The NFC has a handful of elite teams, and two are playing in this game. Yes, I called the Rams elite. They may have “only” gone 10-7 last season, but this is a team that reloaded fast after one down year and has a Super Bowl-winning HC and QB running the ship.
The Lions are now as short as +1200 to win the Super Bowl themselves and may have a decided edge for the division title after Jordan Love went down on Friday with a knee injury. The Rams will also have revenge on their mind after losing 24-23 in a close game played in Detroit in last year’s Wild-Card Round.
We have a few interesting injury scenarios to watch on the Rams that have caused this spread to move from 3.5 to 4.5 and also have a massive total and a handful of legit offensive superstars to target in the prop department.
Let’s not waste any more time and get to the analysis and bets for the first SNF game of the season.
Lions -4.5 vs. Rams +4.5 (-110; DraftKings); O/U 52.0
Los Angeles brings in a wealth of talent on the offensive side of the ball in the form of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams. They also added some depth pieces in the draft this year in Jordan Whittington and Blake Corum who could potentially be larger contributors themselves later on in the season.
Offensively, the Rams look set to be another top-10 team in terms of efficiency (They were 9th in EPA per play last year). Defensively, the jury is still out. You can’t replace Aaron Donald, but the Rams added edge Jared Verse and DT Braden Fiske who will both be Week 1 starters. In theory, their pressure rate could be far better this year with the additions. Unfortunately, with the current state of their secondary, if they don’t improve from a pressure perspective, the Rams' defense could be a sore spot for them once again in 2024.
Los Angeles lost starting CB Derion Kendrick to an ACL in camp, and now will be without starter Darious Williams for at least four games. CB Tre’Davious White is set to play but is coming off an Achilles injury. The secondary was a big concern for the Rams for most of 2023 and while they took steps to improve it, luck has moved against them again.
Will the Lions offense eat?
The Lions certainly have the pieces to take advantage of this depleted group as well. Amon Ra St. Brown is likely licking his chops at getting White in his first game back and while Detroit’s depth at WR isn’t spectacular, there should be room for speedsters Kalif Raymond and Jameson Williams to get separation downfield.
The Lions also ran the ball effectively with David Montgomery (15-93-1) in last year’s playoff game and if they can get him going early on again, it will likely open up some opportunities for players like Raymond and Williams–who went for two TDs in that game himself (1 rec, 1 rush)--downfield.
Spread and Total.
The Rams secondary has gone from being moderate to largely improved, to being a huge question mark again. At the same time, the number has now moved in the Lion's direction (now +4.5) and is giving us points to take through key numbers of 3.0 and 4.0. There has been a ton of sharp money on the Lions over the last 24 hours, but at +4.5, I don't necessarily see this line getting any bigger either. I’m going to wait to see if any 5.0’s pop up but lean towards the Rams at this number. Sean McVay teams tend to outperform with rest and he’s 6-1 ATS in Week 1 for his career.
The first two games of the season were both primetime games and both went over (although Chiefs/Ravens barely scraped over the 46.5 O/U). I tend to think scoring may be up this year due to the new kickoff rules, so if I am betting on either side of this, admittedly huge 52.0 total, I am going over.
The below-average secondaries of these two teams may be down bad all game, leading to numerous explosive plays. I also expect the Rams to be more aggressive given that they, A. Now have a depleted secondary and know they’ll need to press their advantage more on defense. B. Were too conservative in last year’s playoff game which cost them the win.
With that in mind, this also sets up as a great game to take some correlated overs in Same Game Parlays. Alternate totals/anytime TDs on players like Stafford, Nakau, Williams, and/or Jahmyr Gibbs all have appeal.
Lions vs Rams Best Bets
Kalif Raymond longest reception over 12.5 yards (-109; Caesars)
The Rams allowed Jared Goff to pass for 9.4 yards per attempt in the playoff game last year. Raymond is a legit speedster and often forgotten about part of this offense who works in a lot in three-WR sets and has the speed to get open against backup corners downfield.
OC Ben Johnson loves scheming up multiple shots per game with Raymond, who went over this number in nine of 17 games played last year (in three of his misses he landed receptions between 11-12 yards so that rate could have been much higher as well).
If you’re into alternate line betting, the +750 available on DraftKings for Raymond to go for 50+ receiving yards looks enticing as well. Theoretically, he’s the type of player who could get this done in one play and will be up against weak corners all game. He went for 50+ yards in three of 17 games last season (and five of 16 games in 2022). The +750 odds suggest an 11.76% implied probability which makes these odds just a little too big given the matchup, and his 17.6% hit rate (of clearing 50+ yards) from 2023.
Jameson Williams first receiver to 20+ yards (+850; DraftKings)
I thought this was a fun market and potentially great way to back Williams who, like Raymond, is gonna have chances for big plays against this weaker secondary.
It’s very possible the Lions decide to come out of the gates and give Williams a couple of shots right away to test this Rams secondary. Seeing him go for a 20+ reception on the first drive (if the Lions win the toss) seems very possible and at +850, he’s more than 3x bigger in this market than some of the higher-profile receivers.
