I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the season-long player props market and publishing a series of articles highlighting bets I like.
My most recent articles look at rookie futures and awards markets and season-long rookie production props.
In this article, I'm moving past rookies and now looking at 2024 passing props for veterans (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).
Derek Carr - Saints
Over 3,325.5 Yards Passing
- Bet: -112 (FanDuel)
- Projection: 3,726.2
I usually loathe betting season-long overs, especially on veterans, who are easier than rookies for the sportsbooks to project. Generally, unders tend to be sharp.
Even so, I like the over on Carr.
This line is as high as 3,450.5 (+100) at BetMGM, so we're getting some good line-shopping value at FanDuel, and regardless of that I think this prop is a worthwhile investment.
In our official site projections (managed by the sharp Dwain McFarland), we have Carr projected for 3,994 yards, and even though I'm a little lower on Carr, I still like him to cruise by this line.
I've yet to see a single projection set that doesn't have Carr on the over, and the last time he failed to hit 3,325.5 was literally a decade ago (2014), when he was a rookie.
Last year, despite playing through multiple shoulder injuries, Carr had 3,878 yards, and this year his circumstances might be improved: He probably got an upgrade this offseason in the transition from OC Pete Carmichael to Klint Kubiak, and now he's less likely to lose his starting job during the season with the departure of backup QB Jameis Winston.
Not once in his career has Carr started fewer than 15 games.
I don't think the Saints will have a great season—but it would need to be a truly disappointing campaign for them for Carr not to hit this number.
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins
Under 4,200.5 Yards Passing
- Bet: -115 (DraftKings)
- Projection: 4,162.0
This prop is 4,050.5 (-105) at BetMGM and as low as 4,000.5 (-112) at FanDuel, so I'm happy to grab it at DraftKings at an elevated number.
Last year, Tagovailoa led the league in passing with 4,624 yards, and he has been a consistently productive thrower in his two seasons under offensive HC Mike McDaniel.
- 2023: 272.9 yards per game
- 2024: 272.0 yards per game
While I like Tagovailoa and have a projection for him that isn't too far off from his prop, my process presumes that he will play close to a full season—and I'm skeptical that I can reasonably make that assumption.
Jan 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws a pass to running back Raheem Mostert (31) during the second half of a 2024 AFC wild card game against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Last year was Tagovailoa's first starting all 17 games. In the two previous seasons, he averaged 12.5 starts, and he has a concussion history that probably makes him more vulnerable to missed time than the typical QB.
And while offseason weight fluctuation (guys bulking up, guys trimming down) is usually something I ignore, it's possible that the suddenly svelte Tagovailoa will be less sturdy this year after losing 25 lbs. since January.
If Tagovailoa is unable to reach an agreement with the Dolphins for a new contract, he might play it cautiously with any midseason injuries he suffers and choose to sit out games to avoid potential serious issues a la 2022 Lamar Jackson.
And it doesn't help that two of his top WRs (Tyreek Hill and Odell Beckham) are both 30-plus years old: At some point, Hill will start to slow down, and Beckham is already a shell of his former self.
If you're optimistic about Tagovailoa, that's fine…but don't bet the over on his season-long prop. Instead, bet on him to win MVP—because if the Dolphins had beaten the Ravens last year in Week 17, then he (and not Jackson) would likely be the reigning MVP right now.
I can see the bull case for Tagovailoa, but the bear case has teeth, and season-long props are one of the few bet types that reward pessimism-based investment theses.
I can see Tagovailoa's upside, but his downside outweighs it for me in this market.
Kirk Cousins - Falcons
Under 27.5 TDs Passing
- Bet: -115 (DraftKings)
- Projection: 25.9
In each of his three previous full seasons (2020-22), Cousins crushed this number (35, 33, 29), and last year he had 18 TDs in just eight games before suffering a campaign-ending Achilles injury.
But 2024 ain't 2020-23.
WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts are upside players…but they're not the established weapons that WR Justin Jefferson and TE T.J. Hockenson have been for years.
Cousins could struggle with the transition to the Falcons, who have a first-time OC (Zac Robinson) and defensive HC (Raheem Morris). It's not hard to imagine how they could struggle early on offense.
Cousins is still recovering from last year's injury—and the team just drafted QB Michael Penix at pick No. 8. If Cousins is slow to recover or has a string of poor performances in the season, Penix could cut into his playing time.
And even if the offense is good and Cousins sees his full allotment of starting snaps, he could still hit the under if the Falcons opt to utilize a run-heavy approach at the goal line with RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who might make up the league's best backfield.
This line for Cousins isn't egregious, but I doubt it fully accounts for all the downside avenues available to him this season.
