In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
Temperature Check: We wound up tracking the rather obvious drop in offense leaguewide through the entire month of September out of pure frustration. However, it feels like that worm’s turned and business is picking up as of late.
It felt like a good time to circle back for a broad perspective check on the claim’s veracity—and if production has changed, by how much?
Overall: September / October:
- Points Per Game: 21.6 / 24.5
- Plays Per Game: 60.8 / 63.7
- Yards Per Play: 5.3 / 5.6
- Yards Per Game: 322.7 / 355.1
- Drive Success Rate: 37.9% / 40.8%
Passing: September / October
- Pass Rate: 59.7% / 62.0%
- Dropbacks Per Game: 35.7 / 38.8
- EPA Per Attempt: +0.16 / +0.15
- Pass Yards Per Game: 202.8 / 231.1
- Yards Per Attempt: 7.0 / 7.2
- Air Yards Per Target: 7.5 / 7.9
It appears the reports of the NFL’s offensive death have been greatly exaggerated.
We’ll continue to track the stylistic trends as the season goes and you can do the same on our Team Styles tab of the Utilization Report. Here’s to hoping the ball stays in the air for the rest of the season …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Wednesday Charts
- The New York Prop Exchange
Wednesday Charts🧠📊— Team Expected Points Added Per Play
Each week I’ll be presenting the league through the lens of a single image. While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.
It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.
NOTE: The cross is league average. Also, positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance in both phases.
THE GOOD:
DET—Scoring 89 points in two games will boost any team up the ranks but the Lions’ defense should not be ignored. Losing Aidan Hutchinson won’t help that particular cause but I’m not discarding the baby or the bath water—the Lions can simply win in too many ways.
GB—Essentially tied with the Chiefs, I eventually gave GB the nod for roster depth. Frankly, they’ve dealt with enough crucial injuries to cripple some squads yet won games convincingly with the next men up. I feel KC needs to add explosivity to the WR room to leapfrog the Pack down the stretch.
THE BAD:
MIA—Injuries found every critical weakness in the Dolphins’ roster through the first six weeks. I really hope going forward this serves to highlight the importance of a cromulent backup. Feels safe to say without Tua under center to process the mechanics of McDaniels’ vision, the arrow will continue to point straight down for Miami.
CAR—All of a sudden the shot in the arm Andy Dalton gave Carolina’s wore off, looking more like a dead cat bounce every day (pun intended)—there are even calls to bring Bryce Young back. And why not? The Panthers are an unimaginable six points worse per game than the entire field in point differential. Abandon ship.
THE UGLY:
CLE—My goodness gracious. Watching the Browns should come with a graphic content label and a barf bag. The toxicity even found its way to the defense, Cleveland’s now bottom-5 in +20-yard rushes AND +20-yard completions allowed. And now? They’ve traded their WR1.
How do these teams stack up ahead of Week 7? Our NFL Game Betting model has already identified some edges worth attacking!
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🚨 ICYMI: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are reunited. Fallout of the trade.
📈 Risers and fallers ahead of Week 8. Updated college football power rankings.
🏀 Drafting a fantasy basketball team this week? Don’t miss these sleepers.
📊 Week 7 NFL projections are live. An early look at what to expect.
💰 Geoff and Freedman have already loaded the bet tracker for Week 7 … best bets to jump on early.
The Grand Total⚾️🔥 ——Let’s Go, Mets Go!
Tonight’s Game 3 of the 2024 NLCS, as the Trolley Dodgers head west from Hollywood to beautiful Queens, NYC. It’s so difficult trying to find legitimate edges in markets as tight as the MLB playoffs, I was willing to stay holstered. Without any football and the NBA still a week away, it’s essentially the first time all year public markets thrust baseball to the fore.
To my surprise, the algo spit out some value doing my due diligence this morning. Tied at one game a piece, the injury-riddled Dodgers must turn to Walker Buehler and his 5.38 ERA, 1.60 WHIP combo. Unfortunately for the boys in blue, it’s purely out of necessity, now missing an entire quality rotation—Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and River Ryan. I honestly think every single one of those guys would’ve gotten the ball before Buehler tonight.
Why? In a word, it’s a mess for the 30-year-old former first-rounder. All season he’s fallen behind hitters (60% First Strike), failed to induce chases (25%) or whiffs (19%%), while getting squared up (27% Line Drive), and surrendered too many home runs (1.9 HR/9).
Plus, very much like my son, he’s very bad on the road (HA!)—6.53 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, .953 OPS, 3.0 HR/9. Kidding aside, Buehler’s very talented but injuries removed all the bite from his fastball, now down over three miles per hour after seven years (image below) and multiple surgeries.
New York really turned up their offense in the second half, especially at home versus righties. Easily one of the better teams in that spot, the Mets finished top-5 almost no matter how you slice it—OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and Home Runs.
In another life, I would’ve probably bet the Mets to win in this spot. Since becoming a proponent of our patented building block formula TT > ML / ATS (you can read about it here), I’d rather eliminate variables and just play for the runs.
THE BET: NYM Team Total Over 3.5 (-115; DraftKings)
