Matt LaMarca breaks down the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LIX early betting odds.
We are officially set for a Super Bowl rematch. The Chiefs and Eagles will square off for the second time in the past three seasons, with both teams picking up home victories in the conference championships. The Chiefs picked up a three-point win over the Eagles the last time these squads met in the Super Bowl, and they followed that up with another championship the following year. Ultimately, they’ll be looking to become the first team to “three-peat” in Super Bowl history.
The Eagles’ roster looks a bit different than it did the last two times these teams squared off for the Lombardi Trophy. Jason Kelce is gone—though I’m sure we’ll still see plenty of him over the next two weeks—while the defense has been completely revamped. Their offense has also been turbocharged by the addition of Saquon Barkley, who has been unstoppable all season. He had another 100+ yards and 3 touchdowns in the NFC Championship, with the Eagles ultimately rolling to 55 points. It was the most points scored in a Conference Championship in NFL history, besting the previous record of 51 by the 1990-91 Bills.
Can the Eagles get some revenge in the rematch, or will the Chiefs pick up their third straight title? Let’s dive into the early betting markets to see if we can find some value.
Chiefs vs. Eagles—49.5 Total
Pick: Chiefs -1.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Bet to: -2.5
At this point, I’m starting to feel like a broken record writing about the Chiefs. This spot feels very similar to last week’s matchup vs. the Bills, which feels very similar to the Chiefs’ matchups vs. the 49ers, Bills, and Ravens in last year’s postseason.
On paper, the Eagles are the superior team. They’ve graded out better in nearly every metric across the board, specifically on defense. From Week 10 on, they were the No. 1 defense in the league in terms of EPA per play. They were able to force three turnovers against the Commanders in the NFC Championship, which is a big reason why they were able to cruise to a win.
The Eagles also have one of the best rushing attacks in football, led by Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts. That could spell trouble for Kansas City. The Chiefs have been slightly improved against the run this season, but it’s still not what I would call a strength. They were No. 11 in rush defense EPA during the regular season, but they allowed 147 yards and 4.6 yards per attempt to the Bills on Sunday. Shutting down Josh Allen and James Cook is no picnic, but Barkley and Hurts are arguably even tougher.
Still, I can’t help but side with the Chiefs in what is expected to be a close contest. This game was listed at -1.5 on the look-ahead line, and that’s exactly what it opened at on Sunday night. It has touched -2.0 at certain locations, but as long as it stays under a field goal, it’s hard to ignore what the Chiefs bring to the table.
It starts with Patrick Mahomes, who is better at winning coin-flip games than possibly any QB in league history. With his win over the Bills on Sunday, he’s now a perfect 8-0 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than 3.0 points in the playoffs. He’s 13-7-1 ATS in that split during the regular season, bringing him to 21-7-1 ATS in that split overall.
There’s also the coaching edge to consider. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in NFL history, and while I personally think Nick Sirianni gets more hate than he deserves, there’s no doubt that it’s a mismatch. That’s especially true with additional time to prepare. Reid put on a masterclass in the Super Bowl vs. the Eagles two years ago, scripting up multiple plays for uncontested touchdowns near the goal line. Expect him to be in the lab grinding once again before Super Bowl LIX.
Add it all up, and I have to grab the Chiefs in this spot. It won’t shock me if the Eagles pull off the win, but Mahomes and Reid have come through for bettors in this spot time and time again. Fade them at your own peril.
That said, I don’t think there’s any rush to go out and lock them in now. I would be shocked if this number got higher than 2.5 points, so there’s no real risk in waiting it out. It’s possible that there’s more interest than expected in the Eagles, so we can see how the line develops.
LEAN: Chiefs -1.5
The total is where I see the biggest edge in this matchup. Both of these teams just played in shootouts, and that was in outdoor stadiums. The Eagles and Commanders combined for more 78 points, while the Chiefs and Bills got to 61. Both games ultimately flew over their respective totals.
Now, both teams will move indoors for the Super Bowl. There has historically been a big edge in targeting overs in indoor postseason contests. The over has gone 37-18-0 in domed stadiums during playoff games since 2003, including a perfect 2-0 so far this postseason. Mahomes and the Chiefs also went over in the Super Bowl last year, his only career playoff outing in a domed stadium other than the Super Bowl against the Eagles two years ago. Overall, five of the past seven Super Bowls to be played in a dome went over the listed total.
This is a bet that I do feel confident jumping on early. While both of these teams can play defense, they can also light up the scoreboard when needed. We didn’t see a ton of that from the Chiefs during the regular season, but they proved they still have that in the chamber vs. the Bills. The Eagles don’t put up points in the conventional method, but they’ve scored 105 points through their first three playoff outings.
I could see this number eclipsing 50 over the next two weeks, so I want to lock this one in while it’s still available. Let’s hope that we get another high-scoring affair between these two squads, just like we did when they wrapped up the 2022-23 NFL season.
BET: Over 49.5
