Philadelphia Eagles 2023 Betting Preview

Last year, the Eagles went 14-3 in the regular season, won the No. 1 seed in the NFC, dominated the Giants (38-7) and 49ers (31-7) in the playoffs, and barely lost to the Chiefs (38-35) in the final minutes of the Super Bowl. This year, they are widely expected to be one of the NFL’s best teams.

In this 2023 Eagles preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets. 

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Eagles preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Philadelphia Eagles 2023 offseason odds

Odds as of June 10. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 10. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 Philadelphia Eagles team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 10.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 10.

Eagles general manager & head coach

• General Manager: Howie Roseman
• Head Coach: Nick Sirianni
• Team Power Rating: +5.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 2
• Coach Ranking: No. 9

Roseman is the executive VP of football operations in addition to the GM. He has worked successfully since 2010 with a number of head coaches (Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson, and Sirianni) and has guided the team to two Super Bowls and one championship with his shrewd personnel moves.

Sirianni seemed overmatched as he opened his coaching career with a 3-6 record, but the 2021 Eagles closed the season strong to sneak into the playoffs as a 9-8 wild card. In 2022, they morphed into a juggernaut under Sirianni’s stewardship. 

It’s hard to identify what he does exceptionally well in terms of scheme, game planning, or in-game decision making, but Sirianni also has no glaring weaknesses, and he has proven to be a steady presence throughout his first two seasons. Overall, he has had a promising start in Philadelphia and could catapult himself into the upper echelon of the coaching ranks with another deep postseason run. 

Nick Sirianni coaching record

• Years: 2
• Playoffs: 2
• Division Titles: 1
• Super Bowls: 1
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 2-0
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +3.25
• Regular Season: 23-11 (.676)
• Playoff Record: 2-2 (.500)
• Against the Spread: 18-19-1 (-6.4% ROI)
• Moneyline: 25-13 (-3.1% ROI)
• Over/Under: 21-17 (7.2% ROI, Over)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 Eagles team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 Eagles offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 Eagles defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Philadelphia Eagles offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Brian Johnson
• Offensive Playcaller: Brian Johnson 
• Passing Game Coordinator: Kevin Patullo
• Run Game Coordinator/OL Coach: Jeff Stoutland
• Senior Offensive Assistant: Marcus Brady
• QBs Coach: Alex Tanney
• RBs Coach: Jemal Singleton
• WRs Coach: Aaron Moorehead
• TEs Coach: Jason Michael
• Notable Turnover: OC Shane Steichen (Colts)
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Johnson was a strong college coordinator at Houston (2017) and Florida (2018-20) before joining the Eagles in 2021 as the QBs coach, where he helped develop QB Jalen Hurts. He’s a natural OC and playcalling successor to the departed Steichen. 

Patullo is a Sirianni lieutenant who has worked under him in a variety of offensive roles for the past half decade (2018-20 Colts, 2021-22 Eagles). Stoutland has been with the Eagles since the Kelly era and is directly responsible for much of the team’s offensive line and rushing success. Brady is another Sirianni lieutenant who now will have a full-time role with the team after serving as a consultant last year following his midseason firing from Indianapolis, where he replaced Sirianni as OC in 2021.

Tanney is a former fringe NFL player who transitioned to coaching in 2021 and will now replace Johnson as QBs coach after serving as his assistant last year. Singleton is a respected developer of talent who has mentored runners in a number of schemes across his time coaching in college (2006-10 Air Force, 2011-14 Oklahoma State, 2015 Arkansas) and the NFL (2016-17 Colts, 2018 Raiders, 2019-20 Bengals, 2021-22 Eagles). 

Moorehead is the son of Emery Moorehead (a 12-year NFL receiver) and was himself a depth receiver for a half decade on the Peyton Manning Colts before becoming a college coach. 

He has been with the Eagles since 2020. Michael was a quarterback for the championship-winning team at Western Kentucky, where he graduated with a 4.0 GPA and engineering degree in 2002. Since then he has been a coach at various places, usually focusing on the TE position, and he was the OC for the 2014-15 Titans. He has worked as the TEs coach for Sirianni since 2019.

