In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
It’s game day! Nothing beats a quick once-over on what to expect. So each Sunday, I crack open my very worn and beaten marble notebook to share my personal hand notes to help you finalize your prep on today’s NFL slate.
I’ll outline the early window below. You can find the afternoon slate analysis at the bottom of this breakdown.
Falcons (6-6) at Vikings (10-2): I don't know about you, but I’m feeling a deep sense of appreciation for so many borderline playoff games in the first week of December. Two teams heading in opposite directions, chasing a common goal. Minnesota’s looking strong, racking five wins in a row against tough defenses. I’ll be on watch for the fur to fly today in a classic Justin Jefferson blow-up game. Expect lots of passing as both squads defend the run well—but the way Kirk Cousins is slinging it lately (0 TD, 6 INT Last 3G), that could wind up being a bad thing for the dirty birds. LEAN: MIN -5.5 (-110)
Saints (4-8) at Giants (2-10): Hey, they can’t all be winners. If it wasn’t for the octo-box, I doubt we’d be able to prove this game even existed. The majority of you normal humans should simulate to end. Meanwhile, maniacs like myself will be watching to see if the Giants can mess up this dumpster fire of a season any further by winning. New Orleans would be a TD favorite if not decimated by injuries, perhaps more than any other team. What could Klint Kubiak even have left in that strategic bag without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, or Taysom Hill? Down to just Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara on offense may still be enough to beat Big Blue, more focused on the first overall pick than a meaningless win. LEAN: NO -4.5 (-110)
Jaguars (2-10) at Titans (3-9): If you’ve been with us all season (thanks, by the way), you know there’s always one. I start analyzing games before looking at the board so as to avoid appealing to the authority of the books. This offers an unblemished perspective (good), but also often puts you in direct contradiction with the sharpest market in the world (not as good). Forget all the offensive stats in this one. Mac Jones resets the Jaguars’ expectations and don’t look now—Will Levis without the backbreaking picks might be good at football. It’s the defenses I’m struggling to reconcile with the public. Why? Here’s a clue, follow your nose. They stink. Both the Titans and Jaguars allowed 29-plus points/game over this past month. And the game totals available under 40? Sign me up. LEAN: JAX/TEN O39.5 (-110)
Raiders (2-10) at Bucs (6-6): Thank you Baker Mayfield for adding another meaningful game to the pile. Tampa clawed all the way back into the divisional conversation by winning two straight to tie the Falcons in the win column. Despite a softer matchup than their feathered counterparts today, it’s still tough sailing ahead after dropping both of those head-to-heads. I doubt Las Vegas can blockade the Bucs’ offensive ship, but I’ll really be watching to see whether or not TB can step up and stop someone on defense when necessary. LEAN: TB -6.5
Browns (3-9) at Steelers (9-3): It won’t be the same without the snow, but I still can’t think of a three-win team I’d want to avoid more than the Browns. How can you not love Jameis Winston? From the speeches to the leadership and on-field sacrifices, all rolled into a powder keg of football goodness. Cleveland faces a very sober Mike Tomlin’s Steelers—the yin to their yang. Honestly, I’m not sure what to expect, which usually points me in the direction of regression to the mean. Nature will correct. Pittsburgh gets its revenge, this time in a slugfest. LEAN: u43.5 (-110)
Panthers (3-9) at Eagles (10-2): I’m calling it. It’s over, Johnny. The Panthers magical month-long competitive run comes to a crashing end today in South Philly. Viable on offense lately or not, the Panthers couldn’t stop a slug race with a salt shaker. Simply put, Vic Fangio’s defense cannot be penetrated. Check this stat out since the Eagles win streak started in Week 6. Not only is PHI the NFL’s top-scoring defense, but they’re doing it by allowing an absurd 4.1 yards per play. For reference, no one else is below 5.0. What?!? Every bit of that should boggle the football mind. The sheer interior pressure created by the likes of Jalen Carter and company wrecks gameplans, manifesting as a top-10 pressure unit despite ranking bottom-5 in blitz rate. To be clear, I’m not throwing the baby out with the bathwater. We’ll be back to bet on CAR another day. I do think their arrow’s pointing up and Bryce Young can be a winning QB—just not today. Not sure I’ve ever recommended a two-TD favorite before, but 28-10 is definitely on the table today. LEAN: PHI -13.5 (-110)
Jets (3-9) at Dolphins (5-7): Somebody make it stop. End this Jets’ season already, please. Good for me at least, though not buying back into this flaming trash heap at any point. As if the mountain of disappointment couldn’t reach higher heights, the injury bug finally popped in to say hello. Hi! Breece Hall has been ruled out, C.J. Mosley was placed on IR, and Sauce Gardner is doubtful. Not great, Bob. With only one win in nine games, New York’s eyes move to the future. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ loss to Green Bay last week forced them into a must-win spot with just a 10% chance to make the postseason—and there’s nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal. LEAN: MIA -5.5 (-115)
A Happy NFL Sunday to all of you from everyone here at the Betting Life Newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Watercooler: The top five player props for Week 14
- The New York Prop Exchange: Clash Of The Titan
- No Cap: ALVINNNNNNN!
