In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
DOINK! Well, that was exciting!
Our opening round of playoff action boasted a few more downs than ups, but more or less kept us on the couch in anticipation the whole time.
What’s better than the thrill of victory and agony of defeat hanging in the balance as oblong balls clang off an upright? Nothing, that’s what …
Texans 32, Chargers 12: Listen carefully, and you just might hear Justin Herbert throw another interception. Sigh. Sadly, the Chargers star QB, known for protecting the football did anything but on Saturday. Not one, not two, not three, but four picks destroyed any chance for the Bolts to move forward. Combine that degree of inaccuracy with overly conservative fourth-down decision-making and you get blown out as a road favorite.
Ravens 28, Steelers 14: If any team went out and put their definitive stamp on the weekend, it was Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry proved why they’re the most dynamic backfield in NFL history, combining for 267 rushing yards and two scores. No Zay Flowers? No problem … Baltimore looked every bit a Super Bowl champion Saturday night.
Bills 31, Broncos 7: I swear this one felt much closer than the final score insists. Denver came out firing on all cylinders with a 43-yard TD strike on their sixth play from scrimmage—and it was all downhill from there. Broncos’ kicker Will Lutz doinked a potential game-tying FG off the crossbar to close out the half and the rest, as they say, was history. You cannot stop Josh Allen, you can only hope to contain him.
Eagles 22, Packers 10: As we feared for Green Bay coming in, the Packers lacked any threat of verticality without outside WR Christian Watson. Tack on in-game injuries to Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, to go with innumerable frustrating run calls by Matt LaFleur, and the Cheeseheads never stood a chance. Down nine points with seven minutes to go, GB decides it’s a perfect time to establish the run with backup Emanuel Wilson—and it ended in disaster, exactly as you’d expect.
Commanders 23, Bucs 20: Just when you thought your chance had passed, they went and saved the best for last. We may not have eclipsed the 50-plus-point game total, but there was certainly no shortness of excitement down in Tampa last night. If one game earned the honor of a re-watch, it’s this one. Jayden Daniels wins a playoff game as a rookie on the road, a feat in itself worthy of respect. That said, it took some fourth-quarter bumbling by the Buccos to get them there. A Baker Mayfield fumble in his own red zone followed by a botched snap on 3rd and 1 from the Commander 12 set up Zane Gonzalez for a 37-yarder off the upright and in as time expired.
Heading into tonight’s showdown, here’s where the playoffs stand after yesterday’s action …
Remember, we have you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL draft.
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on tonight’s spread, total, and moneyline odds between the Rams and Vikings.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Playoffs: Monday Wild Card Blitz
- The New York Prop Exchange: Hig-hop
Monday night Mundt mayhem, projected box scores, and more …
🐏 Geoff and Matt like the Rams moneyline tonight.
🆒 I cannot stress enough how cool Freedman's projected box score for the game is.
🗡️ We need to point out our Vikings/Rams Revenge Game writeup, which, YES, involves a Johnny Mundt scenario.
📈 Reminder: Jake Nagy has Jordan Addison as a Gabe Davis 2.0 playoff breakout candidate
🏴☠️ Chris Allen took his turn in our "What I got right" series and looks back on his Jalen McMillan optimism.
🔬 Looking ahead to 2025? We have a Kendall-led roundtable of what we learned in Guillotine Leagues this season.
NFL Playoffs🏈💥—Monday Wild Card Blitz
#4 Rams (10-7) at #5 Vikings (14-3)
Sam Darnold and his 14-win Vikings head out to the Arizona desert, desperate to correct course after taking a second-half beatdown from the Lions last weekend. Sure, the loss stung, no doubt. It cost MIN a precious week off but after nine straight wins, occasional clunkers come par for the course. I fully expect Kevin O’Connell to put his squad back in the same position that nearly earned them the top seed in an unbelievably difficult conference. As far as the Rams go, it just feels like standard operating procedure at this point to count out Sean McVay before his time. Once again, the now 38-year-old coach and youngest to ever win in the postseason proved why he’s among the best in the current era.
Stripping names off my handy-dandy offensive spreadsheet, there’s a sense of the famous Spiderman GIF going on here. While both teams can score, boasting above-average success rates and EPA/play, the ground games create massive cause for concern. Neither team averaged more than 4.1 yards/carry or 2.7 yards after contact per rush, combining for just nine +20-yard attempts all season. So if this weekend taught us anything, the winner will be whoever leans into their strengths, rather than forcing square pegs where they don’t belong.
