With free agency mostly in the books and the NFL Draft around the corner, this is a great time to check back in on the futures market. I took a look at some of my favorite win total over/unders last week, but there’s also been plenty of movement in the Super Bowl odds.
Let’s take a look at some of my favorite options in each tier to win the Super Bowl in 2023-24 and where to find the best price tags.
Favorites
Chiefs (+650; BetMGM)
If you’re looking for a favorite to target in the futures market, you’d be hard pressed to find a better candidate than the Chiefs.
The Chiefs may not have the best overall roster in terms of talent, but they have one thing that no other team does: Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes isn’t just the best quarterback in football—he’s trending toward being one of the best quarterbacks in league history.
His consistency has been remarkable since he took over as a full-time starter in 2018. He’s led the team to the AFC Championship game in five straight seasons, something that has only previously been done by Tom Brady and Ken Stabler. That’s pretty darn good company, and Mahomes did it in his first five years.
Mahomes has also led the Chiefs to three Super Bowl appearances over that stretch, and he’s won two of them. The lone exception was against Brady’s Buccaneers while playing behind a paper mâché offensive line.
Mahomes also took home his second MVP award in arguably his most impressive season to date. His numbers weren’t quite as good as they were in his first MVP season, but he did it without the benefit of Tyreek Hill. He still led the league in both touchdown passes and passing yards per game despite the worst supporting cast of his career.
The 2023-24 version of the Chiefs should look pretty similar to last year’s. They did lose a premier offensive lineman in Orlando Brown Jr., but they brought in Jawaan Taylor to replace him. Pro Football Focus ranked Brown as the No. 1 offensive tackle heading into free agency, but Taylor checked in at No. 3. Taylor is a far better pass-protector than he is a run-blocker, so he should fit in perfectly in KC.
The team also lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman at receiver, but neither player was particularly impactful last year. Hardman played in just eight games last season—none in the postseason—while Smith-Schuster managed less than 60 yards per game as the team’s No. 1 receiver.
Their roles should be able to be absorbed by guys like Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Richie James. The Chiefs could also look to address the position during the draft, where they have 10 picks.
As long as Mahomes and Andy Reid are in town, the Chiefs are going to contend for a championship every single year. There’s always a chance that Mahomes could get hurt, but as long as he stays healthy, they’re the favorites for a sixth straight trip to the AFC Championship.
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Cowboys (+1700; PointsBet)
The NFC feels wide open heading into the upcoming season.
The Eagles were the best team in the conference last year, but they also benefited from a really easy schedule. I would be shocked if they won as many games as they did last year, especially considering all their losses in free agency. They lost multiple key contributors from last year’s squad, including Javon Hargrave, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Isaac Seumalo, and Miles Sanders.
If the Eagles open the door, the Cowboys will be there to walk through it.
Jan 16, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) and running back Tony Pollard (20) react after a play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter during a wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
They continue to absolutely load up on defense. They already boasted one of the best pass rushes in football, and they added Stephon Gilmore to shore up their secondary. Gimore may not be quite as dominant as he was in his prime, but he still finished as the No. 9 cornerback last season per PFF.
This team has struggled to get over the hump in the postseason, but they’ve won 12 games in back-to-back seasons. They could be even better next season, and there’s no fundamental reason why this team can’t win in the playoffs. They’re outstanding on both sides of the ball, and they have a borderline elite quarterback in Dak Prescott.
Oftentimes, players are branded as guys who “can’t win in the playoffs” until it actually happens. That was the knock on all-time greats like Peyton Manning and John Elway, and both players finished their careers with multiple rings. I’m obviously not comparing Prescott to those players, but I think the narrative that he “can’t win the big one” is silly.
Don’t forget, before losing to the 49ers in the divisional round, the Cowboys steamrolled the Bucs on the road in the wild card. Perhaps this is the year they finally get over the hump.
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Contenders
Jaguars (+2800; DraftKings)
The Jaguars are a “trendy” team right now, with many people labeling them as dark horse Super Bowl contenders. That said, just because a team is trendy doesn’t mind they can’t find success. The Eagles were the trendy Super Bowl sleeper heading into last season, and bettors who took a flyer on them were definitely rewarded.
