In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

Welcome to Super Wild Card Weekend! I say this pretty often, but it feels particularly apt at the moment—what a great time for football fans.

We’re currently smack dab in the middle of five straight days with playoff football. We had nice appetizers with the C semifinals on Thursday and Friday, and now we’re off to the main course on Saturday.

We’ll have two NFL games to choose from on Saturday. Things get started with the Texans hosting the Chargers at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Steelers at the Ravens at 8 p.m. ET. Those might not be two games that jump off the page for NFL fans this weekend, but there’s still plenty to enjoy with both contests.

In the first, we’ll have a battle between two of the most promising young quarterbacks in the NFL. C.J. Stroud took the league by storm as a rookie, but he’s taken a step back in his second season. However, who can forget his first playoff performance last year? He absolutely torched a historically good Browns defense, hanging 45 points on the scoreboard.

Justin Herbert will be on the other side, and he’ll be looking to erase his only playoff memory. His team jumped out to a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars in his first playoff start, only to blow the third-largest lead in postseason history.

In the nightcap, it doesn’t get much better than a good old-fashioned rivalry game. These two teams and coaches know each other extremely well, and they’ve delivered a host of good games in the past. This year’s contest isn’t expected to be super competitive, but Mike Tomlin has a track record of getting the best out of his players when least expected. Lamar Jackson will also be looking to exercise some playoff demons, so perhaps this game will be closer than expected.

Let’s dive into both contests for Saturday, as well as some general betting trends for the NFL playoffs.

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Watercooler: An All-Pro shocker flips the MVP market on its head
  • NFL Saturday: Target the Texans as home dogs?
  • Playoff Betting Trends: Beware first-time starters at quarterback.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER


The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

💰 Props and chops! Matthew Freedman and Geoff Ulrich break down their favorite prop bets for the first round and how to approach the CHOPionship.

đŸȘ“ The action doesn’t stop with the end of the NFL regular season. Still plenty of Guilloteenies and CHOPionships!

📈 Is that cooterdoodle’s music? Some massive long-shot parlays, if you’re not too scared.

🔼 The start of the playoffs is always a great time for a futures market refresh. The Betting Life crew dives in with five-word answers.

🏆 The NFL announced the first-team All-Pro selections on Friday, and there was a big surprise at quarterback. Lamar Jackson emerges as the new MVP favorite.

🧐 Check out these props and picks for the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

NFL Wild Card Saturday Best Bets

by Matt LaMarca & Geoff Ulrich

Chargers (-3.0) at Texans—42.5 total

The first game of the week is one of my favorites from a betting perspective. It’s also one of the few games where we’ve seen some clear sharp activity. The pros have some interest in the Texans now that they’re catching a full field goal at home.

Houston has been a pretty massive disappointment this season, but what have the Chargers done to deserve this respect? They have just two wins against playoff teams this season, both of which came against the equally uninspiring Broncos. They went just 2-5 against playoff opponents overall, and four of those losses came by at least a touchdown.

C.J. Stroud got his first taste of playoff action last year, and he was extremely impressive. Justin Herbert has actually played in fewer playoff games than Stroud, and his lone performance was a massive collapse against the Jaguars. The Chargers led that game 27-0 before ultimately suffering a 31-30 defeat.

The public has a clear interest in the Chargers, but I really don’t see much of a difference between these squads. It’s enough to push me toward the Texans as home dogs.

Bet: Texans +3.0 (-115)

Prop: John Metchie Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

Projection 26.0 yards

I think there is a lot of fear of Diontae Johnson baked into this line, which is very short considering John Metchie has been operating as the No. 2 WR (or 2B) in this offense since Tank Dell got hurt. Metchie has posted target shares of 15% or greater in each of his last three games and posted 48 and 24 yards in his last two starts. 

Now that his total is under 20 yards and the Texans are facing a pass-funnel defense in the Chargers, I don’t see any reason not to be bullish on Metchie outperforming this line in the first playoff game.

Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)—43.5 total

The line movement in this game happened very quickly. The books opened with the Ravens as 8.5-point home favorites, but the sharps quickly pushed it out to -9.5. Since then, the line has hovered between 9.5 and 10.0, and it’s currently listed at 10 across most of the industry.

These two teams (and coaching staffs) are very familiar with each other. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh have squared off countless times in the past, including two previous matchups in the regular season. The Steelers managed to squeak out a win when these squads met in Pittsburgh, but the Ravens dominated when they met in Baltimore.

That win by the Ravens is a big reason why they ended up winning the AFC North and will get to host the rubber match. Tomlin is known for being an elite underdog coach, but that hasn’t translated to the postseason. He’s one of the best in the business at getting his team up for a game, but motivation is rarely a question in the playoffs. Tomlin is just 2-4-1 ATS as a dog during the postseason, well below his 63-34-3 mark during the regular season.

The Steelers have also come crashing back to reality a bit of late. They’ve lost four straight games, and they’ve had less than 200 yards of total offense in two of them. That includes last week’s game vs. the Bengals, who have been unable to stop anyone basically all year. That’s a big red flag heading into a matchup with one of the best teams in football.

There’s still a Ravens -9.5 (-115) available on FanDuel, and that’s my preferred way to attack this contest.

Bet: Ravens -9.5 (-115)

Prop: George Pickens Over 3.5 receptions (-125; bet365)

Projection: 4.2 receptions

George Pickens had arguably the worst game of his career in the season finale vs. the Bengals. He had multiple drops, challenged some fans to a fight, and managed only one catch for no yards. 

