You can’t know where you’re going if you don’t know where you started. Is that a true sentiment? I’m not sure, but it’s good enough for me to start an article.

One of my favorite things about betting on sports is that it is a marketplace. It’s not a perfect facsimile of the stock market, but it’s close enough. The lines and odds are constantly shifting as a reflection of where bettors are placing their money.

That’s particularly true in the Super Bowl market. A few big bets can result in big liability for the sportsbooks, so they have to be aware of where each team is priced at all times.

We’ve already seen 30 teams fall by the wayside in the Super Bowl market, leaving just the Eagles and Chiefs. On Sunday, we’ll be left with just one team standing. Those who placed bets on the winning squad at some point during the year will get to head to the window and cash their ticket, while those who bet the losers will be left with nothing but a memory.

So—how did we get here? Let’s take a look back at the Chiefs and Eagles journies from a betting standpoint throughout the NFL season.

Kansas City Chiefs

When it comes to the Chiefs, they’re beginning to feel a bit like Thanos: inevitable. They’ve made the AFC Championship game in all seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback, and this will be their fifth trip to the Super Bowl. They’ve already taken home three Lombardi trophies, including each of the past two.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Chiefs have been among the favorites to win the Super Bowl all season. In February of last year—right after winning the Super Bowl for the second straight season—the Chiefs were available at somewhere between +600 and +700. I know I personally have a ticket on them at +650 from around that time.

Turns out, that was the best price you’d get on the Chiefs all season.

After putting together a strong offseason, the Chiefs entered the year at closer to +500 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. They were neck-and-neck with the Lions, who were the considerable favorites in the NFC.

The Chiefs gave the sportsbooks very little reason to doubt them during the year. Their performances weren’t always the most impressive—they struggled to cover the spread as big favorites—but they ultimately stumbled just once in 16 games with Mahomes at quarterback. That loss came in Buffalo against the Bills, but their dominant regular-season record ensured that a playoff rematch would take place in Kansas City.

Entering the postseason, the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds dipped even further, getting to around +350. Not only did they have home-field advantage, but they also benefitted from an easier path than any other team in the conference. The Bills and Ravens felt similarly talented to the Chiefs on paper, but they had to go through each other in the divisional round. The Chiefs only had to deal with the Texans, who weren’t in the same weight class as the other three AFC powers.

When the Bills and Chiefs met once again in the postseason—their fourth playoff matchup in the past five years—Mahomes was once again able to get the last laugh vs. Josh Allen. While Allen has a 4-1 record against Mahomes during the regular season, Mahomes is now a perfect 4-0 against him in the playoffs.

The only team standing between the Chiefs and another Super Bowl title is the Eagles, the same team they defeated in the Super Bowl two years ago. The Chiefs are listed as slim favorites in that matchup, but they have been the master of covering in those spots during the postseason. Mahomes is now a perfect 8-0 ATS during the postseason as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal, so I’m not sure why you’d start betting against him now.

Time is truly a flat circle when it comes to the Chiefs. Keep this in mind before the start of next season; the best time to buy in on KC might be the very beginning.

Philadelphia Eagles

While it’s no surprise that the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl, it’s a bit more surprising for the Eagles. For starters, it’s more difficult than you might imagine to get back. Jalen Hurts is the first quarterback since John Elway to make it back to the Super Bowl after losing in his debut. That was nearly 30 years ago!

The Eagles also had a tumultuous end to their season in 2023-24. They started that season 10-1, but they had plenty of close calls along the way. They weren’t nearly as fortunate over the second half of the year, and they ultimately stumbled into a Wild Card spot at just 11-6. They were then humiliated in the first round of the playoff by the Buccaneers, who ultimately beat them 32-9.

The Eagles had a lot to address this offseason, and they’ve done a magnificent job. They’re always among the best teams in the league in the draft, and they landed two impact defensive backs in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The defense was the biggest reason for their second-half slide last year, and they managed to fix it almost overnight.

They also added Saquon Barkley, which had a much bigger impact than most people thought. Turns out, running backs do still matter when they’re as good as Barkley and you put them behind a dominant offensive line. He ran for more than 2,000 yards in just 16 games and will almost certainly take home Offensive Player of the Year. He should also garner some down-ballot MVP consideration.

However, this wasn’t necessarily known at the start of the year. There were still some question marks about how this team would bounce back after last season, and you could get them at nearly +2000 immediately following last year’s Super Bowl.

As we approached the start of the regular season, that number got down closer to +1300. There was some buzz around them, but they were a clear tier behind teams like the Lions and 49ers in the NFC.

Unlike the Chiefs, the Eagles also got off to a rocky start. They were just 2-2 heading into their Week 5 bye, which gave bettors one last chance to get the Eagles at a discount. They got back up to +1550 in late October, but that’s when the Eagles went on a massive run. They’ve lost merely once since their bye week, and that loss came in a game where Hurts got injured.

They even briefly passed the Chiefs in Super Bowl odds at one point in late December. They got down to roughly +450 to win the Super Bowl—neck-and-neck with the Lions—while the Chiefs were +500. The only other time this season they’ve been priced shorter than Kansas City was before the Conference Championships. That had to stem mostly from the matchups, with the Eagles favored by significantly more vs. the Commanders than the Chiefs were vs. the Bills.

Ultimately, the Eagles have felt undervalued in this market for most of the year, especially as the Lions started dealing with a myriad of injuries on defense. Of course, that only matters if they’re the last time standing. They’ve officially made it to the top of the mountain once again; now all they have to do is knock off Thanos. Good luck.