In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+
Getting questions lately on balancing responsible bet size while keeping up with the Jones’ on Twitter. Easy answer. In short, who cares? Ignore them—most are dirty, rotten scoundrels anyway.
As far as shame regarding unit size? Do only what’s right for you—there is no minimum too low (I started with $1 MLB bets). Do not be embarrassed or have an ego. Over time, you’ll find honing these skills as important as analysis.
In today’s click-driven social media world, there’s a certain veneer over everything that must be dissolved. Who cares what anyone, especially some anonymous handle, thinks or says? Focus on treating your betting account like a small business. Take care of No. 1 and the rest will work itself out.
(Tell me that wasn’t worth the price of admission)
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Josh Jacobs Jingleheimer Schmidt
If pictures are worth a thousand words, this newsletter’s about to hit new hyper levels of efficiency.
With so much positive feedback on the charts (titles included this time), I‘m not fixing what isn’t broken.
Similar to the Pat Freiermuth prop from last week, risk stays at half mast. There’s still plenty of time to go before Week 1—and being (really, really) excited does not excuse being overleveraged. That in itself is probably a solid lesson for another day, but what matters right now is not digging too deep a hole before getting started.
Channeling one of our first betting building blocks—“overs early, unders late”—Week 1 player props are finally popping up on books. Call me stubborn. Everyone’s different but I’ve found once a player’s line moves a certain amount, I won’t want to wager even if I still like it. Long story long, this line is only moving in one direction so don’t wait.
As the self-proclaimed king of low expectations, I love this Josh Jacobs Week 1 receiving-yard line. To hit it he doesn’t have to be great, he just has to play—and Jacobs possesses true three-down ability featuring massive snap shares (below).
Despite Jordan Love’s seemingly low 16% RB-Target rate, he actually finished inside the top 10 in total attempts to RBs (below left), resulting in some nice production (below right).
Josh Jacobs isn’t LaDainian Tomlinson. With that out of the way, to get 14 yards through the air, you don’t have to be. And Jacobs has always chipped in via the receiving game (below).
With MarShawn Lloyd sidelined, only AJ Dillon is left to compete for targets—something he simply hasn’t proven to excel in (below).
The Pack will be dogs on the road against a prolific Eagle offense—so we may see pedals to the metal from the jump. We could hit this on the first drive. Even if we don’t, it’s live until the very last drive with a chance to hit on a single play against late shell coverages from the two-minute offense.
THE BET: Josh Jacobs Week 1 Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Be on the lookout for more betting product launches as we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, too!
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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Duran, Duran: Hungry Like The Wolf
Tonight the Blue Jays head south from America’s top hat for the friendly confines of Fenway Park to face the Boston Red Sox.
TI contend the year-to-date 3.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP combo is misleading, after outperforming in the luck categories (82% LOB, .255 BABIP). But nature is slowly healing (below).
Nose forever in the spreadsheet, Berrios’ underlying metrics are terrifying (4.97 xERA, 12% K-BB, 42% HH, and .394 xwOBAcon). We need to head where the ball’s going, not where it’s been.
Boston's hit RHP well all year, especially frontman Jarren Duran. His 100 second-half PAs vs. RHP pop off the page and it continues tonight—.341 BA, 1.081 OPS, 12% Barrel, .353 xwOBA, 5 HR. Toronto’s bullpen and its +5 ERA happens to stink as well, so we have an out if we don’t strike early.
Lastly, Duran happens to have very strong BvP stats against Berrios (4-for-11 with a double and 2 HR)—but please don’t tell anyone I’m citing this stuff or I’ll lose street cred.
THE BET: Jarren Duran O1.5 Total Bases (-125)
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