2023 Eagles offensive unit rankings

2023 Eagles defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Sean Desai
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Matt Patricia
• DL Coach: Tracy Rocker
• EDGEs Coach: Jeremiah Washburn
• LBs Coach: D.J. Eliot
• DBs Coach: D.K. McDonald
• Nickels Coach: Ronell Williams
• Notable Turnover: DC Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals), Consultant Vic Fangio (Dolphins), LBs Coach Nick Rallis (Cardinals), Def. Passing Game Coordinator & DBs Coach Dennard Wilson (Ravens)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Desai is replacing Gannon as an outside hire. He has a good reputation, but his one season as a coordinator with the 2021 Bears (23.9 points per game, No. 22) was unremarkable at best. Patricia is a poor brain-trust substitute for Fangio.

Rocker as a player had a distinguished college career (1988 SEC Player of the Year, All-American and Outland Trophy winner as the best interior lineman) but an abbreviated NFL career. He has been a journeyman DL coach for the past 30 years, mostly in the college ranks, overseeing a stifling unit for the BCS-best 2010 Auburn team. He was hired by Sirianni in 2021. Washburn has spent most of his career as an OL coach, but he pivoted to defense when he joined the Eagles in 2019 and was the team’s senior defensive assistant for 2020-21 before coaching the EDGEs last year, when the team had three players at the position with double-digit sacks.  

Eliot has been a collegiate coordinator for much of the past decade (2013-16 Kentucky, 2017-18 Colorado, 2019-20 Kansas, 2022 Temple). He will replace Rallis, who followed Gannon to Arizona as the Cardinals' DC. McDonald is a lifetime college coach who joined the Eagles in 2021 as the assistant DBs coach. He will attempt to fill in for the departed Wilson, as will WillIams, who worked with Desai on the 2019-21 Bears on quality control.

2023 Eagles defensive unit rankings

2023 Special Teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Michael Clay
• Assistant Special Teams Coordinator: Joe Pannunzio

Clay and Pannunzio have both been with the Eagles since 2021 in their current roles. 

Eagles projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Jalen Hurts
• Backups: Marcus Mariota, Tanner McKee
• Notable Turnover: Gardner Minshew (Colts)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Hurts is a top-five QB in reality and fantasy: He has improved every year of his career going back to college. Last year, he ranked No. 3 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expected (including playoffs, per RBs Don’t Matter). Mariota is a possible upgrade on Minshew with 76 NFL starts. McKee is a prototypical pocket-passing developmental rookie with long-term potential.

Projections as of June 12.

Running Backs

• Starter: Rashaad Penny
• Backups: D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell
• Borderline: Boston Scott
• Notable Turnover: Miles Sanders (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Penny is notoriously brittle, having played just 15 games for the Seahawks over the past two seasons, but in that stretch he was the No. 1 RB with 1.23 rushing yards over expected per carry. 

Penny was a sharp offseason addition, as was D’Andre Swift, who has 156 receptions in his three NFL seasons. Last year’s No. 2 RB, Gainwell fits better as a No. 3 change-of-pace option, pushing Scott to the roster borderline. The Eagles might opt to keep four backs, but I expect them to try to store Scott on the practice squad, given how cheaply they invest in RBs overall.

Projections as of June 12.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

• WR Starters: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins
• WR Backups: Olamide Zaccheaus, Britain Covey
• TE Starter: Dallas Goedert
• TE Backups: Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra
• Borderline: TEs Dan Arnold & Tyree Jackson
• Notable Turnover: WR Zach Pascal (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Brown has a league-best 10.2 yards per target among all full-time WRs since entering the league in 2019. The sample is small-ish, but he’s on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. Smith had 1,196 yards receiving last year and enters his third season as the consummate No. 2 WR. 

Watkins has been competent with 8.9 yards per target in his two seasons as the primary slot receiver for the Eagles, but I expect him to be pushed for playing time by the veteran Zaccheaus, who has inside/outside versatility and will be an undersized but reasonable replacement to Pascal. The second-year Covey is likely to reprise his role as punt returner, and he might even take over for Scott as the kick returner.

Goedert has been one of the most explosive tight ends in the league in his two seasons with Hurts as the full-time starter, averaging 10.6 yards per target and 7.2 yards after catch per reception since 2021. After him, though, the TE room is unsettled. Stoll and Calcaterra respectively played 656 and 250 snaps last year, but they were used primarily as blockers and combined for just 24 targets. The veteran Arnold (1,258 career yards receiving) and project Jackson (converted QB with a 4.59-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-7 and 249 pounds) could challenge Stoll and Calcaterra for roster spots given their pass-catching edge.   