I think it’s created a great buy-low spot. 

Pickens is still the unquestioned leader of this receiving corps and plays for a player’s coach in Mike Tomlin, who knows Pickens remains his best offensive player. 

He’s gone over 3.5 receptions in five of eight games with Wilson at QB this season and is in a decent matchup vs. a Ravens secondary he beat for 8 receptions and 89 yards in Week 11. If this price drops below -150, I'd likely think about playing the over on his yards instead, as long as the total is under 55 yards. 

WHAT ABOUT SUNDAY & MONDAY?

Betting Trends to Know for the NFL Playoffs

by Matt LaMarca

Experience Matters

This is one of my favorite playoff trends, and it’s pretty simple on the surface. Essentially, quarterbacks who are making their first career playoff start tend to struggle against quarterbacks who have already made it there. Since 2003, first-time starters are just 22-41-3 ATS when squaring off with someone who has already made it to the dance. That’s good for a cover rate of less than 35%!

Out of the six first-round matchups for Super Wild Card Weekend, three fit that description:

Broncos (Bo Nix) at Bills (Josh Allen)

Commanders (Jayden Daniels) at Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield)

Vikings (Sam Darnold) at Rams (Matthew Stafford)

I’m not saying that you can’t bet on a first-time starter in the first round. We just saw Stroud erupt in his playoff debut vs. the Browns last year, so they’re clearly capable of covering the right situation. But I probably wouldn’t want to bet on all of the first-time QBs.

Location, Location, Location

Playoff games take place in January, which is smack dab in the middle of winter. Football is a game where the elements matter, and the elements undoubtedly become a bigger factor as the weather gets colder.

As a result, there’s a pretty easy split when betting totals. Games that are played indoors have gone 35-18-0 to the over since 2003. That includes a near-perfect 4-1 mark last season. Two first-round matchups will be contested indoors this week: Chargers-Texans and Vikings-Rams.

Conversely, outdoor playoff contests tend to go under. The under is 103-79-5 in outdoor postseason contests since 2003, and the other four games will all be played in open stadiums. None of those games should be particularly hampered by the weather, but make sure to monitor the conditions before kickoff. Some of those contests figure to be pretty high-scoring—particularly Commanders-Buccaneers—but keep that in mind before actually betting.

Fade “Lucky” Teams

“You are what your record says you are.” That’s a fun saying, but it’s not particularly true for betting purposes. The NFL has easily the smallest regular season among the big four American sports, which opens the door for volatility. One hot streak with a few fluky wins can turn a mediocre squad into a good one.

Teams that have overperformed their Pythagorean Expectation by greater than 10% have historically been prime fade candidates in the playoffs. Fading those squads has netted bettors a record of 70-41-1 ATS since 2003.

That said, there are only two teams that fit that description in the first round 
 and they just so happen to play each other. The Vikings had 14 actual wins compared to 11.1 expected (-16.9%), while the Rams had 10 wins compared to 8.0 expected (-11.0%).

That obviously makes this trend not applicable, but I would personally be more skeptical of the Vikings. The Rams’ expected win total is impacted by a 31-point loss to the Cardinals back in Week 2, which came when the team was playing shorthanded. The Vikings are also the favored squad, and fading “lucky” favorites has been slightly more profitable than fading “lucky” underdogs.

In the second round, the winner of Vikings-Rams and the Chiefs (15 actual wins; 10.2 expected) will both qualify for this trend.

MORE NFL FUTURES BETS

Sharp Hunter: Will Chargers Put The Texans Under?

By Mike Mutnansky

The NFL might be calling it regular ol’ Wild Card Weekend rather than SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND, but it’s still super in the hearts of all of us at Sharp Hunter. 

Six games. 

Three days. 

Hopefully many, many winners. 

At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking bets from thousands of sharp bettors. You can see the Sharp Score for NFL Playoff games, NBA games, and all the College Basketball action. 

Saturday’s action starts in Houston with the Texans hosting the Chargers at 4:30 P.M. ET. The Chargers are 3-point road favorites in a game with a consensus total of 42.5. 

The sharps at Sharp Hunter are betting the under in the first game of the weekend—and we’re showing a One-Bag Sharp Score to show that action. 

I love the play and will be betting with the sharps here. 

TheSe are two similar teams. Good defenses, slow offenses. 

How slow? Per FTN’s SEC/SNAP stat that measures a team’s pace: 

CHARGERS—32nd overall and 32nd in neutral-pace situations.
TEXANS—22nd overall and 27th in neutral-pace situations.

So the slowest and one of the slowest offenses in the NFL squaring off here. 

Both come in with top-10 DVOA defenses. The Texans’ offense ranks 26th, and will have trouble moving the football with no Tank Dell at WR.  

C.J. Stroud is likely to be under pressure all day with a bad OL in front of him. Starter Shaq Mason is OUT on Saturday.

The Chargers’ offense will be without WR Joshua Palmer.  

How about a trend? The last 18 NFL playoff games in a dome have gone 12-6 to the under, per Action Network.

I really wish I had grabbed 44.5 at open, but 42.5 is still a playable under to kick off the slate on Saturday.

The sharps at Sharp Hunter agree—they’re betting UNDER 42.5. 

I’ll be there, betting with them, to kick off the Wild Card action on Saturday.

SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND NFL GAME MODELS