In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues
Too much work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy. Let’s get away from the professorial lectures for once and into some gaming. With just a few weeks to go, it’s officially NFL survivor season.
Over the years, I’ve gotten into the survivor concept, becoming an avid player with a shared large field win — and I’d love nothing more than to add a solo crown to the resume.
Starting next week, I’m proud to announce I’ll be teaming up with Coach Gene Clemmons on a weekly series to help you outwit, outlast, and outplay the competition.
Its approach, strategy, and forward layout begin next Thursday to prepare for Week 1, when there are no mistakes allowed. I really do love the immediacy of the format packaged with insane weekly sweats.
So mark your Betting Life calendar—I can’t wait to get started!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Backing Harris' New Campaign Strategy
Made you look! We’re talking about a Harris campaign strategy alright, just one in Pittsburgh—not the Nation’s Capital.
It’s halftime of the NFL preseason as coaches do their very best to hide and obfuscate anything (ANYTHING!) that might possibly be used against them.
A main cog in this fake news machine is player injuries and their severity. Sometimes, my first instinct says it’s an excuse to protect stars, but when you start hearing the term “weeks,” the antennae should stand up. My history in the fantasy football streets has gifted me more than enough scars from misplaced injury optimism.
Pittsburgh’s front office came right out and told NFL Network that RB Jaylen Warren “would be out multiple weeks due to a hamstring injury sustained Saturday and his status for the season opener is up in the air.” Not great, Bob.
The same Pittsburgh staff could not have been more clear in its intentions to run the football in 2024 either. Investing multiple early-round picks into the offensive line while hiring billionaire playboy Arthur Smith to run the offense isn’t exactly subtle. The Steelers even upgraded to Mr. Unlimited under center, who last I checked can still hand the ball off.
The point being, that it’s high time to get bullish on the Steelers’ run game, in particular, Najee Harris if Warren is banged up. Remember, hamstrings notoriously nag and unfortunately re-aggravate easily. There’s a good chance Harris acts as a featured back in a run-heavy scheme for chunks of the season at a time.
Harris eclipsed this mark every year since being drafted and I don’t think the streak ends here. Pittsburgh ranked top-5 in rush rate (47.3%) in 2023—which jumped to No. 2 when isolated in goal-to-go situations (68.6).
So why is Harris’ TD total only set at 5.5? I’m not sure—but there’s a chance we’re over this bar before the Week 9 bye.
THE BET: Najee Harris Over 5.5 Rushing TD (-140)
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football
Guillotine Leagues is fantasy football, with a twist or two...
It’s simple:
Create and draft like any league
Each week the lowest-scoring team is eliminated
Their entire roster becomes free agents
An all-out FAAB war ensues
Survive each week and be crowned champion
Guillotine Leagues is completely free to play and since it is points-based, you can start your league at any point during the season.
But why wait? Now is the perfect time to start your first Guillotine League!
Available on both iOS and Android Apps.
The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Can’t Spell Nick Lodolo Without The K
If my normal MLB caps are a cup of coffee, call this one a shot of espresso (a scheduling mishap threw a wrench in my plans).
Ballparks and the environment matter so much for a pitcher, it’s important to split data when their home field is a launch pad. That’s been exactly the case for the Reds’ Nick Lodolo, whose home/away stats couldn’t be more disparate—he's one of the best SPs in the game outside of Great American Small Park:
Home: 6.05 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 12% K-BB
Away: 3.05 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 22% K-BB
Lodolo and the Red Legs face the swing-happy Pirates, who don’t seem to face a pitch they think they can’t hit, no matter where it’s located. Pittsburgh’s approach versus southpaws has stunk over the last month (32% K, 17% SwStrk, 78% Zone-contact) with no signs of slowing down after losing their best hitter against lefties, Andrew McCutchen. Now 14 games out of first, Pittsburgh seems to have started packing it in with eyes on October tee times.
THE BET: Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 K (-138)
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Today is the Rotoworld Football Draft Marathon, and so many of our Fantasy Life friends will be there.
He’s 25-1 to win NFL MVP? Matthew Freedman has plenty of longshots for the upcoming season.
What starters are playing? Geoff Ulrich runs through NFL Preseason Week 3 Picks and Predictions.
Get ready to bet on College Football win totals and Week 0 with Claudia Bellofatto and Thor Nystrom.
FORE! Time to break down the Best Bets for the 2024 BMW Championship.
