Geoff Ulrich shares his Thanksgiving Day NFL Betting Cheatsheet, featuring Props, Pick'Em, and Best Bets.

 

Lions -10.0 (-110; bet365) at Bears +10.0 (-110; bet365) 48.5 

I think most people’s first instinct when looking at this line is to pound the Lions at -10.0 at home. Detroit is a beast that has had few hiccups this season and is coming in off another road win where it covered convincingly.  

Chicago has covered in each of their last two games but on the road, the Bears are a disgusting 0-3-1 ATS this season. 

The reason to be wary of the Lions in this spot is the injury report. While the Bears are nearly at full health, the Lions injury report on Tuesday read as follows:

RB David Montgomery (shoulder)—(will likely play, but missed most of last week’s game)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee)—new injury, severity unknown

WR Kalif Raymond (foot)—doubtful

LT Taylor Decker (knee, ankle)—Injured in Week 12

DT DJ Reader (illness)—unknown severity

CB Carlton Davis (hand, knee)—Injured in Week 12

Our Game Model is showing some value on the Lions at -10.0 but until we get more information about the injuries in Detroit the spread will be a pass for me. 

Chicago has also been a solid under team all season, and enter this game 7-4 to the under on the season. It's also a perfect 4-0 at hitting unders this year on the road. With a couple of the Lions' big offensive stars banged up, I also think we could see a slightly less-efficient game than usual from the Lions' offense. 

The game model has this total projected at 47.0 and I like playing the under down to 48.0 (-110) in this spot. 

Game prop

Longest Field Goal over 46.5 yards (-110; bet365)

We have two of the best FG kickers in the league going at each other in this game, and we’re in a dome. It’s kicker Thunderdome!

Jake Bates is now 8-for-8 from 40+ yards and 5-for-5 from 50+, while Bears’ kicker Cairo Santos is 7-for-8 from 50+ yards and has hit a FG of 49+ in three of his last four games. 

I think this one is a yard or two too low given the kickers we have in play. May the best leg win. 

Player Props 

Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD (-163; bet365)

I mentioned Gibbs’ Anytime TD prop yesterday in our early-week DFS and betting preview and placed it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker. 

“I know this line seems short but it’s nowhere near short enough. I do expect David Montgomery to play but even with the injury he endured last week, his anytime TD odds are far shorter than Gibbs’ at 365, so there is no injury discount baked into Montgomery’s line. 

For the season, Gibbs has also now scored 11 TDs and has scored at least one TD in eight of 11 starts. Last year, after returning from injury in Week 7, he scored 11 times in his final 11 regular-season starts and also scored in eight of 11 starts. For his last 22 regular-season games he’s now scored at least one TD in 16 games (72% hit rate). 

At -163 the implied probability we’re getting for a Gibbs score this week (against a poor Bears rush defense) is around 62%, making his current anytime odds look like a decent value.”

With his line still available under -180, Gibbs is still a decent value in the anytime TD market. 

Ladder Bet: Rome Odunze Receiving Yards

  • 70+ (+300; bet365)
  • 80+ (+450; bet365)
  • 80+ and a TD (+850; bet365)
  • 90+ (+650; bet365)

Odunze and DJ Moore have had a bit of a yin and yang thing going, where one of them disappears for a game or two, while the other one takes off. 

Last week it was Moore’s turn to explode, as the veteran went for 107 yards on 7 receptions. Thanks to that performance, there is now a big disparity in their lines this week with Odunze’s regular yardage prop set at 43.5 and Moore’s set at 52.5. It’s also created some value on Odunze’s alternative lines as we can get him to go for 90+ yards (something he’s done twice already this season) at +650. 

Moore has been doing most of his work after the catch, while Odunze has been targeted downfield with much more regularity and leads the team with a 34% air yards share, via our Utilization Report. 

 

 

That’s significant because as much as DJ Moore is one of the best after-the-catch receivers in the league, I’d still rather trust the guy getting targeted downfield more often, especially if the target shares are equal (which they have been of late). 

