In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Sunday NFL Blitz Part Deux, Afternoon Delight: It’s game day! Each Sunday, I crack open my marble notebook to share my personal hand notes and leans to help you finalize your betting ticket for this lovely Week 12 afternoon slate.
If you happened to miss Part One, you can read it here:
Vikings (8-2) at Bears (4-6): Two of the NFL’s best defenses collide Sunday with only some nasty weather missing. Chicago’s holding on to its longshot hopes of a postseason bid, desperately trying to correct its tale of two seasons. The Monsters of the Midway dropped four straight off a bye after they were 4-2 going into the break—so much for a post-bye rookie bump, I guess. Despite the loss to Green Bay last weekend, Chicago inspired some hope, showing tangible signs of structural life. CHI played its highest rate of 3-WR sets in a competitive game all year after moving on from Shane Waldron. Call me crazy, but awarding targeted routes to Rome Odunze over Gerald Everett feels like a step in the right direction. Minnesota’s won three straight (versus sketchy competition), doing a great job redesigning protection schemes on the O-line after losing Christian Darrisaw. Watch the trenches closely, MIN has yet to deal with anything like CHI’s front seven and its league-leading sack rate. LEAN: MIN/CHI u39.5
Chiefs (9-1) at Panthers (3-7): Light and dark. Good and evil. Chocolate and vanilla. Throughout history, we’re often presented with the great dualities of the universe. Now we pit the 9-win Chiefs coming off a loss against the blind squirrel-like Panthers, finders of two accidental nuts in a row. Someone tag the Freezing Cold Take account—we may never have a more “nature is healing” set up in our lifetimes. In what reality do the Panthers really ship Patrick Mahomes back to Missouri on a losing streak? Not this one. LEAN: KC -10.5
Broncos (6-5) at Raiders (2-8): For someone who’s believed in the Broncos all season, I sure do make a ton of excuses for them. Competition level (or lack thereof) drove results more than anything for me through 10 weeks. Denver beat TB, NYJ, LV, NO, and CAR and lost to SEA, PIT, BAL, LAC, and KC. That’s what made last week’s game against the division-leading Falcons so pivotal, as they whooped the dirty birdies. If my Nick Jr.-level win-column analysis holds firm, expect Sean Payton and Bo Nix to outclass the talent-depleted Raiders. Denver holds a firm edge in all phases with a great chance to run the Raiders out of their home building. LEAN: DEN -5.5
Cardinals (6-4) at Seahawks (5-5): There’s always one. Every week a game puts that dumb look on my face when I just don’t understand the line. The Cardinals cruised into their bye winners of four in a row, capped off by three 27-plus-point outings versus good defenses. Kyler’s showing arm talent while looking spry on the ground as the defense played out its mind for a full month straight. Credit to Seattle for a tough win in San Fran, but if the Seahawks are favorites for home-field advantage due to the vaunted 12th man, I’m not buying it—the Seahawks sit below .500 at home (15-16) over the last four years. Luckily for both squads, the NFC West has struggled across the board. It’s one of only two divisions without a 7-game winner, so you can expect an all-out battle royale as my sneaky pick for the most exciting game Sunday. LEAN: ARI +1
49ers (5-5) at Packers (7-3): In case you wondered what Brock Purdy is worth to betting markets, the answer is 3 full points. Yesterday, markets shot from -2.5 to -5.5 in an instant when Kyle Shanahan announced Purdy’s shoulder will keep him out of Sunday’s contest. Sucks, too—I had a perfect spot on the couch polished for maybe the most consequential conference game to date. Now we get Jordan Love’s Packers against Brandon Allen, whose -0.18 EPA/attempt and 56.7% completion rate would rank 47th and 48th respectively among 50 QBs to play in 2024. Oof. I guess any team starting Christian McCaffrey has a puncher’s chance at winning, just color me skeptical. Purdy’s injury being serious could be the straw that broke the camel’s back, dropping the curtain on this season. Will they turn to … Daniel Jones? I’m struggling to see SF do enough on offense with such inexperience under center. LEAN: GB -5.5
Eagles (8-2) at Rams (5-5): What beats a prime-time playoff-type atmosphere before the calendar even hits December? Nothing, unless you pair it with your beverage of choice, of course. With Detroit soaking up all the praise for the league’s best team, I’ve put Philly nose-to-nose with the Lions since they came soaring out of the bye. Six straight wins later and it's a shame the Eagle offense won’t be at full strength with star WR2 DeVonta Smith out (hamstring). And none of that’s to mention how great the defense continues to play, not allowing anyone to hang 24+ points since Week 1. Impressive stuff. Conversely, things couldn’t have been worse for the (1-4) Rams entering their Week 6 bye … until suddenly they weren’t. One perfectly placed week off and absence made the heart grow fonder. I really need to stop shortchanging Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, especially when both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are active. The Fantastic Four since has vaulted their team to the NFC’s 8-seed on the playoff bubble. Expect fireworks tonight if the 49-point game total is any indication. LEAN: LAR +3
Hope you enjoyed Part Deux of the Betting Life NFL Blitz! I’ll be back Monday morning with a detailed write-up of Monday Night Football and two more +EV bets. Catch me on X with any questions, comments, or feedback on the newsletter.
Make sure to check out all of Week 12’s odds with the Fantasy Life NFL Odds table.
OR BROWSE THE WEEK 12 NFL GAME MODEL!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- No Cap: Panther Kebabs
- New York Prop Exchange: Oh My Goedert
- Sharp Hunter: Sticky Conditions and Slow Scoring
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The top five player props for today’s slate. Jayden Daniels cleared for takeoff.
