Each week, Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca walk you through their favorite ways to approach your pick'em pool. Which games should you eat the chalk, where should you look for leverage, and which trendy upsets should you avoid?

We've assigned a “confidence score” to each game, with 10 being “most confident,” to help you sort out your picks in those formats, too. 

Let’s dive into all 16 games for Week 2.

Bills at Dolphins

LaMarca: Dolphins (3/10 confidence rating). I have tremendous respect for Josh Allen, but the Dolphins are the better team overall. Mike McDaniel is also 9-6 as a home favorite, including 7-3 before the season reaches December. The short week tends to favor the better team, with favorites going 132-105-4 ATS on Thursday Night Football. I’ll take the Dolphins to win outright.

Geoff: Dolphins (4/10 confidence rating). I may be a little too high on the Dolphins from a confidence perspective but I do like them to win outright this week. They got by a tough Week 1 matchup with Jacksonville where they held the Jaguars to zero points in the second half and held Trevor Lawerence to a 57% completion rate. Miami at home is 13-2 straight up as a home favorite since the start of 2022. 

Jets at Titans

LaMarca: Jets (9/10). The Jets looked awful defensively on Monday Night Football, but the 49ers are capable of doing that to their opponents. They’ll draw a much easier matchup in Week 2 vs. the Titans. Aaron Rodgers looked the part in Week 1, so with some better production from the D, I still think the Jets are going to be a really good football team.

Geoff: Jets (8/10). I wanted to be contrarian and take the Titans at first glance, but after rewatching portions of the MNF game, I think the Jets are still quite good. You can’t fault a team for getting run up on by the 49ers and New York has a lot of good things going for them, including a matchup with a turnover-prone QB this week. Stop Tony Pollard and the Jets likely win this game going away.

Looking for projected game lines and spreads? Our NFL game model has data for every Week 2 game. 

Chargers at Panthers

LaMarca: Chargers (5/10). This is a spot where I like the underdog to cover the spread, but the Chargers should win the game outright. It’s a tough travel spot, but the Panthers looked so bad in Week 1 that I can’t possibly pick them to pull off an upset.

Geoff: Chargers (7/10). I thought the Chargers were impressive in Week 1, from the standpoint that they just let an inferior team beat themselves. They ranked 4th in EPA per play on defense and managed four sacks on Gardner Minshew. Now they get a weak rush defense and another sack-prone QB in Bryce Young. I expect the Chargers to take care of business.

Saints at Cowboys

LaMarca: Cowboys (9/10). The Cowboys are bullies. When they’re playing at home against a team they’re favored to beat, they tend to get the job done. Dak Prescott is 38-12 straight up as a home favorite, including a perfect 14-0 in that split over the past two years.

Geoff: Cowboys (5/10). I do like the Cowboys, they have a ton of talent, but am keeping the confidence level average on this one. The Saints' defense has plenty of great players and both teams went to work on poor QBs in Week 1. Ultimately, I don’t like New Orleans enough to fade a 6.0-point favorite, but I do think this game could be closer than people think. 

Raiders at Ravens

LaMarca: Ravens (10/10). The Raiders could do absolutely nothing against the Chargers in Week 1. The Ravens are even better, and this game will be played at 1 p.m. ET. It should be ugly.

Geoff: Ravens (9/10). The Raiders are a very dysfunctional team. In their Week 1 loss, they allowed big gashing runs to the injury-prone JK Dobbins, were 27th in EPA per play on offense, and dead last in EPA per rush. Derrick Henry will likely rush for 100+ yards and Baltimore may knock Minshew out of this game. 

Buccaneers at Lions

LaMarca: Lions (8/10). The Bucs looked great in Week 1, but they were supposed to against an awful Commanders defense. I’m still pessimistic about their 2024 outlook, especially against good teams like the Lions.

Geoff: Lions (7/10). The Bucs Week 1 performance was made to look better than it was by the Commanders' defense. They can’t run the ball well and Detroit’s D-Line will likely do what Washington’s couldn’t, which is sack Baker Mayfield multiple times and stop some of those big plays downfield from happening. 

Looking for more free NFL picks? Our experts put their best bets in Fantasy Life's NFL Bet tracker every day. 

Seahawks at Patriots

LaMarca: Seahawks (3/10). I’m simply not ready to live in a world where the Patriots are 2-0. They’re going to be better than expected as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center, but the Seahawks are still the better team.

Geoff: Seahawks (9/10). The Seahawks defense looked legit to me in Week 1. They held Bo Nix to 3.28 yards per attempt and very nearly pitched a second-half shutout. If the Seahawks don’t have the same jitters on offense they did in Week 1, this one should be an easy Seattle win. 

Browns at Jaguars

LaMarca: Jaguars (6/10). I’m down on both of these teams from a long-term perspective, but someone has to win this week. I’ll take my chances with the team that was leading the Dolphins 17-7 instead of the one that was thoroughly dismantled by the Cowboys.

