Not a Boring Thursday Night: Bills vs. Dolphins Brings Heat
In today's Betting Life newsletter, presented by Underdog:
No more boring Thursday nights for us! Two AFC East division rivals coming off wins meet in South Florida tonight as the Dolphins (-2.5) host the Bills.
Disappointing as Miami’s scoring output may have been versus Jacksonville (sigh), there’s nothing wrong with the offense—Miami’s near the top of the board in yards/game, yards/play, and leads the NFL in passing yards.
Buffalo did a decent job defensively versus an ascendent Cardinals offense but let’s be honest, Arizona’s not in the same strata as Miami. It’s worth noting the Bills especially struggled to defend the slot (Greg Dortch shoutout again!), allowing 10 receptions to the position last week alone.
That brings us to my first prop for Thursday Night Football, which we’ll get back to after the break …
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Give ’Em the Heater—Off Your Rocker
- Sharp Hunter: Bills @ Dolphins
The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Waddle On Over
As I mentioned in the intro, the Bills struggled to contain slot-man Greg Dortch in Week 1.
Enter Jaylen Waddle, who managed to eclipse 100 receiving yards in a “down” game against Jacksonville—Dortch broke his own “slot-only” narrative by earning targets deep down the field. Waddle did some work downfield as well.
Waddle’s route tree is especially encouraging (below), as Master Builder Mike McDaniel not only mixed up wide and slot, but also left and right with an entire slew of different routes. If we’re looking for 64 receiving yards, adding the deep-play ability to the already-effective, up-close, YAC-based work could vault Waddle past the mark early.
Also note the fact Waddle is averaging 73 receiving yards per game for his entire career and a forearm injury already knocked Buffalo’s starting DB Taron Johnson out of the game. Buffalo is going to need all the help it can get in this one, and I can’t see them keeping up with the Dolphins’ east-west speed.
THE BET: Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Give ’Em The Heater ⚾️🔥—Off Your Rocker
Pitching debuts can be difficult to cap for both books and touts, opening the door for potential value. Tonight we get the first appearance of superstud prospect Kumar Rocker for the Texas Rangers, and he’s been downright filthy through 36.2 IP—1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 40.6% K-BB (!), 51% Groundball, 0.30 HR/9 ... wow.
Workload is the main concern—but Rocker is certainly trending in the right direction …
… and every few pitches he throws seem to result in a strikeout. Rocker has gone over 5 Ks in 5 games straight, averaging nearly 8 K/GS in that span.
So why is Kumar Rocker’s strikeout prop set at only O4.5K against the Seattle Mariners, only the worst strikeout club in MLB (below)?
I’m not sure, but I’m not waiting around to find out—if Rocker is going to push 5 IP, this prop could be more than 1 strikeout too low.
THE BET: Kumar Rocker O4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
You can search for MLB Player Props for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Finder!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Geoff Ulrich uncovers plenty of best and props for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.
Thor Nystrom and Claudia Bellofatto take a deep dive into College Football Week 3 Best Bets in the Betting Life Show.
Thor Nystrom has some real bangers in his Week 3 College Football Best Bets.
Matthew Freedman delivers a slew of NFL Bets to help you win in Week 2.
Jump in! Geoff Ulrich has NFL Pool Picks for Week 2.
DeMarcus Robinson or Tyler Johnson as the WR2 for the Rams? John Laghezza has the breakdown.
The Sharps are Feeding: Bills @ Dolphins
by Mike Mutnasky of Sharp Hunter
Week 1 of the NFL Season is in the books.
Favorites did well, going 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. Overs won the week, going 9-7 to the under.
That is not deterring the sharps, who according to our tracking at Sharp Hunter, are playing the under in Bills/Dolphins on Thursday Night.
It looks like the sharps have helped move this under from 51 to open the week, down to 49 on Wednesday, and now down to 48.5 at most books on Thursday. And I get it.
We saw a Bills team that tried to establish the run vs. the Cardinals, running the ball on 56.9% of their plays: that was the fourth-highest run rate in the NFL Week 1 according to FTN. I mean, Josh Allen had just FOUR pass attempts at halftime. Bills OC Joe Brady loves to run it and those Buffalo runs can keep the clock running and the Miami offense off the field.
That Dolphins offense is banged up, with Raheem Mostert ruled out on Wednesday. Fellow RB De'Von Achane is a game-time decision. If he misses, that's a major weapon OUT for Miami. We'll find out later today.
And of course, the Prime Time Unders trend is real—it's hit at 60% since 2019—that's even with the total going over in 3 of the 4 primetime games in Week 1.
Short week, lots of running, and the potential for some injury impact—I'm with the sharps here. I really liked the under at 49 (and even more at 51!), but could still play it at the current 48.5.
If College Football is also your game, follow the weekly best bets from our Betting Life staff.
