Super Bowl 58 Betting Preview. The 49ers Remain the Super Bowl Favorite.

Super Bowl 58 will mark a rematch between the two combatants from Super Bowl 54, a game where the Kansas City Chiefs took down the San Francisco 49ers 31-20; and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid both earned their first Super Bowl ring.

After the Chiefs beat the Ravens and the 49ers hung on to beat the Lions, these teams will meet again to decide this year’s champion.

So which one of those squads will take home the Lombardi Trophy? Let’s break down the current betting odds for the big game.

Current Super Bowl LVIII favorites

As it stands, the 49ers are still the favorites to win SB LVIII, but only by the narrowest of margins.

They currently sit at -130 on the moneyline but the line has been moving in Kansas City’s favor. The Chiefs opened around +130 on the moneyline but now sit at +110.  

The 49ers haven’t made things easy on themselves thus far. They likely should have lost to the Packers and benefited from some lucky breaks (and insanely aggressive game management by Dan Campbell) in their win against Detroit. However, they’re in the finals and will have two weeks to prepare for the Chiefs. Despite the two shaky wins, they remain the favorites in this game.

The Chiefs dominated the Ravens early on and then held on for dear life at the end of the game, relying mainly on their defense to make big plays.

In many ways, this is an entirely different Chiefs team than the one the 49ers lost to in 2019. The Chiefs offense has been their biggest liability in 2023. Gone is Tyreek Hill and the big play machine that propelled them to their first Super Bowl win and in its place is an elite defense who is great at getting pressure and making big plays when the time arises. 

Despite their struggles at times moving the ball this year the Chiefs do have two constants back from that 2019 matchup with San Francisco: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

Considering their record in games of this magnitude it would not be shocking to see this line continue to move towards the Chiefs and for the game to reach pick’em status – or potentially even see the Chiefs go off as small favorites – by game time.

Super Bowl LVIII odds for all remaining playoff teams

San Francisco 49ers (-130; BetMGM)

A juggernaut when healthy this season, the 49ers hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC and had a clear path to the Super Bowl. San Francisco lost just one game when at full strength this season, and that loss came against a Baltimore team that they wouldn't see again until the big game. Luckily (or maybe not), the Ravens lost to the Chiefs.

You can bet on the Super Bowl favorites at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Kansas City Chiefs (+110; BetMGM)

You come at the king, you best not miss.

It hasn't been a typical dominant season for Mahomes & Co., but the Chiefs are still a terrifying opponent in the postseason. Mahomes remains the best QB in football, and while Kansas City's offense has struggled, he has had the best defense of his young career in 2023.

Jan 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts during the second half of the 2024 AFC wild card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The big issue remains the pass-catchers (or lack thereof), but the emergence of Rashee Rice has helped.

Even as a rookie, Rice looked like a true No. 1 WR in their Wild Card win over the Dolphins, and old reliable Travis Kelce came through with two touchdowns in the divisional round and another massive game against the Ravens in the AFC Conference Championship game.

Current implied probabilities for each playoff team to win Super Bowl LVIII

Using the current Super Bowl LVIII betting odds via BetMGM and the Fantasy Life Betting Calculator, we can determine what implied probabilities sportsbooks are assigning to each team to win the Super Bowl.

Currently, the betting odds have the 49ers with the highest probability and a 56.52% chance of winning it all.

• San Francisco 49ers 56.52%
• Kansas City Chiefs 47.62%

You can bet on Super Bowl LVIII on BetMGM, where you can $158 in bonus bets by placing a first bet of just $5 or more. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Current best bets for Super Bowl LVIII

The 49ers and Chiefs are set to square off for the second time in the last five seasons. Both teams have looked dominant at times during the regular season, but which side is the best bet? Our experts at Fantasy Life have you covered.

Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich give their best bets below.

San Francisco 49ers (-130; BetMGM)

I’m continuing to eat the chalk with the 49ers. My premise behind backing them all postseason was that they had the best chance of reaching the Super Bowl. Step one of that mission has been accomplished.

It hasn’t been easy for San Francisco. They survived in their first playoff matchup vs. the Packers and engineered a 17-point comeback vs. the Lions. It hasn’t been pretty, but they’ve ultimately gotten the job done.