Geoff: Jaguars (7/10). Jacksonville isn’t great offensively and we don’t talk about Trevor Lawrence’s struggles (57% comp rate in Week 1) enough but I do think they have enough juice to get by the Browns. Cleveland looked uninspired on offense without Joe Flacco and Jacksonville’s defense is good at bringing pressure (3 sacks Week 1).  

49ers at Vikings

LaMarca: 49ers (7/10). I was impressed by both of these teams in Week 1, but the 49ers are the 49ers. They absolutely steamrolled everyone during the regular season in 2023, and they look like one of the best teams in football once again.

Geoff: 49ers (7/10). The Minnesota defense is going to have its hands full in this game. Yes, the Vikings succeeded in making Daniel Jones look horrendous, but even if they do stop the run game they’ll have Brock Purdy throwing passes instead of Jones. I look for Purdy and potentially Aiyuk to have a monster game and get the 49ers the road win. 

Colts at Packers

LaMarca: Colts (8/10). I’m a big fan of Shane Steichen, and the Colts put their big-play prowess on display last week vs. the Texans. I’m happy to ride them against Malik Willis and a defense that got shredded for 34 points in Week 1.

Geoff: Colts (5/10). Ultimately, I think the Colts win this game but I am wary of getting too high on them in this spot. Matt LaFleur is a very good coach who has a 5-1 win-loss record as a home underdog. Still, he didn’t have Malik Willis under center for those games and I think that’s reason enough to lean Colts. 

Giants at Commanders

LaMarca: Giants (4/10). Picking the Giants feels gross, but are they really that much worse than the Commanders? Rookie QBs in the first three weeks of the season are now 3-20-1 ATS over their past 24 starts.

Geoff: Commanders (1/10). I hate this game. The Giants were the second-worst offense in EPA per play metrics in Week 1, while the Commanders were the worst defense in that same stat. Jayden Daniels should be better as a passer than he was in his rookie start against a good defense and that may be enough to propel the Commanders to a close win, but this game could go 100 different ways and none would surprise me. 

Rams at Cardinals

LaMarca: Cardinals (1/10). This is a true coin-flip for me. I think both of these offenses can score points, so it’s the type of game where whoever has the ball last could win. However, the absence of Puka Nacua pushes me toward the Cardinals.

Geoff: Rams (7/10). We’re very far apart on how we see this game. The Cardinals' defense is #notgood and ranked 31st in EPA per play against the Bills. Matthew Stafford may have lost a weapon in Puka Nacua but the Rams have used Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson to fill voids at WR in the past, and now have rookie Jordan Whittington in the mix, as well. Kyler Murray is a great fantasy QB but will have his hands full with the Rams rush in this game. Sean McVay is 28-17 straight up in divisional games for his career. 

Bengals at Chiefs

LaMarca: Chiefs (7/10). The Bengals should be extremely focused after a disastrous Week 1, but I’m tired of picking against Patrick Mahomes and losing.

Geoff: Bengals (2/10). I’ll take a swing on a big upset this week. Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor have been great at outperforming in these spots, posting a 52.4% win rate (third highest in the league) when placed as a moneyline underdog (they’re +6.0 underdogs this week). For what it’s worth, the Bengals' defense  wasn’t terrible last week so, if anything, they could keep this game close enough for Burrow to perform some magic at the end. 

Steelers at Broncos

LaMarca: Steelers (5/10). Mike Tomlin is a much better coach as an underdog than a favorite, but Bo Nix was a disaster in Week 1. He averaged just 1.14 adjusted yards per attempt, and his numbers would’ve been even worse if not for garbage time. I’m not sure how things get any better against T.J. Watt and company.

Geoff: Broncos (2/10). Another gross game. Bo Nix was up against a tough secondary in Week 1 and faces another tough one in Week 2. This time, however, he’ll be at home where the thin Denver air can take the wind out of the sails of pass rushers and DBs. The Steelers failed to score a TD in Week 1 so it’s not like I’m picking against an offensive juggernaut here or anything. 

Bears at Texans

LaMarca: Texans (9/10). The Bears picked up the flukiest win of the early season in Week 1. They’re going to need to play significantly better to hang with the Texans, who absolutely rolled offensively vs. the Colts.

Geoff: Texans (8/10). The Bears managed fewer than 100 passing yards in Week 1 and didn’t score an offensive TD. They’ll now face an offense led by CJ Stroud that can punish them through the air, something the Titans mostly failed to do in Week 1. 

Falcons at Eagles

LaMarca: Eagles (6/10). I like the Falcons to potentially cover the spread in a bounce-back spot, but asking them to win the game outright might be a bit too much.

Geoff: Eagles (6/10). Jalen Hurts is a beast at home. Since 2021, the Eagles have the best home record when placed as a home favorite in the betting market, going 18-3 straight up. The Falcons’ offense looks like it’s going to take some time to gel and I’m not 100% sold that Kirk Cousins is 100% after Week 1.