Stefon Diggs Is A Good Bet To Improve The Patriots' Passing Game
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Stefon Diggs just packed his bags for Foxborough and it’s all anyone on social media wants to talk about—so if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. I blew the dust off my NFL charts for some thoughts and expectations of New England’s most recent signings' impact.
And oh yeah, some sport called baseball starts tomorrow. WOOHOO!
Apparently it’s a big deal to some people—and you know the big man has you covered. I dropped a pair of my favorite Opening Day bets with all the data you can stomach in the final section with this year’s big algo reveal.
Signed, Sealed, Delivered
Some notes!
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🏈NFL Free Agency—Can You Diggs It?🏈
As anyone sharp enough to subscribe to this newsletter already knows, NFL headlines now dominate the backpage news cycle year-round—yes, even with MLB Opening Day just 24 hours away by the time this hits your inbox. Per legendary insider Adam Schefter, “New Patriots WR Stefon Diggs, who’s coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 8 vs. the Colts, is on track to return for Week 1 of the upcoming season. It was another reason the Patriots felt comfortable giving Diggs the three-year, $69 million deal that GM Eliot Wolf negotiated.” Relevant betting lines may not be up yet, but the move Is certainly noteworthy—and the best way to not fall behind on research is to record our reactions in real time.
At 31 years old, Diggs’ game-breaking deep-shot days may be behind him, but that doesn’t mean his impact is no longer felt. According to NextGenStats, he was fifth among all WRs in catches over expectation before the knee injury shelved him for the remainder of the 2024 season. And it’s that particular schematic boost underneath worthy of focus.
It’s no secret New England’s wide receiver room lacked any type of track record for playmaking. How else can you put it when Hunter Henry leads your team in targets (97), receptions (66), and yards (674)?
It’s said sometimes pictures are worth a thousand words. Let’s hope my bosses agree this is one of those times since it’s a lot easier to make my bull case argument for the Patriots’ offense visually. Fine, Drake Maye‘s rookie season may not rate with the all-time greats (225 Completions/2,276 Yards/15 TD/10 INT), but his in-season improvement felt obvious, evidenced clearly in the monthly EPA chart above.
Maye also posted the No. 24 deep-ball rate (7.9%) among starting QBs, which somewhat jumps off the page in the heat map above. However, deep attempts are not directly correlated to quarterback success (Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Jalen Hurts were all 20th or worse). The thing is, you need to be efficient underneath, something which the Patriots objectively were not (image below). The better offenses in the league produce more frequently in higher-probability situations to keep the chains moving and drives alive. This is exactly where Diggs will step in and make an immediate difference.
I’ll be waiting with baited breath for Maye’s passing props as well as New England’s win total, just in case the market is expecting another basement outcome.
DIGGS’ ODDS TO WIN NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
⚾💰MLB Opening Day—PLAY BALL!💰⚾
It’s the most wonderful time of the year: Opening Day! Soon, we’ll be hearing the two sweetest words in the English language, setting off six months of nonstop betting action … Play Ball!
Posting a pair of my favorite early leans based off of my algorithm results before any lineups become official—but please make sure to check out the whole kit and caboodle in the section below!
MIL at NYY, 3:05 p.m. EST—MIL F5TT O1.5 (-125)
The Brewers’ offense enters the season a bit undersung, with a healthy Christian Yelich and expected steps forward from youngsters Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz. They’ll face southpaw Carlos Rodón, coming off a rough season and an even rougher spring training (10 IP; 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP) in which he simply couldn’t find the plate (13% BB). It’ll be cool but not cold in the Bronx tomorrow afternoon, which is always a good place to hit anyway. One more outing from Rodón resembling the pitcher we’ve seen in pinstripes lately makes for a nice edge at cost (55.6% implied probability).
BAL at TOR, 3:05 p.m. EST—BAL F5ML (-110)
Anytime I can get money down on the Orioles at near even money with a pitching edge, you can count me in. Zach Eflin doesn’t get the credit he deserves—while he doesn’t mow hitters down with 100 MPH heat, he’s a darn strike-throwing machine. How else would you describe a 3.7% walk rate over his last 524 IP going back to 2021? On the flipside, José Berríos walked a tightrope all season in 2024, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP combo despite some awful underpinning metrics—4.74 xERA, 12.6% K-BB, 89% Zone-Contact and 1.45 HR/9… with a four-seamer failing to hit 90 MPH on the gun. Give me the black birds in orange vests all day.
🧮⚾Betting Reserach Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮
For anyone more deeply interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, I took the liberty of sharing my world-famous starting pitching sheets, and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results—hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions or comments!
Opening Day SP Sheet
Opening Day Algo Results
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
OPENING DAY PROPS FOR TARIK SKUBAL VS. THE DODGERS