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) runs the ball against the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Now, just one test remains – but it’s the biggest test possible. They have to navigate the NFL’s final boss: Patrick Mahomes.

While the Chiefs’ offense has come to life in recent weeks, the 49ers have been the clear better team since the start of the season. They were first in EPA/play offensively, while Kansas City ranked 11th. The Chiefs had a slight edge in terms of defensive EPA/play, but the 49ers were still a top-10 unit.

The Chiefs have all the momentum – and public support – heading into this matchup. Still, I wasn’t nearly as impressed with their win over the Ravens as most. They needed a +3 turnover differential to get the job done, and the game was still very close throughout. They only managed 17 points vs. the Ravens, and you’re not beating the 49ers if your offense can’t approach 30.

The 49ers should be able to lean heavily on the run game vs. the Chiefs, which features the best running back in football. Maybe Mahomes and Andy Reid are simply too good to fade at this point, but I can’t help but see value in the 49ers.

– Matt LaMarca

Kansas City Chiefs (+110; BetMGM)

I would play this all the way down to -120.

There has been far too much talk about the Chiefs offense not being at the same level it has been in past seasons and not enough talk about the elevated play of their defense.

Over the past three games, they’ve held Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore to an average of 13.6 points per game and an average of just 5.0 yards per play. They’re also second in pressure rate and have dramatically turned up their turnover rate in the postseason as well. 

If anyone can flip the script on Kansas City and expose the Chiefs it is Kyle Shanahan and Mensa-level run schemes, but the 49ers have simply not looked the part of a serious contender in each of their last two games.

They were dominated by the Packers for the majority of that contest and then needed a series of bad breaks and decisions to go their way to scrape past the Lions. Their defense has been a huge liability in both games and, outside of Nick Bosa, the ability of their defensive line to get pressure has dried up. 

Maybe they are a team of destiny but luck often has a way of balancing out at the worst potential times and for the 49ers it feels like their tight-rope act may not hold for one more game. Ultimately, the 49ers head into Super Bowl week with more questions than answers which is not a great spot to be in when facing potentially the greatest QB of all-time in less than two weeks. 

– Geoff Ulrich

Where can you bet on the Super Bowl?

As always, line shopping remains one of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor. That’s particularly true when it comes to futures bets. While there likely won’t be huge discrepancies between the sportsbooks on individual games, there can be significant differences in the futures market.

Most of the online sportsbooks will also likely be offering promotions and odds boosts for the Super Bowl. Make sure to check out FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, and all the other sportsbooks available in your state to maximize your potential return.

Of course, you could also make an excursion to watch the Super Bowl live at a sportsbook. Whether it's going to balmy Las Vegas, the Mecca of sports betting, or perhaps just a local casino, sweating a sports bet live alongside fellow bettors is an experience unlike any other.

Where can you watch the Super Bowl? When does the Super Bowl begin?

The 2024 Super Bowl (SB LVIII) takes place on Sunday, February 11, 2024, and will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. This will be the first Super Bowl ever held in Las Vegas and the first time Allegiant Stadium hosts the event. 

Outside of going to the Super Bowl, which will cost you upwards of $6,000, the game can be watched on TV with any regular cable subscription. The Super Bowl is actually rotated among all major American networks and in 2024 it will air on CBS. 

There are a couple of other ways to watch it as well. You can stream the event live on Paramount+. or watch a “slime-centric” alternative telecast of the event on Nickelodeon. 

The Nickelodeon broadcast has yet to announce where it will be streaming but figures to feature lots of kids and family-friendly fun, with their signature slimy graphics and appearances by some familiar Nickelodeon names. 

The game has an extensive pre-game show (that starts hours before the game) but kickoff is slated for 6:30 EST. Country star Reba McIntyre is set to sing the American Anthem while rapper and songwriter Post Malone will sing America the Beautiful. 

Pop music legend “Usher” (watch this!) will be the halftime entertainment. 

Early Super Bowl LVIII line movement

While it's still a bit early to get a large sample size of the Super Bowl line movement, we've already posted our favorite early bets and lines to watch for Super Bowl 58.

