In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by 1440:

Giddy Up!

And welcome back for the next part of our MLB team preview series, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason betting markets.

Today, we put a stay on the left coast in the American League West division with 2023’s World Champion Texas Rangers and those elephants balancing on baseballs — the artists formerly known as the Oakland Athletics.

And of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t wrap up with my favorite related future bet?

Let’s kick it off with some stats …

Top-10 Team Leaderboard, 2024: Barrel Rate (BRL%)

  • Yankees: 10.5%
  • Braves: 10.0%
  • Dodgers: 9.2%
  • Orioles: 8.9%
  • Red Sox: 8.9%
  • Mariners: 8.9%
  • Mets: 8.8%
  • Giants: 8.6%
  • Athletics: 8.5%
  • Rockies: 8.2%

It's always important to understand all the new analytics we baseball geeks are using, so for reference's sake, a barrel is defined as:

"a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 miles per hour with a launch angle between 26–30 degrees"

… and for every mile per hour over 98, the range of launch angles that qualify as a barrel increases.

A quick few notes and then let’s jump in …

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute! 📕

🏈 To my fantasy football people, we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

Let’s go West! Click this button below 👇 to head to Fantasy LIfe’s futures page!

WHO’S THE FAVORITE IN THE AL WEST?

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It’s 55 in New York today. YOU CAN FEEL IT IN THE AIR!!

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🔢 NFBC ADP — it’s time to start studying.

👀 Pete’s “Goddammit” here was perfect.

🏈 Few do it better than Mike Sando. This thread is 👨‍🍳

🎉 Topps Celebration seems awesome. No idea what it is but I want in.

🎮 Is anyone else playing Sports Connections?

⚾🤠 MLB Team Preview—Texas Rangers 🤠⚾

Couldn’t think of a line more fitting for the 2025 Texas Rangers than the famous unattributed cowboy quote, “Every sunrise is a new trail to ride; make it count.” On paper, and I stress on paper, this team’s as good as anyone top to bottom, on both sides of the ball. 

Just one year removed from a World Series title, a disappointing 2024 season found TEX at 78-84, eight full games out of the final Wild Card. Despite overperforming in both extra-inning (9-2) and one-run (26-20) games, the Rangers couldn’t stay healthy enough to compete. The front office apparently likes the weight of that giant diamond ring on their finger, spending the offseason in acquisition mode. The Rangers traded for slugger Jake Burger and signed another power bat in Joc Pederson… as if they weren’t terrifying enough in the batter’s box. Also, bullpen moves tend to generally go unreported and widely unnoticed but not around here at MB Betting Life. Texas added five (yes, five) new faces to the bullpen—Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong, Hoby Milner, and Luke Jackson.

On the pitching side, this time around Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher on the planet from a per-inning perspective is ready for Opening Day—with rookie phenom Kumar Rocker waiting in the wings. 

Rangers’ faithful have every reason to be supremely excited for another deep run. 

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Marcus Semien, 2B: .247 / 82 / 72 / 20 / 12
  2. Corey Seager, SS: .284 / 78 / 88 / 32 / 1
  3. Wyatt Langford, LF: .262 / 86 / 72 / 24 / 18
  4. Joc Pederson, DH: .240 / 57 / 57 / 21 / 4
  5. Adolis García, RF: .226 / 76 / 75 / 27 / 12
  6. Josh Jung, 3B: .242 / 58 / 59 / 17 / 4
  7. Evan Carter, CF: .242 / 59 / 44 / 12 / 13
  8. Jake Burger, 1B: .241 / 73 / 81 / 29 / 2
  9. Jonah Heim, C: .220 / 39 / 42 / 12 / 1

Hitting Overview: Opposing starting pitchers may want to consider taking a day off rather than wreck their ratios against this lineup. One through nine, there’s not a single dead spot, light hitter, or automatic out. According to Derek Carty’s EVAnalytics team projections, Texas ranks fifth overall in weighted on-base average but first in the American League — even ahead of my Yankees. That should say more to you than a few paragraphs of my usual ranting.

