I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the season-long player props market and publishing a series of articles highlighting bets I like.
Here are my most recent articles.
In this article, I'm looking at 2024 RB rushing props (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).
Breece Hall
Under 1,050.5 Yards Rushing
- Bet: -110 (DraftKings)
- Projection: 1,006.4
For fantasy, I like Hall a lot this year: I have him ranked as my No. 3 RB, and that's exactly where he's going off the board in 2024 Underdog fantasy drafts (per our customizable Fantasy Life ADP Tool). He has a high overall floor because of his three-down skill set, and he has an elevated ceiling because of his TD potential in a revitalized offense led by QB Aaron Rodgers.
But Hall's best attribute is his pass-catching ability: Last season he led all RBs with 95 targets, 75 receptions, and 591 yards receiving.
He's attractive in fantasy because he has the potential to be 2020 Alvin Kamara: A guy who gets a slew of TDs and a ton of scrimmage yardage (primarily because he's an elite receiver) — not a guy who dominates as a rusher.
By the way, it's worth noting that, as great as Kamara has been throughout his career, he's never had 1,000 yards rushing in an NFL regular season: Not all great RBs tear it up on the ground — so there's room for Hall to have a legitimately great season this year and still hit the under as a runner.
With 4.5 yards per carry, Hall's not a bad rusher, but he averaged just 13.1 attempts in 17 games last year, and that number bumped up to just 14.7 after the first month, when the Jets ramped up his usage as he returned from the knee injury that shortened his rookie campaign.
When the unrepresentatively low first month is factored out (10, 4, 12, 6 carries), as well as the absurdly high Week 18 (37 carries), when the team was actively trying to get Breece to 1,000 yards on the season in a meaningless game, Hall had just 12.8 carries per game in Weeks 5-17.
He could see more than that this season, but I doubt he'll get significantly more: Rodgers' offenses often tend to lean more into the passing game, and the Jets have drafted three RBs (Israel Abanikanda, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis) over the past 18 months. While none of them were taken on Days 1-2, that the team opted to invest in the position that many times suggests that the Jets might want to reduce Hall's workload where they can to preserve him — and early-down rushing work would be the clear place to scale back.
Finally, unders tend to be sharp in season-long markets, as there are so many ways for them to hit: Namely injury, individual and team underperformance, changes in workload and role, and suspension.
If everything goes well for Hall, he might exceed this line by 200 yards. If even just one thing goes poorly for him, he might fall short by 200.
Jonathan Taylor
Over 1,000.5 Yards Rushing
- Bet: -110 (DraftKings)
- Projection: 1207.7
Taylor disappointed last year with just 741 yards rushing as he battled backup RB Zack Moss for playing time and missed seven games due to a contract holdout and injuries to his back and thumb.
But he has easily cleared the 1,000-yard mark in both of his seasons with 15-plus games (1,169 in 2020; league-high 1,811 in 2021), and he's entering the 2024 campaign healthy and ranked as a top-five fantasy RB.
Even if he merely repeated last year's career-worst mark of 74.1 yards rushing per game, he'd still be able to clear 1,000 yards with just 14 games played — so as long as you don't expect Taylor to miss more than a few contests his prop looks readily attainable.
And in Taylor's final eight games of 2023 — after he ramped up in Weeks 5-6 following his season-opening stint on the PUP in Weeks 1-4 — Taylor averaged 88 yards on 19.4 carries per game and saw fewer than 15 carries just once.
Especially now with Moss gone (he left via free agency this offseason), Taylor should again dominate carries for the Colts unless an injury strikes, and injuries are random enough that I don't feel comfortable projecting an elite 25-year-old runner to miss more than three games.
Zamir White
Over 775.5 Yards Rushing
- Bet: -112 (FanDuel)
- Projection: 930.7
The Raiders are only +900 to win the AFC West and have a win total of just 6.5. They're not likely to lead in many games this year, so what they did at the end of last season — when they went 3-1 with a single loss of just three points — might not be representative of what they're likely to do on offense now, especially since they have added QB Gardner Minshew.
But the way White was used in the final month is instructive. After starter Josh Jacobs (quad) suffered a season-ending injury, White dominated the backfield for the Raiders as the fill-in lead back, putting up 397 yards rushing on 84 carries with a 70% snap rate and 76% rush share (per our industry-leading and all-powerful Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
The team added backup RB Alexander Mattison, who should theoretically compete with White for snaps and opportunities, but he has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry over the past three seasons and was disappointing last year (700 yards rushing) in his aborted stint as a lead back. Plus, the team invested just $2M in him on a one-year deal. I doubt he'll steal a significant share of the backfield work from White.
I don't have much hope for the 2024 Raiders, but even if they find themselves in negative game script for much of the season, I still imagine that defensive HC Antonio Pierce will want the offense to have a run-focused, ball-control approach.
As long as the Raiders aren't atrocious, I expect White to earn enough carries to hit the over.
