Super Bowl 59 is quickly approaching, and Matt LaMarca is here to guide you through his Super Bowl MVP picks:

There is no better time to be a sports bettor than the Super Bowl. Super Bowl Sunday feels like Christmas morning, with tons of bets ready to be unwrapped underneath the tree. You can bet on just about anything and everything, including the coin toss, the National Anthem, and what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach’s head.

Of course, there are some traditional markets worth exploring as well. In addition to betting on the game itself, you can also bet on who is going to take home the MVP.

Trends For Making Your Super Bowl MVP Picks

Geoff Ulrich dove into some MVP trends in a recent Betting Life Newsletter, but here’s a quick recap for anyone who missed it:

1. QBs Reign Supreme

This isn’t exactly a shocker. The league has become increasingly quarterback-driven, so quarterbacks tend to receive this award at an overwhelming clip. QBs have taken home the hardware in 33 of the first 58 Super Bowls, including 13 of the past 18 years. Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 3-for-3 in terms of winning the MVP when the Chiefs hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

2. RBs Don’t Matter

The running back position is having a bit of a revival in 2024-25, with Saquon Barkley leading the way. However, Barkley is going to have to overcome some history if he hopes to take home the MVP. Only seven RBs have won a Super Bowl MVP, and the last occurrence was Terrell Davis all the way back in 1998.

However, Davis and Barkley have some similarities. Davis rushed for more than 2,000 yards during the regular season, and he had at least 100 rushing yards in every playoff contest. If the Eagles can upset the Chiefs, Barkley feels like a real threat to break that streak.

3. Don’t Sleep on Defense

Picking which defender is going to make an impact in the Super Bowl can be difficult, but the payout has the potential to be big. After all, eight defenders have won Super Bowl MVP, which trails only the QB position. It’s one more than we’ve seen from the running back position, and it’s the same as the number of receivers to take home the hardware.

With that in mind, let’s dive into some of my favorite Super Bowl MVP bets for Chiefs-Eagles.

Super Bowl 59 MVP Picks

Patrick Mahomes (+105; BetMGM)

Personally, I think approaching the Chiefs in the MVP market is pretty easy. Until someone other than Mahomes wins a Super Bowl MVP, I have a hard time believing it’s going to happen.

You can absolutely make a case against Mahomes if you try hard enough. If their first playoff game against the Texans came in the Super Bowl, the award likely would’ve gone to Travis Kelce. He had 117 yards and caught Mahomes’ only passing touchdown, while Mahomes threw for less than 200 yards overall. A pass-catcher won the Super Bowl MVP in two of Tom Brady’s seven Super Bowl wins, so it’s possible for a GOAT-level QB to lose the award in a victory.

Still, do you really want to bet against that happening?

Even if Mahomes does post subpar numbers, he would need someone on his team to steal the award away from him. The Chiefs’ passing attack has operated without a clear alpha receiver all season. Kelce has had some big postseason outings, but he was limited to just four targets and two catches last week. If it’s not going to be Kelce, can someone like Xavier Worthy really steal the award from Mahomes? I doubt it.

Ultimately, the Chiefs are -115 on the moneyline in this matchup, so we’re not getting a ton of value with Mahomes at +105 to win MVP. You should probably just pay the extra 20 cents of juice and take the bet out of the voter’s hands. But if I’m betting someone on the Chiefs’ offense to win this award, it’s going to be the guy on pace to be the greatest QB in NFL history.

Jalen Hurts (+375; BetMGM)

Wow, another quarterback. Way to go out on a limb, LaMarca.

I’ve talked and written about this game in multiple facets this week, and I like the Chiefs to prevail. It’s hard to go against their track record. Mahomes doesn’t lose games like this, and Andy Reid is nearly impossible to beat with extra time to prepare.

That said, I still think this bet is a phenomenal value. Does Barkley deserve to be the betting favorite for the Eagles? Probably. But should the gap between him and Hurts be this large? Absolutely not.

Despite the phenomenal season that Barkley has had, he’s still going to have to fight the narrative that running backs aren’t particularly valuable. Even if he runs for 100 yards and a touchdown—something he’s done at a high rate all season—I still think he’s going to need a down game from Hurts to win the award. Quarterbacks are just inherently more valuable, and last I checked, that’s exactly what the “V” in MVP stands for.

Hurts is also a fantastic player in his own right. Don’t forget that he likely would’ve taken home the regular-season MVP two years ago if not for a late-season injury. From an efficiency standpoint, he’s been basically the same guy this season. He’s averaged an identical 8.42 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer, and he contributed 32 total touchdowns.

Hurts is coming off his best game of the postseason in the NFC Championship, racking up 241 passing yards, 16 rushing yards, and four total touchdowns. I think he would’ve taken home the MVP for that performance, and I think the Eagles will need that level of production to win vs. the Chiefs.

Longshot Bets For Super Bowl MVP

Chris Jones (+6000; BetMGM)

If I’m taking a Chief not named Mahomes, I’m going to the defensive side of the ball. Jones is their premier defender, so he stands out as the most logical option.

Jones is going to have his hands full with the Eagles’ offensive line, which is arguably the best in football. However, they are a bit banged up on the interior. Starting Center Cam Jurgens and starting Left Guard Landon Dickerson are both expected to play, but both players are dealing with injuries. It’s possible that they’re at less than 100%, and that’s not a strong recipe for stopping Jones.

Jones hasn’t been quite as dominant this year from a statistical standpoint, racking up just five sacks and nine tackles for loss. However, he was still good enough to earn his third-straight First-Team All-Pro selection.

He’ll likely need a few splash plays to get in the MVP conversation, but if he can help shut down Barkley and the Eagle's dominant run game while racking up a sack or two vs. Hurts? That should be enough to put him in the conversation. Then it comes down to what happens with the Chiefs on offense. Ultimately, +6000 is good enough for me to take a flyer.

DeVonta Smith (+6600; BetMGM)

Smith has been a non-factor for the Eagles during this playoff run, and he’s had a pretty quiet year overall. The Eagles haven’t had to throw the ball very often, and when they have, A.J. Brown has been the recipient more often than not. Dallas Goedert has also gotten more involved during the playoffs, so there hasn’t been a ton of opportunities for Smith to make plays.

That said, I just have a sneaky feeling that Smith is going to come down with a few big catches in this one.

In two regular-season games against the Chiefs, he went for 13 catches and 221 receiving yards. In their Super Bowl matchup two years ago, Smith had seven grabs for exactly 100 yards. In other words—he’s absolutely shredded in this matchup.

As mentioned previously, WR stands out as the No. 2 position from an MVP standpoint, trailing only quarterbacks. Brown is the most likely candidate to take home the hardware, but Smith is available at nearly double the price tag. I’ll take my chances with the long shot.

Josh Sweat (+25000; Caesars)

Sweat is my YOLO huck at the Super Bowl MVP. I’m a firm believer that splash plays win awards on defense. Things like sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns. You’re going to need to come up with at least a few of those if you’re going to take home the hardware.

Sweat is the team leader in sacks this season at 8.0. If the Eagles can shut down Mahomes—which is way easier said than done—they’re going to have to put him on his backside a couple of times. He doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, so I’d rather bet on a pass-rusher making an impact than someone in the secondary coming down with a couple of interceptions.

While the Eagles’ premier defensive options are all priced inside 100-1, Sweat is well behind them at 250-1. Is this bet likely to hit? Absolutely not. But I’m willing to roll the dice for a massive potential payout.