The Rangers bring hitters that combine a solid approach, lots of contact up top, and top-tier power throughout. Four hitters slugged over 23 homers, five posted a double-digit barrel rate and a remarkable seven players put up a +11% Pulled FBLD rate. When Jake Burger, who racked up 29 bombs last season, is slated to bat eighth, the general manager’s doing something right. 

Outside this generation’s Iron Man Marcus Semien, who’s missed just 14 games in seven years (!), a running through-line for this team’s success will be health— which is simultaneously impossible to predict yet seemingly so obvious when it goes sideways. Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and even Jake Burger have a notable track record for missed time. That said, they’ve all reported to camp fully healthy and ready to rock. Put the Rangers on the short list of teams that can lead MLB in scoring running away. 

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Jacob deGrom, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  3. Jon Gray, RHP:⭐⭐⭐
  4. Tyler Mahle, RHP:⭐⭐⭐
  5. Cody Bradford, LHP:⭐⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: Did I mention health as a major determinant of the Rangers’ future? On paper, you’d be hard-pressed to find a stronger starting five top to bottom than this Texas collective. That said, I lost count at four Tommy Johns and a laundry list of throwing arm-related IL stints. 

Will every pitcher listed above make +25 starts? If so, look out. Will any pitcher make +25 starts? Unfortunately, that’s also firmly in the range of outcomes as well.

If Texas has a type (there’s today’s mention!), it’s big-time production via home run suppression and command/control. To start, not a single projected SP’s HR/9 sat above 1.2 in 2024, and only Jon Gray posted an xERA over 3.86 in 2024. Not one player posted a walk rate over 7.1% because only Tyler Mahle threw a ball more than 33.0% of the time. For reference, the league-average ball rate’s right around 36%, so opposing hitters know they’ll be seeing strikes … and lots of them.

Even Cody Bradford brings massive potential to the table pulling up the rear. Not many pitchers, let alone an SP5 can claim a 1.01 WHIP, .632 OPS, and .284 xwOBA. The way things are heading to start the season, the Rangers could get the Yankee treatment from sportsbooks and not be listed as an underdog all season. Depth’s also really important when anticipating a marathon MLB season, and Texas has that covered as well. Former third overall pick in the 2022 draft Kumar Rocker’s the next man up, itching to show off how his MiLB career 34.0% K-BB (!) will play in the big show. 

WHAT ARE JACOB DEGROM’S ODDS TO LEAD MLB IN STRIKEOUTS?

⚾🐘 MLB Team Preview—Sacramento Athletics Of Oakland, By Way Of Las Vegas 🐘⚾

Wish I had thought far ahead enough to pair the Athletics with the Angels—they’re both so similar in construction, I could’ve saved some time. Well, we’ve got another near 100-loss American League West team with a decent offense that spent the offseason attempting to bolster the rotation. Not much need for a tease on my betting take for the upcoming season, the A’s good hitting plus bad pitching means they’re a “BTO” squad— bet the over.

The big question (besides whether ATH can avoid a fourth straight +90-loss season) is how their new home stadium, Sutter Health Park, will play. Current home to the minor league Sacramento River Cats, the outfield dimensions are as follows:

  • Left Field: Sacramento, 330 feet // Coliseum, 330 feet
  • Center Field: 403 feet // Coliseum, 400 feet
  • Right Field: 325 feet. // Coliseum, 330 feet

Expect the Athletics’ new outfield to play similarly to Oakland—at least until the weather warms and humidity spikes. The main difference you’ll notice in the image below is the vastly reduced amount of foul territory behind the dish, another boost to offenses on both sides.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Lawrence Butler, LF: .244 / 75 / 71 / 25 / 14
  2. Brent Rooker, DH: .249 / 83 / 88 / 35 / 7
  3. JJ Bleday, CF: .229 / 70 / 68 / 22 / 4
  4. Shea Langeliers, C: .230 / 62 / 68 / 27 / 4
  5. Tyler Soderstrom, 1B: .229 / 57 / 62 / 20 / 1
  6. Zack Gelof, 2B: .223 / 72 / 57 / 19 / 21
  7. Seth Brown, RF: .225 / 41 / 43 / 15 / 4
  8. Jacob Wilson, SS: .269 / 50 / 43 / 6 / 4
  9. Gio Urshela, 3B: .254 / 43 / 44 / 8 / 1

Hitting Overview: Not to exaggerate and rate this Athletic lineup with the very best in MLB or anything, but going by general market temperature they’re being severely undersung. Despite giving off some “Major League” vibes via a lineup devoid of a household name, the top half’s going to give opposing pitchers fits.

