Sunday Night Football in Week 2 features a matchup between two 1-0 teams, although the differences in how these two teams went about getting their W’s in Week 1 could not have been more different.

The Bears beat the Titans in the most unlikely of fashions. They didn’t score an offensive TD and managed just 93 yards of passing. Caleb Williams ranked 21st in EPA per play out of 24 QBs who played on more than 32 snaps in Week 1 and the Bears offensively ranked 27th in EPA per dropback.

Chicago received a special teams TD and also managed to score on defense, returning a Will Levis throw for six points.

Houston took a couple of good blows from the Colts in their 29-27 win in Week 1, but were ultimately too much for Indianapolis to handle. C.J. Stroud was 5th in EPA per play and completed 75% of his passes, putting together a masterful and efficient performance that got Houston by the Colts, who suffered from a few mistakes by Anthony Richardson. 

The Texans' defense did manage an INT last week, but only ranked 21st in EPA per run last week. If the Bears offensive is to finally have some success in this game expect it to be on the ground with D'Andre Swift and/or Caleb Williams running the ball.

Betting Breakdown for Texans vs. Bears: SNF

  • Texans -6.5 (-110; DraftKings)
  • O/U 45.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Injury notes:

Texans 

Bears

There are a couple of key injuries to watch in this game. The Texans starting center in Juice Scruggs is questionable and his absence could make it harder for Houston to replicate some of the run game success they had in Week 1.

Scruggs and the Texans O-Line were opening holes for Joe Mixon against the Colts all game long, but face a tougher defensive front in the Bears this week. If Scruggs is out, expect the Texans to have to rely more on Stroud’s arm in this game, which could also open him up to more sacks.

On the flip side, two of the Bears' starting WRs are banged up and look highly questionable to play this week. Allen is still hobbled from a heel injury that has been lingering since training camp (or even much before that), while Odunze hurt his knee last week, but doesn’t appear at risk of reinjury right now.

Allen didn’t practice all week and just given his history and age, he seems somewhat unlikely to play. Odunze has been cleared to play but is in a “pain tolerance” situation. That means it’s more likely he’ll suit up, but how effective he’ll be is up for debate.

I would expect DJ Moore to be a very popular target this week for Caleb Williams regardless, but he’ll have to deal with an elite corner in Derek Stingley, who will be able to key on Moore with the other two out or hobbled. Chicago should be very focused on getting the ground game in this spot, and if they’re not successful or fall behind early, it’s not out of the question that we see Williams struggle again and potentially throw his first INT of his career.

Texans vs. Bears: Spread and Total

The spread in this game has moved a little this week between 6.5 to 5.5, but every time it’s moved down to 6.0 (-110) or lower money has come in and pushed this right back to 6.5 (-110). I don’t necessarily worry too much about betting splits and where the money is flowing but this movement does tell us that the market generally agrees that the Texans should not be favored by less than 6.0 in this spot. The Bears were insanely lucky in Week 1, and while they may have more luck getting their ground game going in Week 2, they still need to shut down C.J. Stroud if they want to win this game.

That’s easier said than done. The Colts sacked Stroud 4.0 times in Game 1 and still couldn’t slow him down. It’s also worth noting that the Bears secondary got off easy in Week 1 as Will Levis missed Calvin Ridley on a couple of wide-open plays downfield, but those aren’t balls Stroud will miss.

Look for Stroud to connect on a big play or two with Tank Dell (105 air yards in Week 1) who is not likely to be followed by Jaylen Johnson in the slot. The Bears will also have to choose whether they want Johnson covering Nico Collins downfield or the more reliable possession receiver in Stefon Diggs. 

On the flip side, I expect the Texans to be aggressive in shutting off the run this week. Their defense did get exposed a little by Anthony Richardson, but that’s something we’ll be hearing a lot of in 2024 if Richardson stays healthy. Williams is a step below in terms of athleticism and experience and the Texans ranked sixth last year in EPA per rush. 

Look for them to put the ball in Caleb Williams’ hands as much as possible in this game and wait for the mistakes to pile up. 

I bet the Texans at 6.0 (-120) earlier in the Week, but would still play them at -6.5, as this line may even creep into 7.0 in spots if both Bears WRs miss this game.

Ultimately, I just see this as a mismatch between two teams with vastly different QB situations. Chicago has historically performed poorly in these kinds of spots under Matt Eberfuls, going 6-11 ATS as an away underdog since 2022, and is also 3-7 ATS under Eberflus after a loss. 

I don’t have an official play on the total but if both Chicago WRs miss this game I’d likely lean towards the under. 

Expert Picks for Texans vs. Bears

Tank Dell Over 52.5 receiving yards (-115; BetMGM)

I bet this prop right when it came out at 44.5 yards and logged it in our bet tracker, where you can get all of our FREE NFL Bets.

It was bet up to 50.5 immediately and now sits at 52.5. I can’t say I like it as much as I did at 44.5 or even 50.5, but our FantasyLife+ projections this week have Dell projected for 55.0 receiving yards, and as mentioned previously, he should be the WR in this game the Texans look to use due to the Bears tougher outside corners.

Caleb Williams to throw an INT (-135; FanDuel)

We have Williams projected for 0.65 INTs in this game, but honestly I feel like that may even be a little low. The truth is, he rarely was forced into dropback situations in Week 1 as his special teams and defense bailed him out when the Bears were behind. When he did try and make plays he failed miserably, taking a 19-yard sack and completing just 48% of his passes.

Eventually, that kind of play will lead to turnovers and with this being his first game on the road in a primetime situation, an INT feels like something very likely to occur this week. You need to shop around if you are betting Willams’ INTs as the price on this prop is all over the place, but it was as high as -135 on FanDuel, a number I locked into our Bet Tracker on Saturday.

As a bit of speculative/fun play, I am also going to play him to throw multiple INTs (2+/3+) on bet365, where he’s set at +310/+1000. With Allen and Odunze both bagged up, this feels like a spot where he could start forcing it to DJ Moore or his backups and spiral into a really poor night.