Overall, the defensive upper hand's got to land with Minnesota—if not based solely on their interior line's express ability to completely shut down opposing ground attacks. My problem for the Vikings tonight, however, rests with the same soft secondary schematics that got them in hot water versus the Lions. MIN led the league all season in two-high shells and 6-plus-DB alignments, relying on disguised blitz packages to create pressure up front. So in other words, it’s like some weird reverse mullet—party up front and business in the back. Keep an eye on those matchups down in the trenches, LAR’S done a phenomenal job keeping Matthew Stafford upright all season. And we know how dangerous the Rams pass attack can be given time to operate.
Not one game’s gone over 44 points this postseason and there’s a great chance that ends tonight. Proflic offenses directed by creative coordinators and explosive playmakers on a fast track could finally deliver the first shootout of the second season.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Hig-hop
THE BET: Tyler Higbee O 2.5 Receptions (-120; FanDuel)
No question tonight’s focus lies with the offenses—and for the Rams more specifically on the pass attack. I mentioned the Vikings' almost stubborn approach toward aerial suppression and their willingness to allow production underneath. Minnesota led the league in an unusual combination of zone coverage and blitz rates. Constantly dropping back your DBs while sending 5-plus men after the QB inevitably opens a soft spot behind the D-line. While effective at stopping yards after the catch, it’s also why the Vikings finished bottom-5 in completions and passing yards allowed. But can it work against an efficient QB like Stafford?
Los Angeles struggled at the tight end position all season but finally reinserted Tyler Higbee back into the mix after nearly a year of rehab. The veteran TE wasted no time leaving his mark on the Rams’, immediately usurping the full-time role (image below).
Higbee couldn’t have come back at a better time, providing a reliable option to move the chains. Sean McVay won’t hesitate to deploy him across the formation with a variety of high-probability routes (image below). This in particular should come in handy tonight as the Rams secondary scrambles for a protection scheme against superstar sophomore Puka Nacua.
Long story long, Higbee’s going to generate exactly zero attention … perfect for our purposes tonight. The market appears to be a little slow on his increased utilization, making for a nice low bar to clear (my favorite kind).
Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare.
I hope you enjoyed today’s MB BettingLife newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
Sharp Hunter: Back The “Home” Dog on MNF
- By Mike Mutnansky
- Source: Sharp Hunter
And then there was one.
Monday night in Arizona—the final game of Wild Card Weekend.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking thousands of sharp bets every day. Not just in the NFL, but also in the NBA and college basketball.
And our sharps will have some ideas for next Monday’s College Football Playoff National Title game between Ohio State and Notre Dame. Make sure you’re locked in.
As far as this Monday night goes, the Vikings are a 2.5-point “road” favorite in a game with a consensus total of 47.5. This game was moved from LA to Arizona because of the ongoing fires in California.
The sharps we’re tracking at Sharp Hunter like the Rams +2.5—and we show a One-Bag Sharp Score to back that up.
I’m excited to bet with the sharps here and play the Rams plus the points.
Yes, the Vikings were one of the best stories in the regular season. Sam Darnold, Kevin O’Connell, Brian Flores … some great seasons from the players and the coaching staff.
BUT … as a gambler, it’s hard to put last week’s stinker against the Lions in the rear-view. I mean, the Vikings ran 11 plays in the red zone and scored just 3 points. Darnold and even the electric Justin Jefferson struggled.
That was an important, emotional game … can the Vikings go on the road to beat a team they already lost to this season after that effort? I’m not so sure. Especially considering teams after facing the Lions are now 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS this season. Yikes.
As for the Rams, they rested their starters last week for this game. I don’t see an answer in the Minnesota secondary for Puka Nacua—he’s in a great spot Monday night. If Matthew Stafford can get time against a blitzing Minnesota defense, he can make plays down in the passing game.
The Vikings gave up the second-most yards per game to opposing No. 2 WR per DVOA stats—maybe this is a big Cooper Kupp game, too?
I know road favorites have been awesome this season ATS. But after what I saw last week and given the fact the Rams rested for this, I see why the sharps at Sharp Hunter are betting the Rams plus the points.
I’ll be right there with them—I’m betting the home ‘dog Rams in the final game of Wild Card Weekend.
