As I alluded to in today's edition of the Betting Life Newsletter, what follows are my picks and predictions for the Week 15 late slate.
For my thoughts on the 1 PM games, click here.
Week 15 Predictions - Late Slate
Patriots (3-10) at Cardinals (6-7) Pick
Will the real Arizona Cardinals please stand up? Our preseason ‘Arizona To Make Playoffs’ bet looked pretty good entering their Week 11 bye … until it didn't.
The Redbirds proceeded to drop three games in a row, all in the division with two against the rival Seahawks. With only four weekends left, Kyler Murray’s going to have to stop throwing picks if they stand a chance, even against the struggling Patriots. And the schematic matchup isn't great for K1—the Pats play a ton of man coverage against which Murray struggles mightily (-0.13 EPA/dropback, 57% completion rate).
Similar to the Panthers, don’t expect New England to surrender for a second as they work toward the future. Drake Maye’s looking better every week—now it’s a matter of which position players come along for the ride again next year.
LEAN: NE +6.5 (-115)
Buccaneers (7-6) at Chargers (8-5) Pick
Tampa Bay just took over sole possession of the NFC South by laying waste to the NFL’s dregs in three straight games off the bye. Hey, you can only beat the team on the schedule, right?
That task will become increasingly difficult against the eight-win Chargers, set to return star WR Ladd McConkey back into the fray. I must admit, I’m torn here. Is this newly inspired, ferocious Buccaneer D for real? In case you’ve missed it, Tampa’s revamped their blitz/pressure plan and now ranks second in EPA/play as the top-scoring defensive unit this month. You heard it here first. Call me crazy all you’d like—if this trend sticks, Baker’s Bucs can hang with anyone in a playoff game, including Detroit.
As high as I’ve gotten on the Chargers this season, I’m suddenly terrified to bet on them after literally and figuratively losing a step when J.K. Dobbins went down.
LEAN: TB +3 (-115)
Bills (10-3) at Lions (12-1) Pick
Three words. Must see television.
I always manage to take a little flak for never recommending betting games with the most eyeballs on them. While those two things aren’t directly related, they are a little. Betting is about price and perceived edge. As soon as the public got a hold of this potential Super Bowl preview in the Motor City, our game total predictably shot up four whole points since.
It’s hard to bash Detroit, managing to win despite a tsunami of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. However, outside Green Bay (who scored 31), the competition lacked true firepower. This obviously won’t be the case against Buffalo, one of only two teams with a higher EPA/play on offense than the Lions themselves. Josh Allen and the Bills are too versatile for me to oppose—especially if I can cash this one losing by a field goal.
LEAN: BUF +3 (-128)
Colts (6-7) at Broncos (8-5) Pick
More premature playoff football! It truly is the most wonderful time of the year. The Colts and Broncos stand nose-to-nose on the bubble’s edge in the AFC. Indy’s on a bit of a run, winning two of three since returning Anthony Richardson under center. This time, however, they’ll have to beat a team with a winning record that frankly, I believe to be better in every phase.
First, Denver put the league on notice—the defense returned on a mission this season. Next, Sean Payton shows us all he still has what it takes to scheme a young QB in the best positions to succeed. Then to top it all off, Denver spends the last three weeks putting on a clinic, leading the NFL in points/game while gaining 6.0 yards/play during that span.
I’m a little worried about the Bronco secondary with Riley Moss out again but still think they outlast the Colts. Indy’s 2024 ride ends today.
LEAN: DEN -4 (-115)
Steelers (10-3) at Eagles (11-2) Pick
We tried to tell Mike Tomlin but he wouldn’t listen. During the preseason we talked about the dangers of building an offense almost exclusively built around a single player. George Pickens represented nearly a quarter of the entire team’s receiving production when he got hurt. What do we think will happen pulling a massive piece like that from an already stressed game plan without even a replacement-level WR behind him?
It's easy to see this falling apart for Pittsburgh.
Philly’s won nine in a row without even playing their best football. Right now, no one’s as good as the class of Pennsylvania.
LEAN: PHI -5.5 (-110)
Sunday Night Football Week 15 Prediction
Packers (9-4) at Seahawks (8-5) Pick
NFL schedule makers continue on a tear with perhaps their greatest season to date. Maybe Packers versus Seahawks isn’t as highly anticipated as Bills and Lions, but it’s close. Seattle may have one fewer win than Green Bay, yet they’re the only division leader playing tonight.
GB currently sits third in the North despite the fourth-best record in the NFC. They’re fighting off the Rams, who can pull within a game of SEA with a loss. Keep in mind L.A. not only has a better in-conference record than Seattle, but they also meet head-to-head in Week 18 in a potential win-and-you’re-in scenario.
So the stakes couldn't be higher starting tonight for two teams playing their best defense of the season. Expect both sides to try and establish the run in a pivotal game for the future of about a half-dozen teams.
LEAN: GB/SEA u46.5 (-118)
