In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

Welcome back for the next installment of our MLB team preview series, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason betting markets with all the most recent analysis.

Today, we stay on the left coast but pivot over to the National League West to cover the beleaguered Rockies and enigmatic San Diego Padres.

One of these teams could make a serious run at the World Series, while the other tries to avoid a third straight 100-loss season.

I’ll let you guess which is which. But first, let’s check chase rate 


2024 Hitter Discipline Team Leaderboard: Chase Rate

And, of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t put all this great analysis to good use and wrap up with my favorite future bet?

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute! 📕

🏈 To my fantasy football people, of course we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

🩅 Ian Hartitz just finished breaking down all 32 NFL teams’ needs. The Super Bowl-champion Eagles closed it out. What could they possibly need?

âšĄïž Thor Nystrom just finished up being boots on the ground at the NFL Scouting Combine. His Scouting Profile on Combine stars Quinshon Judkins is a must read. We also have Risers and Fallers from the week in Indy.

🚛 Deebo Samuel is on the move, and we have all the fantasy implications for both the Commanders—another weapon for Jayden Daniels— and the 49ers.

First, let’s play hardball in the NL West! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!

CAN ANYONE UNSEAT THE DODGERS IN THE NL WEST?

Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading 


🧐 It’s here! The Rookie Super Model introductory guide will help you prep for the 2025 season.

âŹ†ïžâŹ‡ïž Speaking of the NFL Scouting Combine, here are 6 Risers and 6 Fallers.

🚀 Stock up on this year’s rookie RB class, which averaged 4.48 in the 40.

đŸ’Ș Why does it feel like the Chiefs need so much?

đŸ€© What QBs, RBs, and WRs showed out at the Combine?

🙌 Kaleb Johnson’s most underrated trait.

👀 Where do some of the Combine stars fall in Freedman’s latest NFL Mock Draft?

âšŸđŸ—»MLB Team Preview—Colorado RockiesđŸ—»âšŸ

Colorado’s coming off one of the quietest 101-loss seasons in MLB history, avoiding tons of much-deserved criticism as the White Sox sucked up all the loser oxygen in the room. Obviously disgusted with their team’s production and thirsty for a change, the front office proceeded to shock the world 
 by doing absolutely nothing this offseason to improve this team.

Sorry to my Rockies faithful out there for clowning this team, but sometimes we need to laugh to keep ourselves from crying. Maybe in a perfect run-out, the offense turns a few heads — I’ll concede that much. However, not adding to this starting rotation borders on legitimate managerial malpractice.      

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Brenton Doyle, CF: .253 / 80 / 66 / 21 / 26
  2. Ryan McMahon, 3B: .239 / 70 / 70 / 19 / 6
  3. Ezequiel Tovar, SS: .263 / 77 / 79 / 22 / 12
  4. Kris Bryant, DH: .245 / 40 / 42 / 10 / 0
  5. Michael Toglia, 1B: .225 / 62 / 65 / 21 / 7
  6. Nolan Jones, LF: .241 / 60 / 50 / 14 / 11
  7. Thairo Estrada, 2B: .260 / 53 / 45 / 9 / 14
  8. Jordan Beck, RF: .242 / 39 / 37 / 9 / 7
  9. Jacob Stallings, C: .239 / 29 / 30 / 6 / 0

Hitting Overview: Once again, the White Sox’s historically atrocious 2024 season acted as cologne for the Rockies, who simply didn’t draw the ire they clearly deserved. Social media trolls spent all their time insulting Chicago’s Pale Hose, diverting attention from Colorado’s disciplinary disasters.

In this age of advanced analytics, where “paralysis by analysis” is certainly a real thing, I often aim for the porridge in the middle that’s just right. What I mean is simply using strikeout and walk rates presents obvious contextual lapses, while citing dozens of stats often creates overlap and confusion. 

In my great wisdom (kidding!) I’ve boiled hitters’ disciplinary approach down to five stats, adding swinging strike, chase, and zone-contact rates to the standard pairing (K% and BB%). This adds some easy-to-understand nuance without overloading the statistical palette. 

If you guessed that Colorado finished in the bottom five across the board, you’d be right, posting an almost-unbelievable plate approach line—26.8% K (T-Last), 7.5% BB (26th), 15.1% Swinging Strike (Last), 31.6% Chase (28th), 80.1% Zone-Contact (27th). So, so, so, bad it hurts.

Again, having added just light-hitting middle infielder Thairo Estrada into the mix over the winter, I doubt the offensive needle moves much this season for the Rocks—but hey, at least he doesn't strike out at an exorbitant rate. 

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  • GermĂĄn MĂĄrquez, RHP: ⭐⭐ 
  • Ryan Feltner, RHP: ⭐
  • Kyle Freeland, LHP: ⭐
  • Antonio Senzatela, RHP: ⭐
  • Bradley Blalock, RHP: ⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: If you thought the Rockies’ offense stunk, you may want to sit down for this next section. Do not adjust your digital reading device, those are my actual ranks. If anything, I may have been overly generous laying a second star on former All-Star Germán Márquez, who’s back on the bump pumping +98 mph after a Tommy John surgery in May 2023.

Not counting Márquez, who threw only 4 IP in 2024 (to a 6.75 ERA), the Rockies’ staff finished exactly where any sane analyst expected, dead last in ERA (5.54), WHIP (1.50), SIERA (4.87), Strikeouts (591), K-BB% (8.3), Hard Hit% (36.2), and Home Runs Allowed (554). Even as a non-Rockie fan, my only response is an audible sigh.

This may be the first time in MLB history that a team takes the field on Opening Day without a single starter posting a +20% K rate the prior season. The 2025 Rocks could give the White Sox a run for their money this season in MLB’s race to the bottom—they’re that bad.

