Tonight, the NHL takes a bit of a backseat as the NFL Draft has its moment in the sun. Still, there are two games on the slate for today and some great betting opportunities.
Both of the series that take the ice today showcase home teams that are down 2-0 in their respective series in Tampa Bay and New York. While the Islanders remain underdogs (and as big as +136 on the moneyline at some shops) the Lightning are small favorites at most books.
So are either of these 0-2 teams worth taking or do we simply ride with the favorites, who have paid off twice now for bettors? Let’s walk through my NHL best bets for tonight below.
NHL Picks Today - Best NHL Playoff Bets for Thursday
Andrei Svechnikov Over 0.5 points (-125; DraftKings)
- anytime goal (+280; bet365)
The goal props have been fruitful for us in the playoffs thus far (thanks Jason Robertson), so let’s keep chasing that market on this small slate.
The Hurricanes are now up 2-0 and are -166 favorites tonight in New York. Svechnikov hasn’t scored a goal yet but landed an assist in Game 2 and had six shots on net in Game 1. The Russian saw most of his ice time come on the first line alongside Sebastian Aho in Game 2 and given the success that line has had it’s likely Svechnikov will be slated there again in Game 3.
We saw Svechnikov start the season slowly but look more like his old self in the second half, and he landed two goals and six points over his final four games. Despite the solid recent form and his role alongside the Hurricanes' best center, we can still get a very solid price on him just to register a point today. I like the over 0.5 points at -130 or better but if we go line shopping there is good value available on him as a goalscorer tonight.
Svechnikov is +280 on bet365 to score a goal, but +230 on some of the other major books, which represents a solid divergence worth taking advantage of. Laddering your bets on him across the two markets is certainly one way to approach his props but regardless, I do like playing the winger in multiple ways to make an impact on the scoresheet once again.
Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (-115, DraftKings)
I’m prone to think this game may have a little more scoring than we saw in Games 1 and 2 and in that scenario, I lean towards the Lightning.
Tampa Bay was a dominant home team this season (25-11-5) and also posted a winning ATS record in Tampa (22-19) which is not something all of the top teams can boast.
One of the main reasons for the Lightning's success at home was their ability to generate more scoring chances. They attempted 31.41 shots per game (vs 27.17 on the road) and their power play was 5% more efficient in Tampa Bay as well. That’s not an insignificant differential and something that could easily tilt the final score in their favor today, in a series that has already given us two one-goal games, and one OT.
Another reason to like Tampa? Sam Bennett (bone bruise) will miss this contest for the Panthers.
Florida is one of the deepest units in the league but Bennett had been helping drive the Panthers' most effective line between Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe, so any switch-up in that trio is not good news.
Considering we have also seen great play out of Andrei Vasilveskiy thus far (.922 save%), leaning towards a Tampa Bay bounce back at -115 or better makes plenty of sense to me today.
Victor Hedman Over 0.5 Assists (-115, DraftKings)
Tampa Bay being at home means it's also a good time to look at some Lightning player props.
Victor Hedman landed his first two assists of the series in Game 2 and the 63 assists he recorded on the season was the second-highest single-season mark of his illustrious career.
As you might have guessed, with Tampa’s offense being more proficient at home, Hedman’s point production was better in Tampa Bay as well. He landed 35 of his 63 assists at home this season (40 home games) and has landed assists in six of his last eight home games, overall.
In a lot of ways I’d rather just play the over on Hedman’s assist prop in this contest (as opposed to Tampa moneyline) as Florida does have the firepower to go toe to toe with the Lightning and win a shootout – but even in that scenario, our Hedman assist prop could still hit.
Even with the breakout in Game 2, his price is essentially the same as it's been the entire series so anything -120 or better looks worth playing today.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Thursday
- 10.3x Multiplier
Adding the Svenchnikov goal prop alongside a boosted multiplier for a Sebastian Aho assist prop gets us some nice correlation.
As mentioned above, the two are playing on the top unit for the Canes so Aho is likely going to be on the ice for any Svechnikov goal – and is one of the best playmakers in the game.
You could choose to use Hedman’s assist prop in the same way (and correlate it with a Brayden Point goal for an even bigger card) but for now, I kept things simple and just used Hedman to complete our 3-way ticket for today.
