The stage is officially set for Super Bowl LVIII. Well, not exactly. We still have two weeks of hoopla before the game actually kicks off, but we at least know who will be playing.

The Chiefs will represent the AFC after knocking off the top two seeds on the road in back-to-back weeks. They were underdogs in both contests — a different role than they’ve faced in the past with Patrick Mahomes — but they saved their best for the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the 49ers were widely expected to represent the NFC. What wasn’t expected was how sweaty it would be for them to get there. They barely survived against the Packers and Lions, but they’ll be looking to tie the Patriots and Steelers with their sixth Super Bowl win in franchise history.

We’ll have ample time to break down everything about this contest over the next two weeks, but getting in some early betting value can still be important. I didn’t  cover with the Ravens or 49ers last week, but getting them at -3.0 and -6.5 respectively still represented great betting value.

Let’s take a look at the early offerings for Super Bowl LVIII.

San Francisco 49ers ML vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Current Line: -118; FanDuel
  • Target Range: -120 or better

Most weeks, I head into this column with a pretty good idea of how I’m going to attack each game. That said, this ain’t most weeks. There’s only one game to choose from, and it features two teams that are really tough to handicap at the moment.

Let’s start with the Chiefs. They played possum on offense during the regular season, ranking 11th in EPA/play, 15th in points and ninth in yards. There were legit questions about whether or not Mahomes had enough ammunition to survive against teams like the Bills and Ravens.

They looked significantly better in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but both of those performances came with caveats. The Dolphins were missing their top five sack-getters from the regular season, while the Bills had multiple injuries in their back seven.

I was skeptical that they could produce at the same level vs. the Ravens. Baltimore’s D wasn’t just the best unit they’ve seen during the playoffs — and arguably the best defense in the league — but they were fully healthy.

That was true to an extent. The Chiefs only managed 17 points and were outgained by the Ravens, but that was still enough to secure the win. Kansas City’s defense played phenomenally against presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, and they forced the Ravens into three turnovers.

On the other side, the 49ers put themselves into a 17-point deficit heading into halftime vs. Detroit. However, they responded with 27 unanswered points and held on to a three-point win.

The 49ers clearly played better in the second half, but they also ran insanely pure. The Lions had two failed fourth-down conversions, one of which hit Josh Reynolds right in the numbers. They secured a fumble deep in Detroit territory. Brandon Aiyuk caught a 50-plus-yard pass that deflected off a defender's facemask.

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Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the second half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The 49ers were able to capitalize off of their good luck, but the odds of all of that happening again are basically zero.

So, how do you choose between two teams with inconsistent resumes? I’m personally going to trust the longer body of work of the 49ers.

San Francisco has been the clear better team over the course of the season. They entered the conference championships rated a +10.01 in Massey-Peabody, while the Chiefs were +5.82. That gap will probably shrink a bit heading into the Super Bowl, but I still think the numbers will favor San Francisco.

Kyle Shanahan should also be better prepared to exploit the Chiefs’ defense than John Harbaugh was. I have no idea why the team with the best rushing attack in the NFL chose not to run the ball vs. Kansas City. It was a mind-boggling decision. The Chiefs were third in dropback EPA but 28th in rushing EPA during the regular season. The game was never really out of reach for Baltimore, yet they still had just 16 carries compared to 37 pass attempts. The Ravens' two primary running backs — Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — had just six totes combined. No team ran the ball at a higher frequency than the Ravens during the regular season, yet they completely went away from it in their most important game of the year.

Don’t expect the 49ers to do the same. If anything, Shanahan is known for being too conservative with his playcalling. He would love to give the ball to Christian McCaffrey as much as humanly possible, and he should find plenty of success in this matchup.

If the 49ers’ offense can hum at the same efficiency they had during the regular season, I’m not sure that Kansas City can keep up. That feels crazy to say about a Mahomes-led offense, but it’s been the case for most of the year. Their defense was the reason they survived vs. the Ravens.

With the way the line is set currently, I think the 49ers’ moneyline provides the best value. They’ve been the better team over the course of the full 21-week season, and they’ve survive a couple of scares. Fading Mahomes and Andy Reid is terrifying — particularly with extra time to prepare — but I’m going to trust the longer sample size.

You can tail the moneyline at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!

Other Bets to Consider

Over 47.5 (-110; BetMGM)

The over has already gotten up to 49.0 at some locations, so I think this bet is a great candidate to lock in early. I don’t think there will be a ton of interest on the under, so I only see this number heading in one direction.

We know about the 49ers’ offense. After a slow start, they rattled off five consecutive scoring drives after halftime (three touchdowns, two field goals). The Chiefs’ defense is better than Detroit’s, but they’re still not particularly imposing.

On the other side, the 49ers’ defense has been exposed over the past month. They gave up a huge performance to the Ravens on Christmas, and the Lions racked up 442 yards in the NFC Championship. With Mahomes seemingly finding his groove over the past few weeks, the Chiefs should be able to hold their own.

Finally, don’t forget about Reid. He’s an offensive genius, and he’s shown time and again that he will come up with creative ways to score with additional time to prepare. He found a flaw in the Eagles’ goal line defense last year that directly led to two touchdowns.

I’ve already locked in Over 47.5 into our NFL Bet Tracker.

You can tail the over at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below with code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Christian McCaffrey MVP (+500; DraftKings)

We all know that quarterbacks dominate the MVP market, but it hasn’t been quite as tilted toward the position in recent years. Two of the past five MVPs have been receivers, so it’s not nearly as foregone of a conclusion as in years past.

The last running back to win the award was Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII, but I think McCaffrey has the potential to break that streak if the 49ers can win. He’s the team’s best player, and he’s scored at least two touchdowns in back-to-back games. With the Chiefs being much more vulnerable against the run than the pass, it’s the perfect matchup for him to go crazy.

Also, I would be considering Mahomes to win MVP at +150 (FanDuel) if you like the Chiefs to win. Mahomes has won the MVP in his previous two Super Bowl victories, and his reputation makes it really unlikely that someone other than him will win if the Chiefs hoist the Lombardi. That bet offers more value than grabbing the Chiefs on the moneyline.

It’s even possible to bet Mahomes MVP and the 49ers moneyline to ensure a victory in either scenario if you bet correctly. It’s not a perfect arbitrage scenario, but it’s pretty darn close.

You can bet on McCaffrey to win Super Bowl MVP at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5:

Early Betting Lines