ROCKIES’ CHANCES TO FINISH WITH MLB’S WORST RECORD?

âšŸđŸŸïžMLB Team Preview—San Diego PadresđŸŸïžâšŸ

Maybe it’s due to existing in the Dodgers’ massive divisional shadow, but widespread rumblings of the Padres’ salary shedding amidst a general negative aura don’t quite match last season’s 93-win total. There’s a ton of bona-fide Major League talent on both sides of the ball, which under normal circumstances would call for a push forward. 

After a disappointing 2023 campaign featuring some of the worst close-game run-outs in recent memory (2-12 in extra innings, 9-23 in one-run games), nature healed for the Friars in 2024, going 10-2 and 22-19 in those two categories, respectively. The band’s mostly back together, and this time phenom Fernando Tatis is finally coming off normal offseason preparation, not rehab. Yet for some reason, the Padres’ baseline (-110) win total sits at just 86 games, seven behind last year’s output, which was good enough for the fourth seed in the National League. 

What do the books see that I may be missing at a glance? Could the rumors of breaking down this squad be an inspirational 4-D chess move by the SD brass?

Let’s dive on in 
 

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Luis Arraez, 1B: .299 / 68 / 61 / 1 / 7
  2. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: .273 / 98 / 90 / 32 / 25
  3. Jackson Merrill, CF: .274 / 83 / 81 / 23 / 15
  4. Manny Machado, 3B: .259 / 81 / 89 / 30 / 7
  5. Jake Cronenworth, 2B: .244 / 71 / 66 / 17 / 5
  6. Xander Bogaerts, SS: .265 / 75 / 68 / 16 / 12
  7. Jason Heyward, LF: .229 / 25 / 25 / 7 / 3
  8. Elias DĂ­az, C: .224 / 30 / 34 / 8 / 0
  9. Tirso Ornelas, DH: .241 / 56 / 61 / 13 / 4

Hitting Overview: I wouldn’t quite go so far as to whip out the same horse meme for the Padres as the Astros; they’re significantly deeper one through six. Especially when focusing on the top four lineup spots (all of which posted a +.279 xBA in 2024), I can assure you that no starting pitchers will be looking past San Diego on the schedule. 

Maybe it’s my fantasy baseball acumen dominating the fore, but there’s a ton to get excited about in terms of the offense. San Diego’s order fits a time-tested prototypical mold—elite batting average up top in Luis Arraez, followed by elite power/speed combos in Tatis and Jackson Merrill, with future Hall of Fame slugger Manny Machado set to clean up the basepaths. Even Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts create a decent obstacle in the middle of the order for the opposition, boasting well above-average plate approach skills in 2024 (max 18.0% K, min 91.4% Zone-Contact).

If you’ve never seen the No. 9 hitter Tirso Ornelas’ name before, don’t sweat it—neither did I until a few weeks ago. The 24-year-old rookie free agent out of Mexico is coming off really strong back-to-back campaigns in AAA, posting a pretty healthy 600 PA pace (.289 BA / 79 R / 81 RBI / 17 HR / 8 SB). Point being that a step forward from a rookie entering his prime is not out of the question, further deepening the lineup.

I get San Diego is still short of being on the Dodgers’ level, but I’m fully expecting more instant classics when these divisional rivals start tussling in-season.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Dylan Cease, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Michael King, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  3. Nick Pivetta, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  4. Yu Darvish, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
  5. Kyle Hart, LHP: ⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: Despite nonstop reports of Dylan Cease being dangled in the trade market, San Diego bucked the seller’s narrative by acquiring SP Nick Pivetta off the free-agent market. Granted the four-year, $55M deal is backloaded ($1M base for 2025), it still seems to me they could be trolling us. Pivetta struggled with the long ball last year (1.7 HR/9), but a 3.31 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 22.9% K-BB allude to a stronger season to follow—especially with natural regression to the elevated 15.1% HR/FB baked in.

Similar to Ornelas, you may not recognize the name Kyle Hart, pulling up the rear for the Padres’ staff. A 32-year-old lefty free agent out of Korea’s KBO, Hart’s coming off a fantastic season overseas, making 26 starts with excellent results and the type of inputs that translate to MLB success—high strikeouts (28.8% K), low walks (6.0% BB), and a metric ton of groundballs (60.1% GB). That last metric in particular plays anywhere in the world, where surrendering home runs will land you in El Paso playing for the Chihuahuas.

Top to bottom, the Friars’ rotation gives SD a solid chance to win every night—you can bet your bottom dollar they’ll be a listed favorite in the vast majority of contests. Without following through on this supposed dismantling on the horizon, the Padres remain one of the most undersold teams in this year’s futures market.

CAN FERNANDO TATIS JR. WIN THE NL MVP?


🔼 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔼

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

THE BET: San Diego Padres Over 85.5 Wins (-110) On DraftKings, Risk 0.55u (To Win .50u)

For transparency’s sake, I started out targeting San Diego to make the playoffs at (+110). However, for a slight 20-cent premium, we can better cover the backdoor with a standard win total wager. Interestingly enough, only five teams in the NL (ATL, PHI, LAD, NYM, PHI) currently have a baseline win projection higher than San Diego—so that playoff bet is still viable depending on your own personal style/perception.

Here’s my thinking. Let’s say we get an entirely reasonable repeat of last year’s National League standings, except the Padres swap spots with the Diamondbacks (another quality division rival). It’s possible the Padres will clear their win total of 86 without getting into the postseason. For reference, it took 89 wins to get in last year, coming down to head-to-head record. 

I’d hate to clear SD’s win total by multiple games, but still fall short of the playoffs because of some random tiebreaker. 

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

COULD THE DIAMONDBACKS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, TOO?