SEC Showdown: Georgia-Tennessee, Go Big Or Go Home
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
We had a big shakeup at the top of the College Football standings in Week 11. Two top-5 teams went down, with Miami losing to an unranked Georgia Tech squad and Georgia falling to Ole Miss.
That’s caused a pretty significant shakeup in the standings. Miami dipped all the way from No. 4 to No. 9 in the standings, while Georgia fell from No. 3 to No. 12.
That said, both teams are still in control of their own destiny. If the Hurricanes win out, they are guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship. They have a tiebreaker advantage over Clemson due to both teams’ results against Louisville, so they would get the nod if both teams have one loss. SMU is currently leading the ACC with an undefeated conference record, but it is not getting the same respect in the polls. Ultimately, it seems like this is destined to be a one-bid conference, which is great news for the at-large teams in the SEC and Big Ten.
Georgia is also squarely on the bubble despite entering the year as one of the National Championship favorites. The Bulldogs’ season is officially on the line this week vs. Tennessee. If they lose that game, their odds of making the playoff dip significantly. But if they win, they still have an outside chance of making the SEC Championship game and earning a bye.
This is what makes the SEC the greatest conference in College Football. The parity is absolutely insane and could set up a ridiculous tiebreaker with as many as eight two-loss teams.
The first step is Georgia taking care of business this week. Let’s dive into Tennessee-Georgia and two other must-see games for CFB Week 12.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The best College Football games for your Saturday viewing pleasure
- Thor Nystrom’s Best Bets for CFB Week 12
- Watercooler: Best Bets in CFB, NFL, and more
The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 12
by Matt LaMarca
Utah at Colorado (-11.0)—Noon ET on Fox
No team has garnered more ink recently than Colorado. That’s been true basically ever since Deion Sanders arrived on campus, but it’s finally deserved. The team is 5-1 in its first year of Big 12 play, so the Buffaloes control their own destiny for a spot in the conference championship. If they can get there, they’ll have a chance to qualify for the playoffs.
The team has arguably the two best players in all of College Football. Travis Hunter is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, while Shedeur Sanders is expected to be the first quarterback selected in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Buffalos still have to navigate some hurdles, starting this week with a pissed-off Utah squad. The Utes felt like they were robbed last week vs. BYU, and now have plenty of experience playing in big games. They’re pretty sizable dogs in this spot, but the Utes would love nothing more than to knock this squad down a peg.
Kansas at BYU (-2.5)—10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
In one of the most surprising lines of the week, the undefeated BYU Cougars are favored by less than a field goal at home against Kansas. What gives?
For starters, Kansas is playing some of its best football of the season at the moment. The Jayhawks are coming off a win over Iowa State last week, and they knocked off Houston by 4 touchdowns two weeks prior. Their lone loss in that stretch came on the road vs. Kansas State, which won by just two points.
Ultimately, BYU doesn’t need this game to get into the playoffs. That said, the Cougars’ path becomes a whole lot easier if they do. If they’re undefeated heading into the Big 12 Championship, they could potentially still earn an at-large bid with a loss. If they already have a blemish on their record, that scenario becomes non-existent.
Tennessee at Georgia (-9.5)—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
With all due respect to the Big 12, this is the game that everyone will have their eyes on this week. Georgia will host Tennessee in what is essentially an elimination contest. Georgia fell out of the projected playoff bracket after losing to Ole Miss last week, and it’s hard to imagine a three-loss team making the playoff. If anyone can, it’s probably the Bulldogs—they’ve played the hardest schedule in all of College Football—but winning makes their path significantly clearer.
Tennessee needs a win just as badly. Even though they have only one loss on their resume, a second would put them clearly on the bubble. Fair or not, the Volunteers would almost certainly dip below Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss, which would leave them as one of the first teams out. They could still potentially get in if some of the teams in front of them falter down the stretch, but it would be far from a guarantee.
Georgia is listed as nearly a 10-point favorite in this spot, partially due to the injury to Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava. He’s reportedly in the concussion protocol, so there’s a chance that he won’t be cleared in time to suit up.
Meanwhile, Carson Beck has had some issues of his own, as he’s thrown a conference-worst 12 interceptions.
Ultimately, both of these teams are good enough to make the playoffs. Thor Nystrom has them both as top-seven squads in his power ratings, so the talent isn’t a question. But there can only be so many schools selected, and whoever loses this contest is on the bubble. That’s life in the SEC.
What About The Rest of the Slate?
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
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Best Bets for College Football Week 12
by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for College Football Week 12, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our College Football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full College Football Game Model based on my projections.
Georgia vs. Tennessee Pick
Adjusted Thor Line: Georgia -4.7
Speaking of Arkansas’ upset of Tennessee—that 5-point setback is the only loss the Vols have taken all season. It’s exceedingly difficult to blow out Tennessee due to the Vols’ vaunted No. 3 SP+ defense.
That defense is probably the nation’s best against the run (No. 4 success rate, No. 1 EPA/run), and it has also greatly improved against the pass (No. 18 success rate, No. 5 EPA/dropback).
Tennessee is likely to shut out the lights on Georgia’s ideas of keeping the ball on the ground. That’ll incentivize the Bulldogs to throw even more. And that’s where things could get hairy for UGA—QB Carson Beck has thrown 12 interceptions in the past six games.
Tennessee’s offense has skewed more toward the run this season than in any previous campaign with HC Josh Heupel. This has allowed the Vols to stay ahead of the sticks all season. Star Vols RB Dylan Sampson was not listed on Wednesday’s injury report.
Vols QB Nico Iamaleava's status for this game looked promising early in the week, with Iamaleava participating in padded practices and Heupel expressing optimism. But a Tuesday report that Iamaleava was still in concussion protocol clouded that. For his part, Georgia HC Kirby Smart said on Wednesday that he assumes Iamaleava will play.
If Iamaleava cannot, Tennessee will turn to fifth-year senior QB Gaston Moore. Moore has been with Heupel for the past five years—ever since 2020 when he signed with Heupel as a true freshman at UCF. Moore followed Heupel to Knoxville, where he’s been a backup for four years.
Moore doesn’t have Iamaleava’s physical tools, but he knows how to run the offense and may not prove to be a big downgrade qualitatively on what we’ve seen from Iamaleava this season. Moore went 5-of-8 passes for 38 yards last week off the bench against Mississippi State.
As long as Tennessee is running the ball well, the Vols can give Georgia a game regardless of who is behind center. The Bulldogs run defense is a decent No. 25 in EPA/run, but has shown cracks, including a No. 81 standing in yards after contact per attempt. Additionally, UGA has had issues with back-end miscommunication leading to huge aerial gains. Georgia ranks a lowly No. 91 in passing marginal explosiveness against. This is a specialty of Iamaleava’s.
We expect this one to be close, not decided until late.
Thor’s best bet for Georgia vs. Tennessee:
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