In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
I love the holidays! Thanksgiving is easily a top-3 day on the calendar every year. All the best things in life rolled into one, where the letter of the day is F. Family, food, foliage, feasting, festivities, and most importantly … football. We have a ton to cover, so I’ll be brief …
I know I can speak for everyone here at Betting Life—and all of Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life—when I say we are most thankful for you, the reader. Spending your precious time with us means a lot and continues to drive the entire team daily.
Wait, how could I almost forget my favorite F-word? No, no that one ... the other one. Let’s have some f-f-f-fun.
Thanksgiving Day Antipasto, Bears (4-7) at Lions (10-1): For the realest Americans, sometimes the goal of Thanksgiving is just to have room left when the turkey comes out. An appetizer course may be the meal before the meal but no less important. It sets the mood and the tempo for the day to come. If that’s the case, leave your belts at home. Take the sweatpants instead. Sure, the Bears’ current five-game losing streak since the bye wrecked any postseason hopes. That said, it’s a young team with a bright future that will play tough. And they’re improving. It’s just a matter of getting both phases to play well simultaneously. In an attempt to jumpstart an anemic offense, Chicago finally moved on from Shane Waldron’s coordinating abilities for Thomas Brown. The result? Actually managing multiple offensive touchdowns in two straight. The move toward more 3-WR sets should continue to help Caleb Williams. Frankly, it shouldn’t have been considered 4-D chess to swap out Gerald Everett’s routes for more of last year’s ninth overall pick, Rome Odunze. Anyway, we know Chicago’s going to have its paws full with the league’s best team—I’m just expecting more of a fight than the ten-point spread implies. LEAN: CHI +10
Thanksgiving Day Entree, Giants (2-9) at Cowboys (4-7): Can you believe I’ve actually heard people complaining about this Giants/Cowboys tilt? The nerve! They couldn’t be more misguided. In fact, we all owe the schedule makers a debt of gratitude. When else were we supposed to pay attention to our families, use the bathroom, AND catch a quick nap on the couch? It’s as if no one focuses on the long game anymore. Darn kids. Jokes aside, I’m not really kidding. These teams are shells of themselves with eyes on next season already. I didn’t get to check the historicals or anything, but the 37-point total says it all. You’ll be hard-pressed to find another NFL game with a total that low being played indoors. The Cowboys at least look halfway functional—making them an order of magnitude more capable than the Tommy DeVito-led Giants. As far as betting goes I’m in a holding pattern. If I knew Tommy Cutlets (forearm) was definitely playing, I’d love Dallas by a TD easily—but if we get Drew Lock under center, I’m sprinting to smash the over. LEAN: WAIT AND SEE
Thanksgiving Day Dessert, Dolphins (5-6) at Packers (8-3): Who else remembers when we had to actually pay attention to our in-laws after dinner? That’s right zoomers, dessert didn’t always come with the meal. And it’s going to be especially sweet waking up refreshed after snoring through the Cowboys-Giants. The NFL is a league of attrition, we know this—the best-laid plans are reduced to ruin without warning or possible repair. Unlike so many other teams, both the Dolphins and Packers enter Turkey Day healthy and trending positively. I’d even go so far as to argue both teams are better than their records. We’re talking about two of only seven teams with positive marks in EPA in both offense and defense this month. However, I’d be remiss not to mention the stark difference in win/loss records is the way their respective front offices handled the backup QB position. We know some QB2s will stink, that’s par for the course. That said, playing three different backups in a two-week span without injuries borders on malpractice. Sorry Mike McDaniel. I love you, but be better. So stoked to see how the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa fare in the frozen tundra. They’ll try to extend their three-game win streak, backs against the wall again. Miami’s on the AFC playoff bubble but sit two full games out and have to find a way to win. I like the Pack but the hook scares me. LEAN: GB ML
Happy Thanksgiving from everyone at the Betting Life newsletter! We're so grateful to have you as a faithful reader. Catch me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Total Recall: NFL Week 13 Team Totals
- Thanksgiving Props: Laghezza’s Longshot Menu
- Thanksgiving Ranks, Rants, and Recipes
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🥧 Don’t miss the Thanksgiving NFL preview for best bets, props, and fantasy football advice. Save room for pie.
🦃 Want some DFS action to go with your turkey and stuffing? Here’s Pete’s Thanksgiving DFS primer.
👀 If you want to gobble up Cowboys-Giants while you’re having dinner, Freedman dishes out the game model and best bets.
🔮 Can’t get enough of props and bets for the Thanksgiving tripleheader? Geoff has a few that are pretty appetizing.
🏈 If you want to peek ahead to some big rivalries on Saturday, Claudia and Thor bring it with the CFB Week 14 Best Bets to enjoy with leftovers.
