We have the traditional three-game slate for Thanksgiving Day on tap once again this season, which makes this Thursday one of the best betting and fantasy days of the entire season. 

On top of having a full list of player and TD props to choose from, we also have a ton of big daily fantasy (DFS) contests on sites like DraftKings, which is offering a $2.5 million guaranteed contest for the three-game slate with an entry fee of $5 and a first prize of $1 million. 

Side Note: Our player projections are great for identifying potentially undervalued players for DFS and betting so make sure you check those out. 

Today, I’m going to a quick game-by-game preview of the top DFS options and early bets I have for each game. 

Then, on Wednesday, I’ll do a full overview of bets I’ve made, my favorite pick’em cards and any parlays you might to look at for Thanksgiving. 

Keep checking out our Free NFL Bet Tracker and our Free Pick’em Tracker over the holidays. We already have a few Thanksgiving Day bets in there and will be adding them as kickoff gets closer. 

Chicago Bears (+10.5) at Detroit Lions

This game has a 10.5 spread, with the Lions set as -10.5 home favorites. The total is 48.5 and the Lions have a 29.5 implied team total, which is the largest on the slate by far. That’s likely going to make the Lions' skill players very highly owned and some of the Bears players extremely low-owned. 

It’s important to remember in these massive Milly Maker contests how important game theory is. Getting a low-owned player who produces a massive day can make or break your chances at scoring a top finish.

So while getting some exposure to the Lions is a must, Bears skill players may make for better DFS plays in many instances. 

Lions vs. Bears DFS Breakdown

Keenan Allen ($5,100; DraftKings): Allen posted a 35% target share in his last outing and leads the Bears with a 27% target share on the season. Unfortunately, his low price will make him a favorite target this week among the Bears receivers, especially with the Bears set as massive underdogs and likely to be in a positive game script. 

I like Allen, but take into account he may be the highest-owned Bears receiver and just as popular as some of the Lions' skill players. 

Rome Odunze ($5,000): Odunze has seen 10 targets in each of his last two games, so it’s possible that both he and Allen split ownership and cannibalize each other to a degree. Either way, in contests like the Milly Maker, I’d prefer Odunze slightly to Allen. He should have lower ownership, and his ability to “get there” and provide a 4x or better return on just a couple of targets is far better than Allen, who rarely makes big plays of more than 15 yards. 

Caleb Williams ($5,300): This is a really weak three-game slate for QBs (some bad weather in Green Bay is part of the issue). So if you are playing one or two Bears receivers, I think using Williams — who does have plenty of rushing upside — is a perfectly good way to get good correlation in this spot. 

David Montgomery ($6,500; DraftKings): Montgomery left last week’s game against the Colts early with a shoulder injury. He didn’t return to that game, but the move was precautionary and he already told reporters that he’ll be playing on Thanksgiving. The Bears' rush defense has also cratered as the season has gone on. They’ve now allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs to opposing RBs this season. The “Q” tag on Montgomery will also likely mean Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500) gets extra attention this week while Montgomery loses ownership. 

You could think about using both Lions RBs, and that’s a viable strategy in this spot, but Montgomery is likely the better play for larger-field tournaments. I’d anticipate Gibbs’ popularity will be far greater than Montgomery, making him the better game theory play in this spot. 

Lions DST ($3,500; DraftKings): The Lions DST will be popular for good reason. Caleb Williams has been sacked an average of five times per game over his last three starts. DST is a very volatile position, and Detroit will be popular, but getting some exposure to this DST at home is likely prudent. I wouldn’t want to be overweight on the Lions DST necessarily, but going field average or just below it for the entirety of your lineups would be a solid goal. 

Lions vs. Bears Betting Breakdown

This is a gross spot for the Bears. They played in OT last week and endured their second heartbreaking loss in a row. Chicago can’t stop the run, and the Lions are second in EPA and success rate per rush. The Bears have the weapons at WR to hurt the Lions but can’t protect their QB. 

I’m a little surprised this line hasn’t moved more toward the Lions, but it probably will before kickoff. 

Props

Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD (-163; bet365)

I know this line seems short, but it’s nowhere near short enough. I do expect David Montgomery to play, but even with the injury he endured last week, his anytime TD odds are far shorter than Gibbs’ at bet365, so there is no injury discount baked into Montgomery’s line. 

For the season, Gibbs has 11 total TDs and has scored at least one TD in eight of 11 starts. Last year, after returning from injury in Week 7, he scored 11 times in his final 11 regular season starts and also scored in eight of 11 starts. For his last 22 regular season games, he’s now scored at least one TD in 16 games (72% hit rate). 

At -163, the implied probability we’re getting for a Gibbs score this week (against a poor Bears rush defense) is around 62%, making his current anytime odds look like a decent value. 

New York Giants (+4.0) at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are favored by 4.0 points at home, with a game total of 39.0. The spread has moved toward Dallas after the Giants' terrible performance last week, so expect most of the Giants players to be lower-owned — and potentially extremely low-owned in spots. 

Cowboys vs. Giants DFS Breakdown

Malik Nabers ($7,100): Nabers expressed some frustration after last week’s loss after not getting the ball until the game was out of reach. He did end the game with six receptions on nine targets, so it’s not like he wasn’t involved. 

Either way, whoever starts at QB for the Giants should have a mandate to get him the ball early. The Cowboys have also had injury issues in the secondary all season and could be without Trevon Diggs (knee) again. Whoever covers Nabers will either be working their way back from injury (Bland, Diggs) or a backup corner. So while the QB questions remain for New York, this is a plus matchup for the rookie. I view Nabers as a great contrarian pay-up candidate for bigger DFS contests. 