Pick’Em Card (Underdog 3-way, 7.92x multiplier)

I haven’t locked in a Tim Patrick bet, but I do think his yardage total may be a tad too low this week. He’s essentially become the locked-in WR3 in this offense and played on 56 snaps just two games ago against Jacksonville. 

With Kalif Raymond likely out and St. Brown's status unknown, it’s not outlandish to think we see Patrick (who has been a solid downfield target earner in the past) get more primary targets on a short week. 

I mentieond Odunze’s alternate lines above and bumping Caleb Williams up to 229.5 in this spot felt like a natural move given we’re expecting one of his best WRs to overperform. Seven of the 11 teams that have faced the Lions this season have gone over this total and with how efficient their offense can be it’s quite possible we’ll see Williams dropping back against lots of prevent defenses late trying to keep this score respectable. 

Cowboys -3.5 (-110; bet365) vs. Giants +3.5 (-110; bet365) 37.5 

This spread in this game has moved between 3.5 to 4.0 at the beginning of the week. It looks like we’re getting Cooper Rush at QB for the Cowboys, and it's unknown if Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock are starting for the Giants in this game. Rush is on the injury report, too.

The Cowboys have a long list of injury concerns outside of Rush. 

Zack Martin G Questionable 

Trevon Diggs CB Questionable 

Asim Richards OT Questionable 

Tyler Smith G Questionable 

Jake Ferguson TE Questionable 

CeeDee Lamb WR Questionable 

DaRon Bland CB  Questionable 

Eric Kendricks MLB  Questionable

Marshawn Kneeland DE Questionable 

Cooper Rush QB  Questionable 

Nick Vigil OLB Questionable 

Kendricks, Martin, and Ferguson all look highly questionable to play and would be big losses. Getting Diggs and Bland on the field together would be helpful for the Dallas secondary, but they have both been working back from injury and will be up against Malik Nabers in a tough matchup. 

Our game model has the total set around 38.0 this week, so there is not much edge in either direction, although I would lean over myself at 37.5 (-110). 

With all of the injuries to the Cowboys, the Giants do have a little intrigue for me on the spread/moneyline. Matthew Freedman took the Giants on the moneyline in a lookahead line in our free NFL bet tracker and our game model shows significant value on them with the Giants ML now as big as +165 on bet365. 

I may make a small wager on New York but understand if you’d rather not tail me or Freedman on that one.  

Player Props 

There is so much uncertainty with both of these offenses that it is hard to be super bullish on any props for this game. I mentioned Malik Nabers’ yardage prop at 52.5 in our early week DFS and betting preview yesterday (and placed an over bet in our Free bet tracker), but his line has now moved significantly up to the 58.5 range. 

I’d still feel OK about playing Nabers’ over at under 60 yards, but obviously a lot of that early line value has disappeared. 

Tyrone Tracy over 14.5 carries (+102; FanDuel)

We have two lower-tier teams going at it, so the chances of one of them getting too far behind doesn’t seem overly high. 

Tracy’s carries dried up last week, but that was because the Giants found themselves in too deep a hole to keep giving their star rookie the rock. Before last week’s game, Tracy had taken 16+ carries in three straight games, so this 14.5 line does feel like somewhat of an overreaction, especially when we consider the Cowboys are dead last EPA per rush on defense. 

As much as I think that the opening line on Nabers was too low, I also think this carry line on Tracy is potentially a small overreaction to one bad game as well. Add in one bad throwing arm to the Giants' projected starting QB and you could certainly see Tracy get leaned on heavily in this spot, especially if he has success early on. 

Pick’Em Card (Underdog 2-way, 5.46x multiplier)

I like the way these two alternate lines correlate. Dowdle is a good receiving back and the Cowboys are likely to be throwing more if Tracy is running all over the yard vs. them. 

The Giants linebackers are also terrible tacklers and have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season, so Dowdle—who scored a 15-yard receiving TD vs. New York in Week 6—could get us the Higher on one play. 