Total Recall—NFL Week 13 Team Totals
Holiday or not, Wednesday still marks square one for serious bettors to set their foundation for the NFL betting week ahead. My favorite place to start that grind comes directly from the books themselves. Remember, the house can’t help but tip its hand by posting live lines.
For whatever reason, team totals can be impossible to wrangle in one spot. I couldn’t let you down. In my never-ending quest to make this newsletter an irreplaceable part of your daily routine, as always I charted all the baseline (-110) NFL team totals with this weekend’s opponents.
Allow me to do the dirty work and highlight outliers so you won’t have to.
Takeaways: Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Buffalo play at home, topping the board with at least 26-point implied totals. New York, Cleveland, and Las Vegas pull up the caboose on the road, a full point and a half behind the field. Nature is healing.
There’s a lot to like about the Lions offense, no doubt. But 30 points against the Bears feels rich—it just happened for the first time all season last week. Nice to see the Chiefs finally post a team total to match their record. Hard to believe KC’s 10-1 yet still improving weekly. Remember, the Raiders turn to AOC, Aidan O’Connell this Sunday under center. He’s got a negative career EPA/dropback so a big part of that line implies a turnover or three and short-field situations.
The flipside of that game finds the Raiders at the very bottom, with reason. Not only should Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill straight-up smoosh Vegas’ offense, Patrick Mahomes’ efficiency keeps the opposition watching the majority of the game from the sidelines. It’s nonstop dinks, dunks, and first downs.
Now, the hapless Giants. What a bunch of turkeys. Simply put, Big Blue managed 7 whole points with a healthy DeVito calling signals. What would you realistically expect if he’s limited? It’s crazy to think the Giants haven’t started cult legend Drew Lock because he might mess up and win games. And lastly, seventeen points for the Browns feels light, even if the Broncos’ D scares you a little. Nick Chubb’s looking better every week, Miles Garrett’s a monster, and Cleveland’s shown to have explosivity in the pass game.
Thanksgiving Props🍗🏈—Laghezza’s Longshot Menu
I’m taking a break from the usual overly serious grind for some low-risk Turkey Day props on DraftKings. The operative term here is low risk. Be responsible. For reference, I generally bet around one-tenth of a unit on this kind of stuff to keep it interesting.
Roschon Johnson 2 TD (+2000): Johnson’s the clear goal-line back since the coordinator switch in Chicago. Can we get a couple of penalty calls in the end zone? At 20-1, I’m willing to find out.
NYG/DAL Highest-Scoring Game (+600): Yes, the Giants and Cowboys are the two worst offenses playing today— but they’re also the worst defenses. With only three games on the schedule and a chance at Drew Lock for NYG, the price is right.
All Six Teams Score +1 Rushing TD (+1200): Going to take a bit of luck, but stranger things have happened. Players break long runs, get tackled at the 1 or commit penalties in the end zone all the time. Feeling froggy? Jump.
Cooper Rush, Most Thanksgiving Passing Yards (+750): Need a few things to go right for us to cash here. CeeDee Lamb on a fast track against a mediocre secondary being prime among them. Crazier things have happened—Rush did throw for 354 against Houston two weeks ago.
De'Von Achane, Most Thanksgiving Rushing Yards (+750): Achane dominates the Dolphins’ carry share in tightly contested games and has yet to break off that long home run. I know it’s in there somewhere. And he’s such a freak, he can do it against anyone. Honestly surprised to see Achane listed as the longest shot among the holiday starters.
WANT TO FIND MORE WEEK 13 PLAYER PROJECTIONS?
Thanksgiving Ranks📊, Rants😤, and Recipes🍗
For starters, it kills me to hear people say they’ve never had a delicious turkey. When done properly, you can eat it cold out of the fridge the next day without sending your mouth to the Sahara. Yes, it’s true. End the anti-turkey propaganda now. And since I live to help my fellow man and woman, allow me to share my very own recipe.
Sides That Get You Automatically Uninvited Next Thanksgiving:
- Green Bean Casserole
- Sweet Mayo Deli Macaroni Salad
- Canned Potatoes
- Any Store-Bought Cornbread
And while I will allow the classic can-shaped cranberry sauce at the table for traditional and comedic effect, it’s gelatinous and disgusting. It’s also apparently ribbed for our pleasure. Anyway, please stop. Fresh cranberry sauce is cheap, quick, and ridiculously good. Just boil slowly with some simple syrup (sugar water) until they burst. And if you really want to level up, use fresh-squeezed orange juice instead. The combination of sweet and tangy will raise your crazy uncle’s overgrown eyebrows, I promise.
WE APPRECIATE YOU! BE THANKFUL AND BE WELL! A HAPPY AND HEALTHY HOLIDAY TO YOU AND YOURS FROM ALL OF US!