- Sharp Hunter: A two-bag bet
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The top five player props for today’s slate. How much Will Levis is too much?
✍️ Injury notes to monitor … this affects betting, too.
💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.
📊 Projections? We have projections for every Week 14 player.
🤑 The players are paid to score, so why can’t you be? … Week 14 Anytime TDs.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Clash Of The Titan
THE BET: Will Levis Over 211.5 Passing Yards (-110; FanDuel)
Can you get fired for Will Levis propaganda? Let’s find out (and hope the Freezing Cold Takes account isn’t reading today). After missing several weeks due to a sprained AC shoulder joint, sophomore QB Will Levis has played a heck of a lot better than the Titans’ 1-3 record might suggest. Hold onto your hats for some Laghezza’s “Believe it or not!” …
In that span, Will Levis’ ...
- +0.26 EPA/dropback is 9th overall, better than Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson
- 101.4 Passer Rating is 10th overall, higher than Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen
- 8.3 Yards Per Attempt is 5th overall, better than Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford
Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s easily a bottom-3 secondary, with a very strong argument for very worst in the NFL
- -0.29 EPA/Dropback: Last
- 110.2 Opposer Passer Rating: Last
- 70.4% Completion Rate Allowed: Next To Last
- 273.3 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: Last
- 56 +20-Yard Completions Allowed: Last
- 6.3 Quarterback Hits Per Game: Last
Every single non-injured QB to face this Jaguar defense except Deshaun Watson (shocker) has passed for more than the 212 yards we need today from Levis. Come on now, where’s the respect? Even our very own resident wet blanket projector Matthew Freedman has Levis going over this prop ( ... by the hook).
No Cap🏈🧢—ALVINNNNNNN!
THE BETs: Alvin Kamara Over 18.5 Attempts (-115; FanDuel) & Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110; BetMGM)
I hate speaking with too much certainty when it comes to making predictions but barring injury, I don’t see how we miss this (gulp). The theory of the case couldn’t be simpler. Despite a slew of injuries, New Orleans enters as a road favorite versus a horrible Giants team fine with losing. The only skill position player remaining from the Saints’ week lineup card is workhorse RB Alvin Kamara, who’s put the team on his back recently. Already known to shoulder a massive relative load, his touch share actually legged up again (image below) as more players in black and gold head for the dreaded blue tent.
The matchup couldn’t be juicier either—calling the Giants run-stopping unit bad might be an understatement. On the season, Big Blues’ defensive run metrics rank among the very worst.
- 145.8 Rush Yards Per Game: 29th
- 5.1 Yards Allowed Per Rush: T-Last
- 3.61 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 31st
- 17 20-Plus-Yard Rushes: Last
Expect the Saints to crash the line early and often with their favorite hammer against an injured NYG front seven. The Giants would be happy with a loss and Kamara’s going to help them get it.
Where The Sharps Are Leaning On Sunday
- By Mike Mutnansky
- Source: Sharp Hunter
If you’ve been a regular reader of our Sharp Hunter NFL analysis here in the Betting Life Newsletter and thought, “Hey, these guys have been on a roll.”
You’re right.
10-3 ATS on the Sharp Hunter plays here last month. I sometimes bet with the Sharps and other times against them.
But using Sharp Hunter to see where the sharp money is going has been the key.
But we’re only as good as our next play—and our sharps have a bevy of ideas on games they like for Week 14’s Sunday slate. It’s a great week to check out Sharp Hunter.
One of those ideas is on the total in Arizona where the Cardinals host the Seahawks. We have a total of 44.5 as of Saturday night and we’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score (💰💰) on the UNDER.
I am betting with the sharps here on Sunday.
One of the reasons we liked the Seahawks in Week 12 was their improved defense—it’s clear rookie HC Mike McDonald found something during the team’s bye and you can see that improvement in their rapidly rising DVOA ranking.
Arizona has had a similar defensive renaissance—they’re up to #12 (SEA #11). In their last three home games, they’ve allowed ZERO offensive TDs.
The Seattle offense has also played much slower out of the bye—it is the seventh slowest offense in FTN’s snap/sec metric. On the other hand, Arizona has the ball for long stretches of the game but ends up with FGs and no TDs. That’s good for the under.
We got big injury news on Saturday when the Seahawks ruled out Kenneth Walker. That’s a big blow for Seattle and could hamper their ability to move the ball.
Trend is Our Friend: This from the Action Network—Divisional Games in Week 11 or later with a total of 44.5 or higher = 59% to the UNDER
The signals are there—the sharps at Sharp Hunter are liking the UNDER 44.5 in Arizona for Cardinals and Seahawks.
I’m betting with them. Let’s keep the good run going.