Additionally, Matt LaMarca dove into where sharp money has affected the spread and total for Super Bowl 58, outlining how to approach this line movement in his Sharp Report.

What are Super Bowl Prop Bets and Super Bowl Novelty Bets?

Prop betting is the act of betting on an event that takes place inside of or during a game or sporting event. Prop bets on the Super Bowl involve betting on any event that takes place inside the game that doesn’t involve betting on the point spread, money line, or game total (aka bets that deal with only with the outcome).

Betting on a player to score a TD is a prop bet, as is betting on a QB to throw an interception. These kinds of bets are available for every NFL game but are widely available for the Super Bowl. 

Super Bowl novelty bets are less game-focused and often involve betting on events that don’t have much to do with the game – like the color of the Gatorade thrown on the winning coach at the end, or the length of the national anthem. 

Given how much betting occurs on the Super Bowl, the list of novelty props is often massive and as we get closer to the big game make sure you continue to bookmark and check this article as we’ll be breaking down as many of the Super Bowl prop and novelty bets as possible before kickoff. 

You can get the first batch of our favorite Super Bowl 58 prop bets below, including wagers on Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes, and more:

• Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets
• Matthew Freedman's favorite Super Bowl Props
• Same-Game Parlays
• TD Bets
• Ladder Bets

Most popular Super Bowl LVIII bets

The Super Bowl is like Christmas for sports bettors. Not only do you have all the traditional bets that you can make – spreads, totals, player props, etc. – but there are a ton of additional offerings that come around only once a year.

You can bet on things like the length of the National Anthem, the coin toss, and what color Gatorade will drench the winning head coach. You can even bet on whether or not there will be a safety or a defensive or special teams TD. Basically, if you can dream it, you can likely bet on it for the Super Bowl.

Of course, some special bets offer more expected value than others. For example, betting on the coin flip at anything less than +100 is a bad bet. We know that a coin flip is a 50/50 proposition, so why would you pay -105? We’ll be here to walk you through some of the best novelty or specialty props for SB LVIII, but try to keep the math in mind when making these wagers, even if you're only risking $5 or $10.

Biggest Super Bowl LVIII bets

Not all bets are created equal. While some of us are happy to just sprinkle a couple of dollars here and there, others are looking for the really big score.

The sportsbooks can breathe a bit easier after the two biggest reported wagers went down on Super Wild Card Weekend. One bettor had a $100,000 ticket on the Cowboys at +1600 for a potential $1.6 million payout, and another had $100,000 on the Dolphins at +1300.

Best offers and bonuses for betting on Super Bowl LVIII

You can take advantage of many generous welcome offers for Super Bowl 58, including the following:

BetMGM - Bet $5, Get $158 in bonus bets

DraftKings - Bet $5, get $200 INSTANTLY

FanDuel - Bet $5, get $150:

Caesars - First Bet of up to $1,000 on the house:

Previous Super Bowl winners compared to their preseason odds

The last 10 years have been dominated by the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. The Patriots went to four Super Bowls and won three of those with Brady, and he went on to win a fourth with the Buccaneers.

Three different teams have won the Super Bowl with +600 odds in preseason over the last decade. Meanwhile, the team with the longest preseason odds to have won a Super Bowl over the last 10 seasons was the Philadelphia Eagles, who were +4000 at the start of the 2016 season.

Prior Super Bowl results aren't necessarily predictive, but they do at least give us a frame of reference. Generally speaking, it looks as though big preseason underdogs have been underdogs for a reason, which is something to keep in mind when placing bets on SB LVIII.

You can place your favorite Super Bowl bet at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

Previous Super Bowl MVP Winners

Six of the last 10 winners of the Super Bowl MVP award have been quarterbacks. All of the last six QBs who have won this award, outside of Nick Foles in 2016, have gone off at +200 or shorter. 

We have witnessed some decent longshot winners of this award as well. Von Miller and Julian Edelman both went off at +2500, pre-game. Cooper Kupp also won at +600 in 2021. 

It’s worth noting that in those three games (2021, 2018 and 2015) the final scores all ended with 43 points, or less, scored. In those lower-scoring games (where there are fewer TDs scored) it seems like the voters have been more apt to lean to a position outside of QB.