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Jordan Mailata, LG Landon Dickerson, C Jason Kelce, RG Cam Jurgens, RT Lane Johnson
• Backups: OT Jack Driscoll, G Sua Opeta, OL Brett Toth, OT Tyler Steen 
• Borderline: C/G Cameron Tom, OT Roderick Johnson, T/G Fred Johnson 
• Notable Turnover: RG Isaac Seumalo (Steelers), LT Andre Dillard (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

The Eagles have an undoubted top-five offensive line. Mailata is an in-his-prime stalwart blindside protector. Dickerson entered the league two years ago as a unanimous All-American Rimington Trophy winner as the best center in college football, but he has settled into the NFL as an above-average guard. Kelce turns 36 years old this season — but he’s a future Hall-of-Famer with five first-team All-Pro selections over the past six years. Jurgens is Kelce’s presumed pivot successor, but for now he’s the frontrunner to replace Seumalo after seeing little playing time last year as a rookie. Like Kelce, Johnson is advanced in age (33 years), but he is coming off a first-team All-Pro campaign and has a serious case for Canton.

Sep 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce (62) against the Minnesota Vikings at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Driscoll is a steady veteran who has made 16 starts at LT, RT, and LG across his three-year career. Similarly, Opeta has made five starts at LG and RG since 2020. With Driscoll and Opeta, the Eagles will hardly miss starter-turned-backup Dillard. 

Toth was on PUP for 2022, but the team seems to value his versatility, given that he took snaps at C, G, and T in 2020-21. Steen was just selected near the top of Round 3 (No. 65 overall) with four years of starting experience in the SEC (12 starts at RT and 21 starts at LT at Vanderbilt in 2019-21; 13 starts at LT at Alabama in 2022). Tom and the Johnsons are all league-average backup-caliber veterans, and one of them could sneak onto the 53-man roster if the Eagles decide to keep 10 offensive linemen.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat
• EDGE Backups: Brandon Graham, Nolan Smith, Derek Barnett, Patrick Johnson
• DT Starters: Fletcher Cox, Jalen Carter
• DT Backups: Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, Kentavius Street, Marlon Tuipulotu
• Borderline: DT Moro Ojomo
• Notable Turnover: DTs Javon Hargrave (49ers), Ndamukong Suh (free agent), Linval Joseph (free agent), EDGE Robert Quinn (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Reddick is a full-blown stud with 10-plus sacks in each of the past three seasons — with three different teams. Sweat is coming off a breakout 11-sack campaign and is still just 26 years old despite a half decade of NFL service. Graham has played all 13 years of his career with the Eagles and had a career-high 11 sacks in 2022 as a high-impact rotational pass rusher. 

Smith was the No. 1 prospect in the 2019 recruitment class and could be an instant, albeit scaled-back, contributor as an undersized (6-foot-2 and 638 pounds) but athletic (4.39-second 40-yard dash) first-year Reddick acolyte. Barnett missed almost all of last season and could find himself in a reduced Quinn-like situational role, given that his career production (21.5 sacks) hasn’t matched his 2017 first-round investment. Johnson is a serviceable backup unlikely to see much playing time with the addition of Smith and return of Barnett.

Cox was a diminished version of himself last year (career-low 60.2 PFF defense grade), but he owns a long history of productivity (65 sacks, 85 tackles for loss) and availability (173 games) across 11 NFL seasons. Carter was a unanimous 2022 All-American and might have been a top-five pick in the draft if not for off-field issues. Blessed with Suh-like ability, Carter looks like the likely long-term replacement for Hargrave. 

Davis enters his second NFL season ready to take over for Joseph as the team’s primary zero-technique run-stuffer. Williams logged 446 snaps last year and might actually play ahead of Carter given that he was the team’s best interior run defender in 2022 (73.5 PFF run defense grade). Street offers little against the run, but he does have nine sacks and 22 hurries as a rotational player over the past two years. Tuipulotu has just 12 tackles and four pressures in two years. He could lose his roster spot to seventh-round rookie Ojomo.

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Nakobe Dean, Nicholas Morrow
• Backups: Christian Elliss, Shaun Bradley
• Borderline: Davion Taylor
• Notable Turnover: Kyzir White (Cardinals), T.J. Edwards (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26 

Dean played sparsely last year as a rookie behind departed starters White and Edwards, but he entered Georgia as a five-star recruit and left after three seasons as a unanimous All-American Butkus Award winner. He will probably be no worse than average as the team’s green dot defender. 

