Not. dead. yet. The Oilers staved off elimination with a resounding 8-1 victory in Edmonton in Game 4 that saw them chase nemesis Sergei Bobrovsky and get a four-point night from captain Connor McDavid.

Heading into Game 5, you are now likely in one of two camps: the victory doesn’t mean much in the bigger picture (Florida is still up 3-1), or this is now an entirely new series.

Teams that get blown out in the game before (especially good teams) tend to bounce back with more ferocity in their next outing and considering the circumstances (Stanley Cup in the building) it’s likely we’ll see a much more sustained effort from Florida tonight. 

But will it be enough to clinch the series? Or should we look to play other angles for betting?

Let’s dive in below and see if we can answer some of those questions below in my picks for Panthers vs. Oilers Game 5.

Picks for Panthers vs. Oilers Game 5

Oilers at Panthers Under 5.5 Goals (-115; DraftKings)

The under in these playoffs has been a very profitable target once the Oilers get away from Edmonton.

The Oilers moved to 8-3 to the under on the road after both of their first two games against Florida saw less than 6.0 goals scored. Conversely, they’ve been over machines when at home with both Game 3 and 4 of this series hitting seven goals or more, moving the Oilers record at home to 8-2-1 (to the over). 

It’s also worth noting that one of the Oilers' only home unders came in an elimination game atmosphere similar to what we’ll see today (a 2-1 Game 6 win against Dallas). The Panthers' trends are also worth noting. Florida got bombarded in a 5-4 Game 3 loss to the Rangers but rebounded quickly in that series with strong defensive efforts that saw them take down three games in a row, all of which hit the under. Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is no stranger to these kinds of swings and certainly his performance against New York in the final three games – after he allowed five goals on 23 shots in Game 3 – is a cause to be bullish on a lower-scoring game transpiring as well. 

Edmonton has carried the play 5v5 for the majority of this series but Florida did well to quell them in Game 2 at home, a contest that likely remains their best performance of the series. I expect a similar kind of effort from Florida today and if that team shows up we’ll see fewer chances for Edmonton and likely a lower-scoring affair – where each team will be happy to play for that one break that gives the edge and the win. 

Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 SOG (-160; DraftKings)

  • Anytime Goal Scorer (+380; FanDuel)

I wrote up this prop for Game 4 and Tarasenko came through for us in a big way, hitting both his goal prop and the over on his SOG prop in the first period. The lines on both of these props have gotten shorter but in all honesty, they are still not short enough for me not to play. Tarasenko has now managed two or more shots on net in every game in this series and in eight straight games dating back to Round 3. 

I alluded to this on Saturday, but the Panthers are playing Tarasenko perfectly, and haven’t been wearing out the veteran who is averaging around 11-12 minutes per game in a third-line role. He’s not only fresh when he’s on the ice but also getting prime matchups against the Oilers' bottom six as a result, matchups that have allowed him to get more shots through than most Florida forwards in this series.  

At -160 our room for error is smaller (61.25% implied probability) than it was previously but with how effective he’s been I would feel fine playing this up to -180. 

In terms of his goal prop, which is down to +380 from +420, I would also have no issue targeting it one more time for a smaller play. He scored a big goal for them in Game 6 to close out the Rangers and with how effective he’s been in this series he’s a player I would also keep him in mind for live goal-scorer bets, should the game go to OT or be tied late. 

Aleksander Barkov Under 2.5 SOG (-135; DraftKings)

At this point in the series, we know these two teams' tendencies and how their top players will likely perform. Barkov has been a defensive force since the start of the playoffs for Florida, and, especially in this series, he has been more concerned with shutting down Connor McDavid than getting shots through on goaltender Stuart Skinner. 

Even in Game 4 with Florida down for most of the game Barkov only managed five shot attempts with just two hitting the net. In the first two games of the series (played in Florida) he only managed six shot attempts and has now gone under this 2.5 SOG total in every single game against Edmonton.

Despite the consistency, the odds on Barkov’s under remain virtually unchanged over Game 4, when his under on this prop also went off at -135 to -140. Maybe the long-term probabilities suggest he’ll start hitting the net a lot more soon but in this game environment, with Florida likely to go into a heavy defensive shell if they get any lead in this game, it’s not a trend I want to go against. With the price still at the same level it was at in Game 4, I'm more than happy to keep this bet on the greatest hits list and run it back one more time in Game 5. 

Same-Game Parlay for Panthers vs. Oilers Game 5

  • Under 6.5 goals
  • Vladimir Tarasenko Anytime Goal Scorer
  • Vladimir Tarasenko over 1.5 shots on goal
  • Panthers moneyline

Combining the Tarasenko goal prop with an under on the total gives us some nice negative correlation that boosts our odds a bit and gives us some nice upside to play around with. While I do like playing the normal 5.5 total to the under going to 6.5 does give us a nice cushion in case of an empty net goal, a scenario that could drive this from a 3-1 game to a 4-2 or 5-1 result in a hurry.

That aside, the rest of this parlay is pretty straightforward. If we are playing the Tarasenko goal prop certainly combining it with the over on his SOG prop and the Panthers to close out the series makes plenty of sense. You could get funky and add in an assist prop for one of Tarasenko’s linemates (Lundell or Luostarinen), or even play for OT (which would boost this into the +3000 range), but I like just using the straight moneyline in this spot over the regulation line, which covers us in case the game goes to OT.