The Jaguars check a lot of similar boxes to the Eagles heading into next season.
Both teams were led by quarterbacks entering their third year. Jalen Hurts was able to take the leap, establishing himself as an MVP candidate before getting hurt near the end of the year. Is it possible that Trevor Lawrence can do the same thing? Absolutely.
From a prospect standpoint, Lawrence entered the league with as much fanfare as any passer since Andrew Luck. He was considered a “can’t-miss” at quarterback, and he started to show signs of that during the second half of last season.
Over his final nine regular season starts, Lawrence racked up 15 touchdown passes compared to just 2 interceptions. He averaged 8.09 adjusted yards per attempt, and he added another two scores on the ground.
Lawrence struggled mightily in the first half of his first playoff contest, but he led the team to a tremendous comeback victory over the Chargers. That’s the kind of performance that can springboard a player to more success in the future.
Lawrence will also get a significant upgrade to his pass-catchers this season in the form of Calvin Ridley. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Ridley, but he racked up 1,374 yards and 9 touchdowns over 15 games in his last full season.
Adding him to a core that already includes Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne gives the Jaguars a young, talented group of playmakers to build around.
If Lawrence can take another leap in his third season, he has a chance to take the Jags on a deep postseason run.
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Ravens (+3300; BetRivers)
There is a lot of uncertainty with the Ravens at the moment, which is reflected in their Super Bowl odds across the industry. They’re down as low as +2100 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but you can get them at +3300 on BetRivers.
That feels like a steal.
Of course, the uncertainty revolves around Lamar Jackson’s contract, and there’s a chance he never suits up for the team again. That said, does this sound like a guy who doesn’t plan on playing:
Even though Jackson clearly isn’t getting the deal he wants in free agency, his best chance of getting paid is by playing well in 2023-24.
Adding Odell Beckham Jr. and a healthy Rashod Bateman should help tremendously. After Bateman went down with an injury last year, the Ravens had easily the worst group of receivers in the league.
During the first four games of the year—while Bateman was fully healthy—Jackson averaged 223 passing yards, 2.8 passing touchdowns, and 79 rushing yards per game. In Jackson’s final seven full games, those numbers dropped to 191.1 passing yards, 0.9 passing touchdowns, and 62.7 rushing yards. Giving Jackson better weapons should undoubtedly lead to better performances in the upcoming year.
Even with all that adversity, the Ravens still managed to win 10 games! The Ravens are one of those organizations that you can always trust to be competitive, and as long as Jackson is under center, I see no reason why that should change in 2023. They’re currently priced in the same tier as teams like the Browns and Saints, which feels like a big mistake.
Long Shots
Bears (+6000; FanDuel)
If you’re tired of me writing about the Bears, I get it. I wrote up what they should do this offseason. I wrote up the over on their win total. I wrote them up in a recent newsletter.
That said, I feel as though the Bears present the biggest opportunity in the futures market at the moment.
Nov 20, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs past Atlanta Falcons cornerback Darren Hall (34) in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
They’ve started to get priced more appropriately at certain locations, but they’re still available at +6000 on FanDuel. At that number, there are plenty of strong hedge opportunities if this team makes the playoffs.
Justin Fields is the biggest reason to be excited about the Bears. He made a small leap in 2022-23, but most of his success came with his legs. With D.J. Moore joining Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney at receiver, this could be the year where we start to see some improvement with his arm.
Hurts didn’t have nearly the same level of success as Fields as a passer in college, but adding A.J. Brown allowed him to take his game to the next level. We could see something similar with Fields in 2023-24.
The team should also be vastly improved on defense. They’ve already brought in five players in their front seven, and they still have some cap space to work with in free agency. They’ll also likely address the defense during the draft, where they have five selections in the first 103 picks.
Do I really think the Bears can win the Super Bowl? Probably not. But I do think they can win the NFC North. If they do that, we’ll be able to make some money by hedging this ticket during the playoffs.
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