A seasoned veteran, Morrow should be able to help Dean learn to lead — but he has been inconsistent in coverage and bad against the run throughout his five-year career. Elliss and Bradley are special-teams contributors, and either one of them could lose a camp battle to Taylor, who was on the practice squad last year but played ahead of them previously, making seven starts on defense in 2020-21.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Darius Slay, James Bradberry, Avonte Maddox 
• CB Backups: Kelee Ringo, Greedy Williams, Josiah Scott
• S Starters: Terrell Edmunds, Reed Blankenship
• S Backups: Sydney Brown, Justin Evans, K'Von Wallace
• Borderline: CBs Zech McPhearson, Eli Ricks
• Notable Turnover: SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Lions), FS Marcus Epps (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Slay has returned to his early-career-Lions form with six interceptions and 23 passes defended over the past two years. Similarly, Bradberry had a bounce-back campaign in 2022 (second-best career mark of 77.1 PFF coverage grade) in his first year with the team. Maddox struggled the first few years of his career as the team experimented with him at different positions — he was brutal in 2020 as a perimeter cover man with just two pass breakups on 47 targets — but he has developed into an above-average slot defender since then. 

Ringo was the No. 1 corner in the 2020 recruitment class and a two-year SEC starter at Georgia. He has the size (6-foot-2 and 207 pounds) and athleticism (4.36-second 40-yard dash) to develop into a starter. Williams (post-hype veteran) and Scott (injury fill-in for Maddox) are not locks to make the 53-man roster and will need to hold off McPhearson (subpar defender but core special-teams contributor) and Ricks (undrafted rookie with five-star pedigree).

Edmunds is an unremarkably solid box/slot defender who will be charged with replacing Gardner-Johnson after five starting seasons with the Steelers. Blankenship is a high-effort undrafted second-year free safety who has fallen into a starting job following the departure of Epps. 

Brown is a ball-hawking rookie who had six interceptions last year: He will rotate with Edmunds and Blankenship and might eventually steal the latter’s job. Evans missed the 2019-21 seasons with injuries, but he showed promise as a deep defender with the Buccaneers in 2018-19 and was competent last year with the Saints. Like Brown, Evans too could push Blankenship for playing time. Wallace is a mediocre defender but a good special-teams tackler.

Specialists

• Kicker: Jake Elliott
• Punter: Arryn Siposs
• Holder: Arryn Siposs
• Long Snapper: Rick Lovato
• Kick Returner: Britain Covey
• Punt Returner: Britain Covey
• Borderline: P Ty Zentner, PR Boston Scott

Elliott has a strong 89.3% field goal rate over the past two years and is 65.5% from 50-plus yards for his career. Siposs last year was No. 30 with 39.5 net yards per punt, and in 2021 he was No. 34 with 38.7. He could lose his roster spot to the rookie Zentner. 

Lovato has one Pro Bowl selection in six years as a full-time NFL long snapper. Covey handled almost all the punt returns for the Eagles last year and had a respectable 9.3 yards per return. He was less dynamic as a kick returner (20.6 yards per return), which might allow Scott (27.1 in 2022) to keep his roster spot.

Eagles schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Eagles’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 7
• Home Division: NFC East
• Opposing Divisions: AFC East, NFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 11-15
• Opponents: at KC, vs. BUF, vs. SF, at DAL, at SEA

Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, the Eagles have the seventh-easiest schedule this year based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. They have a double-sandwiched four-of-six away stretch in the first half of the year (A-H-A-A-H-A), but the Eagles play the Buccaneers, Rams and Commanders twice in those games, so it shouldn’t be a daunting challenge. 

They could legitimately enter the Week 10 bye undefeated if everything aligns.

Right after the bye, they have a Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs in Kansas City on Monday Night Football. That’s followed by back-to-back home games — but those are against the Bills and 49ers, both of which have top-five double-digit win totals (10.5). 

Then the Eagles have back-to-back road games, first in Dallas against the division rival Cowboys on Sunday Night Football and then out west against the Seahawks, who have a true home-field advantage. All those teams made the playoffs last year, as did the division-rival Giants, whom they play in Weeks 16 and 18. 

If the Eagles take care of business in Weeks 11-15, they’ll close the year with the No. 1 seed in their sights. If they struggle in Weeks 11-15, they might be competing directly with the Giants for a wild card spot in the final weeks.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Eagles.