🐬 Ever wanted to swim with Dolphins? Here’s your chance.
💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.
📊 Projections? We have projections for every Week 12 player.
🤑 The players are paid to score, so why can’t you be? … Week 12 Anytime TDs.
No Cap🏈🧢—Panther Kebabs
THE BET: KANSAS CITY -10.5 (-112) FanDuel
The breakdown up top is pretty short since not that much goes into betting on Patrick Mahomes, especially after a loss. I had to ask Grok for a hand with this one but according to our future A.I. overlords, the perennial MVP is 18-4 after eating an L. Yeah, Carolina’s in deep trouble. Kansas City maintained a half-game conference lead over BUF despite the loss but will obviously lose the head-to-head tiebreaker if it comes down to it. Long story long, it’s all gas for KC today.
Andy Reid came out of the bye in his bag, beating San Fran by double digits before adding much-needed DeAndre Hopkins into the mix. Things did turn sour for two straight against top-flight defenses, sure. It happens to the best of us and, in fact, it just did. Investopedia defines a double bottom as “a classic technical analysis charting formation that represents a major change in trend and a momentum reversal from a prior down move in market trading. The twice-touched low is now considered a significant support level and the upside has new potential.”
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Despite some recent hiccups, Kansas City’s still incredibly efficient and nearly impossible to get off the field. Talk about discouraging opposing defenses:
- 3:19 Time Of Possession Per Drive: 1st
- 2.2 First Downs Per Drive: 1st
- +0.31 Third Down EPA/Play: 2nd
- 51.9% Third Down Conversion Rate: 1st
Meanwhile, Carolina benefited from facing decimated rosters in New Orleans and New York, replete with backups. No such luck for the Panthers this time around, I’m afraid. Even baking in a few soft matchups you’d be hard-pressed to keep them out of the conversation for the NFL's worst defense:
- 31.0 Points Allowed Per Game: Last
- 48.7% Scoring Drive Success: Last
- 67.0 Plays Per Game: Last
- -0.09 Defensive EPA/Play: 31st
- 5.8 Yards Allowed Per Play: T-28th
- 45.3% Rush Success Rate: 31st
- 160.1 Rush Yards Allowed Per Game: Last
- 48.9% Tackle Success Rate: 28th
- 102.9 Opposer Passer Rating: 30th
The list goes on and on. And to think we could do the same exact exercise reflected across phases. Bryce Young’s passing stats would be comprehensively last if not for backups getting playing time. And the Chiefs’ defense allows less than 300 total yards/game, nearly 20 more than the Panthers have gained!
Enough is enough—this spread could close north of two touchdowns and still make sense.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Oh My Goedert
THE BET: Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) DraftKings
Injuries open and shut more windows of opportunity than anything else in this game of ours. Today’s second handicap is as short as it can be—I don’t want you to overestimate how much thought went into this.
Earning a Jalen Hurts target depends on trust. We see this manifest constantly in the Eagles’ narrow target tree, creating tremendous on-off splits among their pass catchers. Most fantasy footballers will tell you if either A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith ever misses time, rush to your waiver wire and add Dallas Goedert. He’s the clear third option in the vertical game and the only Eagle outside the dynamic duo to earn a double-digit team share of targets or air yards.
Philly’s not shy to feature Goedert, either. Without Brown or Smith in Week 4 in Tampa, Goedert acted as the WR1 (7-62-0), earning 28% of all targets—even making four grabs out of the slot.
I sang praise for the Rams’ defense so I have no intention of bashing them—this is more a matter of volume and filling the injury void.
Make sure to check out our Player Projections to see where they land, too.
MORE WEEK 12 NFL PLAYER PROP BETS
Sharp Hunter: Sticky Conditions and Slow Scoring
- By Mike Mutnansky
- Source: Sharp Hunter
I don’t have to tell you, but we have a big week of football ahead of us.
- Full Week 12 Slate
- Three games on Thanksgiving
- Black Friday Game
- Week 13 Sunday Slate
So. Much. Football.
And if you want to know where the sharp money is going on these games, you want to be locked and loaded over at Sharp Hunter.
We track bets from thousands of sharp bettors. And we’ll have you covered all week.
As for Sunday, we’re looking at three late games, including Broncos at Raiders. As of Saturday night, the Broncos are either a 5.5 or 6-point road favorite. Our sharps like the Raiders +6—and we show a One-Bag Sharp Score to prove it.
I disagree with my wife about Christmas lights. She has them on right now and I think it’s WAY too early. And I disagree with the sharps here. I’m betting the Broncos as a road favorite.
The market has been slow to price the Broncos as a good team. But the evidence is they are. Bo Nix is suddenly 3-to-1 to win OROY. His EPA month-to-month has shown a drastic improvement—and now Courtland Sutton is a factor in the passing game.
He gets to face a Raiders defense ranked 28th overall DVOA—that includes a 26th-ranked unit against the pass. They've allowed a bottom-10 QB rating of 100.7, too. This is a good spot for Nix.
The Raiders offense ... NOT GOOD. They lead the league in turnovers and now with two RBs ahead of him doubtful, Ameer Abdullah is in line to be the starter for the Raiders ... they will find it hard to run here against the Broncos. And Denver has a huge advantage on the DL.
Trend is our Friend: Home/divisional dogs the last two seasons 26-36-3 ATS (42%) per Action Network.
The sharps like the Raiders plus the points. I have been with the sharps plenty this year and I will be in other games this week.
But not here—I’m laying the points and confidently betting the Broncos.
