I don’t use the fantasy points options much on Underdog but a big day for the two first-liners in Aho and Guentzel makes sense in a dominant kind of Carolina win so correlating their HIGHERs makes plenty of sense. As does adding in the LOWER on power play specialist Chris Kreider who may not have the opportunities he did in the first two games if Carolina dominates from the get-go.
