It’s a light night for the NHL playoffs with just three games on the slate. The Bruins and Leafs will play in Game 3 tonight with the series tied 1-1. The Leafs MAY get William Nylander back (undisclosed) which would be a huge boost.
The Stars and Kings will look to equal their series after Game 1 losses. The Oilers remain the biggest favorites on the slate at -200 ML.
We dive into it below and review my NHL best bets for the night.
NHL Playoff Bets for Wednesday
Jason Robertson Anytime Goal (+200, BetMGM)
- Play to: +190
A Robertson goal was on my list of plays for Game 1 of this series and the winger promptly delivered for us, scoring at the end of frame one.
Despite the solid effort that included three shots on net, Robertson is now available at even bigger odds than we could get him at in Game 1 – where his best price was +190. The +200 on BetMGM also represents a strong bit of divergence to take advantage of as other books like DraftKings have him as low as +165.
Prices aside, Robertson’s now scored in 10 of his last 21 games and landed three or more shots on net in four of his last five games. The Stars power play didn’t have much opportunity in Game 1 but I expect harder skating and more urgency will give way to more power play time for Robertson in this second game.
All things considered, I like this series to remain higher scoring (Game 1 ended 4-3).
Vegas goalie Logan Thompson did start well for Vegas, but he’s a playoff rookie and still posted a sub .900 save % in Game 1. I won’t be shocked if the Stars chase Thompson at some point in this series (and force Vegas to go to Adin Hill) so I like continuing to stay on Dallas’ best scorer from that point of view as well.
Dallas Stars Win in Regulation (+105; bet365)
- Play to: +100
Much like we did with the Avalanche yesterday, I think we need to swallow our fear and back the Stars for a Game 2 bounceback.
Yes, Jake Oettinger was horrific (4 goals on 15 shots) but Game 1 jitters and the shock of seeing Mark Stone in action are both excuses enough to expect Oettinger to be a decent chunk better in this second game than he was in Game 2.
It would be one thing if Oettinger was our only lifeline, but Dallas did outplay the Golden Knights by a decent margin in Game 1. They outshot them 29-15 and by almost every possession metric imaginable, the Stars were the dominant team.
Given they had the puck for so much of the game I think one area of positive regression for the Stars in Game 2 will be on the power play. They only had two chances in Game 1 but could certainly double that number (or better) in Game 2. If they do, it will give their fourth-ranked power play a chance to take over this game.
Unlike the Avalanche, the market hasn’t given us much of a discount on the Stars, which isn’t overly shocking as they are the number-one seed in the West. There are still some decent numbers out there but the Stars were such a dominant team at home this season (26-11) that I think taking them on the regulation line instead is warranted.
Vegas was just 19-22 ATS on the road this season and I wouldn’t be shocked if we got a convincing type of Stars win to even this series. With +105 available I like taking the 60-min on Dallas in this spot assuming the line stays above +100.
Victor Arvidsson over 2.5 shots (-146; FanDuel)
- Play to: -155
Arvidsson missed many games this year for the Kings but when he’s been healthy he’s been a big catalyst for them.
Over his last four games, the former Predator averaged 4.0 shots on net and had two multiple-goal games. In game one against the Oilers, he played over 20 shifts, landed an assist, and had 3.0 shots on net. His SOG price is moving downwards as a result but we can still get him at -146 on Fanduel today which is a price I like taking.
From a matchup perspective, Arvidsson’s ice time feels like it can go nowhere but up against Edmonton who proved in Game 1 that the Kings will have to outscore them if they want to move into the second round. Arvidsson has been one of the few Kings to have sustained success against the Oilers, landing goals in three of his last six meetings with the club. After Game 1, the Swede has also now landed 3.0 or more shots against Edmonton in eight of his nine games against them as a King.
While I think there is still solid value on this SOG prop, looking to Arvidsson for an anytime goal today isn't such a crazy idea either. He’s +260 on Fanduel (27% implied probability) to score 1+ goals today and, as mentioned, has scored in 50% of his last six meetings with the Oilers.
Underdog NHL Pick’em Plays for Wednesday
- 2-way; 4.25x multiplier
If you like the Arvidsson goal prop I think this is a solid way to get exposure to it with a little less investment.
Stuart Skinner is prone to lapses and despite Edmonton’s success over the years against the Kings, Skinner has allowed plenty of goals to L.A.’s forwards.
Despite the correlation, we can still get this two-way combo at 4.25x which is a good multiplier and improved payout over Arvidsson’s regular goal prop.