Each of their projected top four hitters slugged +20 homers in 2024 with a +.196 ISO, double-digit Pulled FBLD rate, and maximum Exit Velocity over 113.0 mph. Toss in Tyler Soderstrom and four out of five posted +44% Hard Hit and +11% Barrel rates with a +.410 xwOBAcon. Those are legitimate underpinning power metrics by anyone’s standards. Come summertime, this offense should be a lot of fun.

The bottom third of the order leaves a bit to be desired and could still be up for grabs depending on Spring Training play. Both Zack Gelof and Seth Brown have very productive seasons on the ledger so you can see why someone could be pretty high on the offense at least. Will it be enough to improve three games from last year and clear the 071.5 (110) win total? Not without solid starting pitching, it won’t …

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Luis Severino, RHP:⭐⭐⭐
  2. Jeffrey Springs, LHP:⭐⭐⭐
  3. JP Sears, LHP:⭐
  4. Osvaldo Bido, RHP:⭐
  5. Mitch Spence, RHP:⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: First off, my utmost respect to any bad team that blows the dust off their wallets to improve through free agency. That said, let’s just say I have my doubts regarding the execution. Sacramento (still feels so weird typing that) went out and signed 31-year-old former Met and Yankee Luis Severino to a three-year deal at just over $67M. Now three full seasons removed Tommy John surgery and coming off his first healthy season since 2018, Severino boasts a robust six-pitch arsenal with a central focus on command. While the strikeouts dropped precipitously from his peak seasons, he’s done a good job of working low in the zone and keeping the ball down—something sure to help throughout this move.

The Athletics also traded Joe Boyle, Will Simpson, plus pitching prospect Jacob Watters for former Ray Jeffrey Springs. The 32-year-old veteran southpaw’s another member of the Tommy John club, looking to regain peak form in 2025. You may remember his breakout 2022 season where he posted a 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP combo with a +20% K-BB. While I don’t think Springs is necessarily a bad pitcher, anyone with a career +40% flyball rate that fails to top just 90 mph on the gun scares me. He’s going to need exceedingly good control and movement on his secondaries to succeed.

The back half of this rotation was a major part of the 93-loss campaign last year—and there’s little reason to think that changes much in 2025. Osvaldo Bido’s shown flashes at points but given the combination of a .250 BABIP and absurdly low 3.8% HR/FB on a 48.8% Flyball rate screams negative regression.

Like I said at the open, I don’t expect them to win many games but there should be a metric ton of scoring. Wait for the season to start, and bet the overs.

CAN LAWRENCE BUTLER WIN THE AL MVP?

🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do.

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account’s at $0.

THE BET: Texas Rangers Regular-Season Wins Bands 83-88 Wins (+260) 0.25u On DraftKings

The introduction of team win bands continues to push me away from win totals altogether. Here’s what I mean …

I laid out (what I hope at least was) a pretty compelling case for the Rangers' success this year. So, intuitively, I ran to check their baseline win total, which is set at 85.5 (-110). Before acting, of course, I did my due diligence and looked for their odds to make the playoffs—currently set at (-125). For reference, it took exactly 86 games to make the postseason out of the American League in 2024. No real edge to be had. The hunt continues…

Am I confident enough to let my hard-earned money hibernate in the casino’s pockets for six months knowing the division improved across the board? And what about the glaringly obvious health risk? Hmmmm, my answer’s no.

So my next step is to check their win bands on DKSB—and once again I find myself befuddled at the price of betting on the book’s accuracy. Texas’ line is O85.5 for a good reason, tons of hard work goes into these numbers, which have also been available and vulnerable to movement for a month at this point.

Frankly, I’m still surprised we can bet a win cluster covering the established baseline (52.4% implied probability) by two games in each direction for a chance at 2.6x (27.8% implied probability). 

The only thing more important to me than winning a bet is keeping risk strictly managed and avoiding being over-leveraged.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

WHO ARE OUR EXPERTS’ FUTURES BETS?