In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
Why So Unserious?: I hadn’t originally planned on doing this to myself again by covering bad coaching decisions—but I watched the games with an ardent Madden gamer so now you have to suffer too.
Another week of ball means once more coming to grips with reality: professional football coaches regularly deploy mind-bending decisions at times (which shouldn’t be confused with the unfortunate Sheesh moments that Ian chronicles weekly). We’ve all been there … sweating one bet or another when it happens. Fourth down decision making that results in a track paced freshly into the carpet, lined with clumps of hair.
In toto, this Sunday wound up pretty firmly on the rational side of the decision meter, but I got an absolute earful on three awful fourth-down botch jobs in the BUF/BAL game alone.
The first of which belonged to the generally rational John Harbaugh, who luckily for Raven fans didn’t pay the price for an inexcusable blunder. Down multiple scores and driving late in the second half, Josh Allen got tackled short of the marker on third down. Buffalo tried to call time out, except it was waved off and charged to Baltimore—Marlon Humphrey stayed down on the ground after the two-minute warning. Harbaugh must not have liked the pre-snap personnel setup on the following play since he called another timeout … that he’s not allowed to! A delay of game penalty cost the Ravens five yards and an automatic first down (that BUF subsequently squandered).
Sean McDermott wouldn’t be outdone in the unserious department, causing widespread head-scratching across Western New York’s frozen tundra. The Bills missed a short pass on 3rd and 2 to Dalton Kincaid at midfield during the opening drive and subsequently decided to punt. Mind you, McDermott already went for it and succeeded two minutes earlier on 4th down from their own 39. Needless the say the analytic crowd went ballistic—right before getting immediately rewarded with the ultimate “I told you so” in the form of an 87-yard Derrick Henry TD run on the very next play.
Then, later that quarter the Bills found themselves in the same exact down, distance, and field position (BUF 39). Except this time, down double-digits on the scoreboard, McDermott inexplicably punts! I hate dogpiling coaches who will forget more about football than I’ll ever know, but if you ask me, a lot of these coaches could use an offseason Madden refresher course in risk management.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Building Blocks
- Give ‘Em The Heater
NFL Building Blocks 🧠📊—TT > ML / ATS (Part Deux)
The light schedule means it’s a grass-touching kind of day. Without any football on the docket and half the MLB action going down before you read this, what better time for some process review?
Our day-one subscribers (thanks!) are already familiar with the TT > ML / ATS “formula”, or team totals over money lines and going against the spread—the closest we’ll be coming in this newsletter to high school algebra, I promise.
This particular methodological assertion brought not only clarity but sustained profit to my process. The Cliff’s Notes version? Sports betting is hard. Therefore we should proactively aim to reduce variables to tighten up expected win percentages.
Also, I know mentioning mental health is not always the coolest topic of conversation, but it’s just as important to protect emotional capital as financial. Losing happens, sometimes inexplicably, and in bunches—do what you can to fortify those internal foundations. One tip I’ve found over the years is that streamlining work is almost always a net positive.
Getting back on track, team totals set a single bar, rather than a shifting goalpost, and eliminate an entire phase of your handicap. It also removes a metric ton of plausible outcomes from affecting your bottom line. Let me see if I can explain this concisely (for once).
This past weekend I identified four teams (two underdogs) at value; CHI, PIT, CAR, and SEA. They were all in between 2.5 and 4 points against the spread with o20.5 team totals in the roughly (-115) range. So shifting toward the TT narrows your purview but also makes a statement on the competition.
Let’s use Monday night's SEA/DET game as a perfect example: If you’re betting on the Seahawks as a 4.5-point dog with a team total of 20.5, you’re also betting the Lions won’t score 26. The second Detroit eclipses 26 points, you’ll need more than 21 to cash by definition—and then have to continually add to that total any time they score. Yes, it could work in reverse but then you’re in a situation where an alt-under would have better odds anyway.
Remember my four teams needing 21 points?
- CHI — Scored 26, covered (-3)
- PIT — Scored 24, lost outright (-3)
- CAR — Scored 24, lost by 10 at (+4.5)
- SEA — Scored 29, lost by 13 at (+4.5)
Same analysis, same process, same risk, same games. Team totals 4-0, ATS 1-3.
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
📈 Risers and Fallers ahead of Week 6 … Updated College Football Power Rankings.
📊 Get a head start on your Week 5 data dive … projections are live.
⛳️ The PGA TOUR returns to action this week … best bets for the Sanderson Farms Championship
👀 Davante Adams trade rumors are heating up … where will he land?
🏆 Super Bowl Odds are updated after 4 weeks of action … who’s worth a bet?
📺 Claudia, Geoff, and Freedman are back in action with their best bets for NFL Week 5.
Give ‘Em The Heater ⚾️🔥—Joe Must-Groove
It’s only Day 2 of the MLB postseason and our encore for yesterday’s thrill rides is back-to-back-to-back-to-back elimination games. I’ve probably gone on enough already today, so I’ll keep it quick.
Pitching splits matter. Injury splits matter more. And increased fastball velocity coming off an injury resulting in a ridiculous 27.8% K-BB matters most. San Diego’s Game 2 starter, Joe Musgrove, has done just that (below), tacking on over 2 mph to his four-seamer since April.
I’d argue this second-half run is Musgrove at peak powers, perhaps looking better than at any point in his career. Since the return, his arsenal boasts four separate offerings with a +25% whiff rate, four of which grade at 110 or better on Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model
Musgrove’s coming off 6+ strikeouts in seven of eight to face a cornered Braves team ranking in the bottom-third across the board in the disciplinary department—strikeout, swinging strike, and team contact rates (below).
THE BET: Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122) FD
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