I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the season-long player props market and publishing a series of articles highlighting bets I like.

Here are my most recent articles.

In this article, I'm looking at 2024 QB rushing props for veterans (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

Lamar Jackson - Ravens

Over 675.5 Yards Rushing

  • Bet: -110 (DraftKings)
  • Projection: 778.1

I usually loathe betting season-long overs. Generally, unders tend to be sharp.

But I think QB rushing props are a possible exception to the under-is-better guideline.

While sportsbooks are often close to competent at projecting passing production for QBs, rushing production is secondary for the position and thus likelier to be something the books get wrong.

In fantasy football, think about how much the draft market for years undervalued and mispriced rushing QBs. I imagine that something similar might also be happening with how sportsbooks approach QBs who rely on rushing for an elevated share of their overall production.

And that leads me to Jackson, who has been one of the best and most consistent running QBs since entering the league in 2018.

As I mentioned in my article on 11 stats from 2023 that mean something for 2024, even though Jackson rushed for "only" 51.3 yards per game last year, he still up up 821 yards rushing in his second MVP campaign, and he led all regular starters with his 11% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Utilization Report).

Despite running less often, Jackson still has a high rushing production floor, evidenced by the fact that he has literally never rushed for fewer than 675.5 yards in a season, including his rookie year, when he started not even half the season.

  • 2018 (seven starts): 695 yards rushing
  • 2019 (15 starts): 1,206 yards rushing
  • 2020 (15 starts): 1,005 yards rushing
  • 2021 (12 starts): 767 yards rushing
  • 2022 (12 starts): 764 yards rushing
  • 2023 (16 starts): 821 yards rushing

I've said this before, and I'll say it again, because I think it's reasonable: If you give me the opportunity at inexpensive odds to bet that something that has never happened before will once again not happen, I'll probably do it.

Josh Allen - Bills

Over 480.5 Yards Rushing

  • Bet: -105 (DraftKings)
  • Projection: 541.0

Gone are WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Without them, I can envision Allen running at an elevated rate relative to last year, when he still cleared this mark with 524 yards. In fact, only once (2020, his first year with Diggs) has Allen failed to go over 480.5 yards rushing.

And perhaps more important than the offseason departure of Diggs and Davis was the midseason dismissal of OC Ken Dorsey, who was replaced by QBs coach Joe Brady as the playcaller.

After Brady assumed control of the offense, Allen exhibited significant rushing splits (including playoffs).

  • With Brady (nine games): 424 yards | 19% designed rush rate | 9% scramble rate
  • With Dorsey (10 games): 246 yards | 10% designed rush rate | 7% scramble rate

If his rushing usage this year is anything like his post-Dorsey usage last year, Allen should absolutely crush this number.

Anthony Richardson - Colts

Over 525.5 Yards Rushing

  • Bet: -112 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 622.8

Richardson was a raw prospect who started just one season in college while completing just 54.7% of his undergraduate attempts.

And then last year as a rookie he started just four games and managed a completion rate of only 59.5%.

And yet he's often the No. 5 QB off the board in 2024 Underdog fantasy drafts (per our Fantasy Life ADP Tool).

That should give you a sense of the extent to which fantasy investors expect Richardson to tear it up on the ground this season.

Even though his prop of 525.5 yards is high among QBs, it's almost certainly still not high enough.

I haven't seen a single projections set that has Richardson to the under, including our official Fantasy Life projections, where the sharp Dwain McFarland has him slated for 633 yards.

Jayden Daniels - Commanders

Over 525.5 Yards Rushing

  • Bet: -112 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 575.1

I know Daniels isn't a veteran, but it's hard not to include him in any discussion of running QBs since he has the upside to lead the position in rushing as a rookie, so think of this blurb as a bonus.

Like Richardson, Daniels is slated to the under in every projections set I've seen, especially our official projections: Dwain has Daniels at 734 yards, trailing only Jackson at QB.

And that makes sense.

Daniels is a rookie: When pressured on dropbacks, he might resort to scrambling instead of navigating the pocket and continuing to look downfield as a polished passer.

And Daniels is an exceptional runner: He was the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2019 recruitment class, and last year — in his Heisman Trophy-winning campaign — he led all QBs with 1,134 yards rushing (including sacks) in 12 games.

On top of that, he led all FBS rushers with 8.4 yards per carry.

Despite having one of the higher QB rushing props in the market, Daniels is probably projected near his realistic floor.