• Sirianni coaches like a guy who lost his most important lieutenants.
• Johnson and Desai underwhelm as coordinator replacements for Steichen and Gannon.
• Hurts fails to develop as a pocket passer.
• Penny misses most of the season with an injury and the smallish Swift, Gainwell, and Scott are unable to grind out tough yards between the tackles.
• Watkins and Zaccheaus play ineffectively as the Nos. 3-4 receivers.
• Stoll and Calcaterra continue to offer little as pass catchers.
• Kelce and Johnson finally break down due to age.
• Jurgens struggles in the transition from center to guard in his first season as a starter.
• Graham declines because of age, Smith develops slowly, and Barnett meekly returns from injury.
• Davis and Carter can’t play enough snaps to replace Hargrave, Suh, and Joseph effectively.
• Dean and Morrow look lost as off-ball replacements for White and Edwards.
• Slay and Bradberry both start to play like guys in their 30s.
• Edmunds is inconsistent in his first year with the team, and no one steps up as a reliable free safety.
• Elliott regresses to his pre-2021 form (82.2% field goal rate).
• Siposs stays subpar.
• Eagles barely make the playoffs and lose on Super Wild Card Weekend.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Eagles.

• Sirianni gets even better in his third year.
• Johnson and Desai adequately replace Steichen and Gannon — because they still have HC Nick Sirianni overseeing everything.
• Hurts continues to develop as a pocket passer.
• Penny and Swift stay healthy enough to form a productive committee.
• Watkins and Zaccheaus exploit the opportunities they get against soft coverage.
• Stoll and Calcaterra aren’t needed as pass catchers.
• Kelce and Johnson play like the ageless wonders that they are.
• Jurgens teams up with Dickerson to form a dominant guard duo.
• The edge rushers dominate even more than they did last year thanks to the addition of Smith and return of Barnett.
• Davis and Carter bring out the best in each other and form a generational interior duo.
• Dean plays like a guy who should’ve been drafted on Day 1 and Morrow proves that off-ball linebackers don’t matter.
• Slay and Bradberry roll back their 2022 dominance.
• Edmunds does the job at strong safety, and Blankenship gets by on a combination of grit and spit.
• Elliott maintains his 2021-22 form.
• Siposs becomes average.
• Eagles easily earn the No. 1 seed, dominate throughout the NFC playoffs, and avenge last year’s championship loss by beating the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58.

In-season betting angles

I view the Eagles as a moderate “bet on”/over team that will likely offer the most advantage at home based on the following trends.

• Sirianni at Home: 11-7-1 ATS (16.4% ROI)
• Hurts at Home: 13-5-1 ATS (36.8% ROI)
• Sirianni & Hurts Over at Home: 11-6 (25.4% ROI)

I don’t see the Eagles as a “bet against” team — but if I were to fade them I would probably do it when they were underdogs and/or away from Lincoln Financial, based on these trends.

• Sirianni as Underdog: 3-7 ATS (34.8% ROI for faders)
• Sirianni on Road & at Neutral: 7-12 ATS (20.8% ROI for faders)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason betting market to exploit

Under 11.5 wins (-110, DraftKings) has my eye, given that I have the Eagles projected for 10.9 wins, but I don’t want to make a low-upside bet this early in the offseason. If it’s still available closer to the season, I’ll consider it — but I don’t desire to fade the Eagles in general. Instead, I’ll look at the MVP market.

Jalen Hurts MVP +1200 (FanDuel)

After Week 15 last year, Hurts was a -150 frontrunner in the MVP race — and then his odds plummeted once news of his shoulder injury hit the market. Hurts missed Weeks 16-17, and QB Patrick Mahomes easily won the award with 48 of 50 first-place votes.

Now Hurts enters 2023 as the No. 4 option behind Mahomes (+700) and QBs Joe Burrow (+750) and Josh Allen (+800) in the MVP market. That doesn’t make sense to me.

In the NFC, Hurts has an easier path than Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen have to double-digit wins and a top-two seed. He has improved every year of his career. He has a top-three offensive line and pass-catching units. He can produce as both a passer and runner.

With +1200 odds (at FanDuel and Caesars), Hurts has a 7.69% implied probability to win MVP. Given his talent and circumstances, I think his true odds are around 10%.

You can tail the Hurts MVP bet on FanDuel, where you can take advantage of a No Sweat First Bet of up to $1,000 when you sign up below!