 

Packers -3.0 (-120; bet365) vs. Dolphins +3.0 (+100; bet365) 47.0 

I bet this game on the early line when it was still Packers -2.5 and put it in our free NFL Bet Tracker. When Tua Tagovailoa has been on the road against good teams he’s been very beatable. Via the Action Network, Tagovailoa is now just 5-11 SU on the road vs. teams with a win percentage of 50% or higher. 

This is also a spot where we have a clear warm-weather team in Miami, traveling to a cold -eather outdoor game in Green Bay. The temperature is expected to be around 30 degrees and potentially include snow showers during the game. 

It’s Packers weather and I’d still feel good about playing them at -3.0, even if you have to pay a little juice. 

Props

Tucker Kraft Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

  • 50+ yards (+265; bet365)
  • 50+ yards and a TD (+575; bet365)
  • 60+ yards (+450; bet365)

I wrote about Kraft in our Free Betting Life Newsletter on Tuesday. It’s a play I still feel good about especially with Romeo Doubs already confirmed to be out. 

"When you look at the Dolphins’ pass defense from a stat perspective it’s clear they are still a pretty tight unit. They’ve allowed just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season (6th best in the league) and are 12th in EPA per dropback…

"However, as good as Miami has been against the deep ball, they can and have struggled against athletic TEs. As a group that tends to run a lot of Cover 3 on defense, they often leave the middle of the field open or exposed and have been vulnerable to big catch-and-run plays by efficient after-the-catch TEs.

"As evidenced by the fact he’s recorded 50+ yards in six of his last 16 regular-season games, Kraft is a great receiver when he gets the ball in his hands and is able to turn upfield. He’s tied for first in the league (yes first) with Jameson Williams at 9.9 YAC per reception and is fifth in the league in YAC over expected (xYAC/r).

"You could argue that his recent usage is somewhat concerning, as he posted just a 6% target share vs. the Bears and a 9% target share vs. the 49ers. However, with Romeo Doubs (concussion) likely out vs. the Dolphins, the plan for Green Bay on offense this week should involve getting Kraft in space early and often and letting him cook vs. this Dolphins’ secondary.

"I already entered Kraft’s over in our Free NFL Bet Tracker yesterday and would play the over on his standard line up to 32.5. However, this is also a great spot to play some of his alternate lines. He’s proven he’s a player who doesn’t need a ton of volume to get to 50+ yards in a game, having already accomplished that feat three times in 2024, and twice doing so on 4 or fewer catches.”

 

Pick’Em Card (Underdog 3-way, 7.01x multiplier)

With cold weather and wind, I did think about fading the Dolphins receivers in this spot, but on Underdog we can play target props and the 5.0 total we are getting on Achane immediately stood out. 

Achane is sitting right around 5.5 targets this week in our site projections and has averaged 5.8 targets over his last five games. With cool weather and a close game projected, it’s not hard to see him hitting his ceiling as a receiver and potentially even pushing for 8-9 targets in this spot. 

I discussed Kraft above and the inverse play to him hitting his higher on yards is that one of the Packers' other receivers likely has a slow day. Watson is projected right around 3.0 receptions in our projections and with how good the Dolphins corners have been at shutting down explosive plays (and the wind and cold weather) I do think Watson may be in for a slow game, usage-wise. 

 

Thanksgiving Day Recap

Bears-Lions Under 48.5

Bears-Lions Longest FG over 46.5 

Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD 

Rome Odunze receiving yard ladder (70+/80+/80+TD/90+)

Tyrone Tracy over 14.5 carries

Tucker Kraft over 30.5 yards

Packers -3.0 

 

Lions-Bears Underdog (3-way, 7.92x multiplier)

Tim Patrick Higher 22.5 receiving yards

Caleb Williams Higher 229.5 passing yards

Rome Odunze Higher 59.5 receiving yards 

 

Giants-Cowboys Underdog (2-way, 5.46x multiplier)

Tyrone Tracy Higher 79.5 rush yards

Rico Dowdle Higher 19.5 receiving yards 

 

Dolphins-Packers Underdog (3-way, 7.01x multiplier)

Christian Watson Lower 3.5 receptions 

Tucker Kraft Higher 39.5 receiving yards 

De’Von Achane Higher 5.0 targets