In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues.
Another jam-packed weekend of NFL action in the books—my heart’s still racing from a massive sweat last night. Story of Week 16 thus far (besides another player prop sweep!) must be the ever-growing disparity between the two conferences. Yesterday once again proved to me the NFC is the class of the NFL.
Props to the downtrodden Panthers and Cowboys as well for pulling off upsets against teams fighting to survive—a testament to the fighting spirit we tune in for every day. As for the NFC West, there’s a sad trombone sound playing somewhere. What a disappointment …
There’s still one contest left on the docket, which if yesterday were any indication, may not play out as one-sided as it appears.
Monday Night Blitz, Saints (5-9) at Packers (10-4): I won’t bury the lede, I’m not actually buying the David versus Goliath narrative tonight. Sorry for the misdirection.
Green Bay’s in a smash spot tonight, winning four of five off the bye and looking pretty darn good in the process. The Pack’s team arrow is pointing firmly up—they’re now Top 5 on the season in both net-point and yard differential (the boomers go wild!).
Despite 10 wins, Green Bay hasn’t clinched a postseason berth yet, looking to avoid slipping into the final playoff seed. Mapping a path to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX entirely on the road through this gauntlet of a conference could present a potentially unscalable obstacle.
At this point, New Orleans’ offense can hardly even be described as a shell of itself. Without exaggeration, these Saints are as close to losing an entire unit as humanly possible. Quarterback Derek Carr, complementary stud wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, utility belt Taysom Hill, and the unquestioned engine of this offense Alvin Kamara all fell victim to the war of attrition. NOLA’s cupboard is beyond empty—not a broken granola bar or stale rice cake in sight.
Maybe New Orleans can keep this weekend’s competitive streak going a little? Improvement from the Saints’ secondary can’t be denied since their Week 12 bye, ranking top-3 in scoring defense and yards allowed per play. However, only the Rams presented a similarly balanced style of attack as Green Bay. The thing is, even if Darren Rizzi gets all up in his schematic bag tonight, keeping the Cheeseheads under their projected 29 points, how do they get on the board? LEAN: NO/GB u43 (-115)
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Under The Radar: Saints Come Marching … Out
- No Cap: Josh Jacobs Jingleheimer Schmidt
- Where are the Sharps betting on MNF?
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football Just Got Sweatier.
Playoff Guillotine League contests are now LIVE.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from around our world:
👀 Ian and Dwain run down the Week 16 Instant NFL Recap, passing along nuggets on usage and trends for the weekend action.
🧀 The Packers are heavy favorites over the Saints on MNF at Lambeau Field. LaMarca offers plenty of reasons why smart money is on the Pack.
🚀 A Jordan Love RUSHING Prop? You bet.
🔮 Has Joe Burrow reached another level? LaMarca taps Bengals-Broncos among the Early Week 17 Betting Odds.
🏆 How did the favorites fare in the College Football Playoffs first round? Not too shabby.
Under The Radar📡🏈—Saints Come Marching … Out
THE BET: New Orleans Team Total u14.5 (-135) BET365
Team totals don’t come much lower than 15 and can still sometimes feel too high. Again, not to dogpile the Saints here but the struggle is real. Regardless of what you think about Derek Carr, missing your starting quarterback is a tremendous hindrance to any offense. Then you lose every skill-position player one after another for the remainder of the season. It’s a wrap for this offense, people.
New Orleans will turn to a fifth-round rookie out of South Carolina, Spencer Rattler. In the little bit we’ve seen under center, the results (69-706-2-2) match whatever predictably terrible outcome you’re imagining …
Of 43 QBs with +120 attempts in 2024, (Reminder: there are only 32 teams)
- -0.10 EPA/Attempt: 42nd
- 57.5% Completion Rate: 41st
- 73.1 Passer Rating: 41st
- 5.9 Yards Per Attempt: 40th
- 1.7% TD Per Attempt: 41st
Green Bay also stepped it up on defense down the stretch against strong competition in SF, MIA, DET, and SEA. In the past four weeks, GB is top- in scoring defense (18.3 PPG), EPA/Play (+0.11), average drive distance (26.4), hurries/game (15.1), and all-important tackle success rate (56.1%).
Matt LaFleur is so good at mixing up pre-snap looks into different zone packages, there’s a non-zero chance Rattler’s head spins so fast his helmet falls off. Again, two touchdowns with an extra point feels generous considering these same Packers kept the Titans, Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks below this same mark.
No Cap🏈🧢—Josh Jacobs Jingleheimer Schmidt
THE BET: Josh Jacobs O88.5 Rushing Yards (-110) MGM
Betting on the starting running back for a double-digit favorite at home with playoff implications on the line shouldn’t take too much explication. Green Bay brought in Josh Jacobs to reliably shoulder the load through the cold, precisely what the veteran free agent has done (image below).
Expect Matt LaFleur to strike the Saints’ defense early and often at its weakest point in the interior, where they’ve struggled all season to suppress opposing ground attacks:
- 5.8 Yards Allowed Per Play: T-31st
- -0.03 EPA/Rush: 29th
- 44.7% Rush Success Allowed: 30th
- 4.9 Yards Allowed Per Rush: T-31st
- 1.95 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: 31st
- 15 +20-Yard Carries Allowed: 30th
- 47.8% Tackle Success: T-30th
Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare
Hope you enjoyed today’s MB BettingLife newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!
The Sharps Slow Play Monday Night Football
Source: Sharp Hunter
All eyes of the football world will be on Wisconsin as Week 16 in the NFL comes to a close.
The Packers host the Saints as 14-point favorites in a game with a 42.5-point total.
There will be a lot on the line between betting, DFS and the fantasy football playoffs.
Monday, Sunday, Saturday and even Christmas—at Sharp Hunter, we track bets on all the games in the NFL from some of the sharpest bettors around.
Our sharps are eyeing the total on Monday night, and we're showing One-Bag Sharp Score on the UNDER of 42.5 points.
The under here makes sense and I’m likely to bet with the sharps.
Let's start with the Saints—their offense has been decimated by injury. No Alvin Kamara, no Chris Olave, and no Taysom Hill. It’s hard to see them scoring many points on the road with Spencer Rattler at QB.
On the other side of the ball, we have a Packers team that is happy to play slow. When you look at FTN’s SEC/SNAP stats, Green Bay clocks in as the fourth-slowest team in the NFL in neutral-pace situations. In those same neutral-pace situations, the Packers run the ball at the second-highest rate in the league—behind only the run-happy Eagles.
We’re going to see snow in Green Bay during the day Monday. The forecast calls for that snow to taper off before kickoff Monday night, but it will still be cold. That’s not a bad thing for the under.
Let’s review.
Rattler and a limited offense on one side.
A good defense—and an offense that wants to play slow—on the other.
The sharps at Sharp Hunter see this as a Monday Night UNDER.
I agree. Under 42.5 to wrap up NFL’s Week 16.