Tyrone Tracy ($5,800): Tracy is the other Giant with big-field GPP appeal. The Cowboys' defense is one of the worst in the league against the run, ranking 32nd in EPA per rush. Tracy only got nine carries last week but saw heavier involvement in the passing game with four targets, so the Giants remained committed to getting him the ball regardless of the score. If New York surprises and makes a game of this, Tracy could approach 20+ carries against a bad rush defense, which could allow him to push for the top spot among RBs on this slate. 

Rico Dowdle ($5,500): Dowdle is the best RB on the Dallas roster and had a nice bounceback week against a poor rush defense in Washington, producing 86 yards (4.5 YPC) on 19 carries. The Cowboys' o-line is banged up but may get Zach Martin back for this game, which would be a boost. Either way, the Giants allowed three rushing TDs last week and have been awful at stopping the run all year. 

There are so many good RBs on this slate that Dowdle is far from a must play, but if you are paying up at WR, he is a name you almost have to get exposure to. He’s also a good leverage play in some respects against CeeDee Lamb lineups, a player I expect to have some of the highest ownership on the slate thanks mainly to the uncertainty around target shares for WRs on teams like the Dolphins and Packers. 

Cowboys vs. Giants Betting Breakdown

This line has moved from -3.5 to -4.0 in favor of the Cowboys. I can’t say I’m overly shocked after the Giants bellyflopped at home in Tommy DeVito’s season debut. The QB is also questionable for this Thursday after being sacked four times, so there is a small chance we even see a move to Drew Lock, which is probably a small upgrade just from an experience angle. 

I will say that the total in this game looks suspiciously low. The Giants have allowed 26+ points in four of their last five games, while the Cowboys have allowed an average of 30.2 points over their last five. Obviously, these offenses aren’t super trustworthy, but we have multiple star players who should be happy to rack up stats. 

I’m going to wait until Wednesday, as I think this total could drop a little more, but over 37.5 points is a play that is on my radar as of this writing.

Props

Malik Nabers Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365) 

Sheesh. Nabers’ receiving total is down to 52.5 yards this week. That’s five yards lower than it opened last week (57.5) AFTER he crushed the over on that total with six receptions and 64 yards. 

I know there are reasons to be cautious, but the Cowboys defense has one cornerback who is still making his way back from a serious injury in Daron Bland, and another in Trevon Diggs (knee) who had to sit out last week due to injury. I’d play this up to 54.5 and expect it will rise as the week goes on. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.0) at Green Bay Packers

The line sits at 3.0 in favor of the Packers, who are coming off a big win over the 49ers. A month ago, they likely would have been bigger favorites against Miami, but the Dolphins have been impressive over their last few games and enter Thanksgiving on a three-game winning streak. 

The Dolphins have historically been great at beating up on weaker teams, so the fact they pummeled the Patriots doesn’t necessarily get them an upgrade in my eyes. Although you can’t discount how big having Tua Tagovailoa healthy is for this team. 

Packers vs. Dolphins DFS Breakdown 

Jonnu Smith ($4,300): Jonnu Smith, TE1 and WR1 for Miami? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. He took a 28% target share last week and has a target share of 21% or better in three of his last four starts. Overall, he’s caught 15 passes and scored three times over his last two games. The Packers have been vulnerable to good after-the-catch TEs, allowing Trey McBride and George Kittle to each post 80+ yards in recent weeks. Smith will be popular, but if you want to mix things up, consider using him as a flex option in two-TE builds to make your lineups unique.

Jordan Love ($6,300): QB is a weak position on this slate, and with Love throwing just three TDs over his last four starts he’s not likely to draw a ton of interest. Stacking the Packers QB with the correct receivers is not easy given how much they spread the ball, but if you can fall on the correct combination you will likely have a great shot at gaining leverage as Josh Jacobs expects to be heavily owned coming off a three-TD game. 

Jayden Reed ($5,700): A snow game with cold weather and some wind thrown in might be the perfect time for the Packers to get Jayden Reed more involved. He hasn’t seen much red zone usage of late after his hot start, but with Romeo Doubs likely to miss this game the target share for the Packers should be more condensed. 

Tucker Kraft ($3,700): I like Kraft almost as much as Smith in this matchup. The Dolphins play a lot of Cover-3 on defense, which tends to leave the short, over the middle option open — a good thing for after-the-catch TEs. They’ve allowed an insane 23 catches to TEs over their past two games alone. Kraft has become a bit of a favorite target for Jordan Love in the red zone and is up to six TDs on the season. I could see him outscoring the more popular Smith this week, but using both men in a lineup might be the best way to attack this game. 

Packers vs. Dolphins Betting Breakdown

I bet this game on the early line when it was still Packers -2.5 and put it in our free NFL Bet Tracker. Tua Tagovailoa has been very beatable on the road against good teams. Via the Action Network, Tagovailoa is now just 5-11 SU on the road vs. teams .500 or better.

This is also a spot where we have a clear warm weather team in Miami traveling to a cold weather outdoor game in Green Bay. The temperature is expected to be around 30 degrees and with potential snow showers during the game. 

It’s Packers weather, and I’d still feel good about playing them at -3.0, even if you have to pay a little juice. 

Props

Tucker Kraft Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

  • 50+ yards (+265; bet365)
  • 60+ yards (+450; bet365)

I talked about Kraft already, but the over on this line looks playable to me up to 33.5. I also took some alternate line action on Kraft just because I believe the Dolphins are a terrific matchup for him. 

I already dropped this Kraft prop along with my other early-week plays in our NFL bet tracker. 

As always, make sure you check our NFL projections for Thanksgiving before making your prop bets. I’ll be using those to identify any further bets for Thursday before kickoff 

I’ll be back with more props, pick’em cards, and a Thanksgiving Day parlay or two on Wednesday.