In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

Savor The Flavor: With fewer games left in the season than fingers on my hands, it’s never a bad time to stop and smell the pig-skinned roses.

So whether it’s watching from the comfort of your couch or perched on a beverage-soaked barstool, carve out some time for yourself this weekend—it’ll be gone before you know it.

Loser’s Wish List: After four months of nonstop attrition, a half-dozen teams’ dreams of lifting the Lombardi Trophy shatter in just a few hours. Most, if not all of these lovable losers completely faceplanted on offense in the second season. In fact, the six unfortunate squads currently planning vacations averaged just 12 points/game on a -0.17 EPA/play and a pathetic 42% success rate. 

So before we put a final shiny bow on their seasons, I combed through the current NFL free agent list for each team’s most impactful potential target.

  • Chargers: TE, Juwan Johnson
  • Steelers: WR, Chris Godwin
  • Broncos: WR, Tee Higgins
  • Vikings: OL, Trey Smith
  • Packers: WR, Amari Cooper
  • Buccaneers: CB, D.J. Reed

Remember, we’ve got you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME MODEL

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • NFL Playoffs: NFC Divisional Round Blitz
  • The New York Prop Exchange: Checkdown City

The Show Goes On …

Divisional Round Guilloteenie Contests are LIVE.

LEARN MORE

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Let’s dive into a 2025 NFL Mock Draft with Kendall and Thor

🔮 It’s the NFL Divisional Round. Let’s ride with these Best Bets.

🏈 Notre Dame-Ohio State for the College Football National Championship. You bet it’ll be huge.

🪓 Guilloteenie Divisional Round Rankings. You might be surprised who’s on top.

⬆️ Ian is on to 2025. Way-too-Early QB Rankings. A shakeup in the Top 5.

NFL Playoffs🏈💥—NFC Divisional Round Blitz

No. 6 Commanders (12-5) at No. 1 Lions (15-2)

Sat. Jan. 18, 8:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Lions -9.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Total: O/U 55.5

In last weekend’s Wild Card Round, Jayden Daniels joined pretty elite company as one of only 21 rookie quarterbacks ever to win an NFL playoff game. And make no mistake about it, the second overall pick in last year’s draft played a major role in the victory. Daniels produced his tail off in mistake-free fashion to the tune of a 268-2-0 and 13-36-0 stat line. That said, my fear for Washington’s chances of a massive upset rests with the Commanders’ run game … or lack thereof. Hard to hide just how bad that unit played versus Tampa: -0.19 EPA/rush and 2.5 yards/carry on a sub-30% success rate. Oof. OC Kliff Kingsbury is going to have to scheme up something more effective than that if he wants to hang with Detroit.

The Lions earned their week off by mopping the floor with the Vikings in the season finale—and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Despite early reports his Week 15 knee injury could require surgery, Detroit’s offensive engine and resident touchdown sponge David Montgomery will play after logging back-to-back full practices. Back to full strength on offense, I’m struggling to see how Washington, which finished bottom-3 this season in both rushing yards per game (137.5) and per rush (4.8) throttles Dan Campbell’s attack plan. You know the Lions are licking their chops at the sight of this matchup.

Meanwhile, however good you thought the Lions’ offense performed this season, it’s likely a touch better than that. DET finished first in points/game, point differential, success rate, first downs/drive, and scoring drive success. The result? Detroit’s implied team total currently sits at an astounding 33 points! What?!? In a Divisional Round matchup? Talk about catching steam …

And that’s where the books lose me. Washington’s pass defense played well all season as a complement to an above-average pressure scheme, allowing the fewest completions and third-fewest passing yards/game in the NFL. No, I’m not calling for the upset of the century but an O/U of 55.5 is a metric ton of points for a game I’m expecting lots of carries in. Both offenses have more than proven their ability to sustain drives, ranking first and second in first downs/drive—which eats up tons of clock. I think the public put the scoring cart before the horse here. LEAN: WAS/DET u55.5

No. 4 Rams (10-7) at No. 2 Eagles (14-3)

Sun. Jan. 19, 3:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Eagles -6 (-110; DraftKings)

Total: O/U 43.5

Credit where it’s due for Sean McVay’s Rams—I distinctly remember the football world writing them off for mortgaging their future in exchange for a Super Bowl. Apparently, rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated. Sixteen-year NFL veteran Matthew Stafford is back in the Divisional Round despite all odds. But it begs the question: Did the Rams win, or did the Vikings lose that Monday Wild Card tilt? Think of it this way—had I told you the Rams ran just 55 plays at a 41% success rate and a neutral 0.00 EPA/play, you’d likely be asking how many scores they lost by. Nope, they dominated Sam Darnold, who’s likely still seeing ghosts in his sleep.

Fact remains there’s no way to expect a similar type of cartoonish production from the Rams’ defense again, allowing just 3.8 yards/play and 9 sacks by generating pressure on an insane 54% of dropbacks. Remember, LAR finished as a bottom-third defense by all intents and purposes and they’ll certainly have their work cut out for them against Philadelphia. 

Where do we even begin with the Eagles, who by my estimations possess the deepest and most balanced roster in the tournament? I mean, Philly is so good it can afford to have their all-world WR catch just a single ball and spend the rest of his evening reading self-help books on the sidelines. Honestly, we have no clue what the Eagles' aerial ceiling even looks like. They never seem to get pushed to that precipice.

With so many ways to beat you on offense, pressure comes off the PHI defense to assume any negative risk-reward ratios. Vic Fangio can afford to throttle his blitz rates knowing his interior line can create pressure regardless. That same freedom permits Philly to key up on specific elements of the opposition, which should put Los Angeles’ lack of explosivity outside Puka Nacua on full display. It’s been a great run for LAR, but it ends against an Eagle team with too many playmakers on both sides of the ball to overcome. LEAN PHI -6

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BETS

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Checkdown City

THE BET: Brian Robinson Jr. O1.5 Receptions (-110) DK

We must be getting ready to close out the season if I’m recommending Brian Robinson's reception props. Like so many other aspects of life in general, it’s all about the price in this one. Granted, B-Rob Is not necessarily touted for his ability in the passing game, but that hasn’t stopped the Commanders from continuing to feature him out of the backfield. 

I won’t overcomplicate this one. Robinson’s ability to pass protect keeps him on the field for the lion’s share of snaps—where he’s shown increasing continuity, working impromptu off Jayden Daniels and getting himself in a position to extend plays through the air. The third-year RB out of Alabama has gone over this mark in four of his last five games (image below), including last week’s season-high 4 grabs. 

Washington’s projecting 23 points as a near double-digit underdog—so we should have plenty of opportunities to clear this bar, even if it’s in some fourth-quarter garbage time.

Nothing quite like keeping your expectations low, am I right? 

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYER PROPS

Hope you enjoyed today’s MB BettingLife newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback.  I love hearing back from you!