In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Happy NFL postseason to all who celebrate! Today, we wrap up our granular looks at the opening postseason slate with the Commanders vs. Buccaneers nightcap. If you happened to miss Thursday’s edition, write-ups on Broncos vs. Bills and Packers vs. Eagles are still available on Fantasy Life.
Deep Breath Before The Plunge …
This is it, people—time to separate the wheat from the chaff. The moment we’ve all been waiting for. No more practices or prognostications—it’s the real deal, Holyfield.
Win or go home. Lose, and tell your story walking …
Remember, we have you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life throughout the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL draft.
My customary reminder—Head over to our Odds page to compare the prices around the books for this weekend's games, then use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Playoffs: Sunday Wild Card Blitz, Part Deux
- The New York Prop Exchange: Meet Me At Bucky’s
- Sharp Report: More Bucs propaganda (sorry, not sorry)
Time’s Running Out!
Registration for CHOPionships ends TODAY!*
Learn more about the best NEW way to play NFL Playoff Fantasy Football.
Registration for the CHOPionship is open, but the available player pool will not include players from yesterday's games, even if other Guillotine League players in the contest could have locked players from those games previously.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Longshot parlays, anyone? There’s still some action for the rest of the weekend.
🤑 Model picks for today’s games … a five-star edge on the Bucs?
✍️ Speaking of the Bucs game … everything you need to know for the Sunday Night showdown. (JOE TO ADD FREEDMAN’S GAME PREVIEW HERE)
🚨 ICYMI: Dive into five ideal landing spots for the incoming QB class.
🎲 Deion Sanders to Vegas? The rumors are heating up.
NFL Playoffs🏈💥—Sunday Wild Card Blitz, Part Deux
#6 Commanders (12-5) at #3 Buccaneers (10-7)
Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines. After writing about nothing but low game totals and defensive advantages all week, it’s high time for a change ... or is it? Rookie phenom Jayden Daniels leads the 12-win Commanders (wow) on the road to sunny Florida to face the Buccos and Baker Mayfield. Regardless of how this shakes out when the dust settles, barring extenuating circumstances, we could easily be looking at legitimate competitive windows opening for both teams—a massive amount of credit due all around.
Everyone’s expecting lots of offense so why not give the people what they want? Washington’s not trying to trick anyone when they have the ball. It’s a one-two combination as old as leather helmets themselves—hit the opposition with a versatile ground attack in order to set up play-action passes down the field. Daniels’ ability to remain accurate on the move keeps the secondary honest while his dual-threat skillset adds another wrinkle to their attack. That forced hesitation from defenders makes the Commanders’ rush game more effective, vaulting all their underpinning offensive efficiency metrics to the moon:
- 35.9 Average Drive Distance: 5th
- 2.2 First Downs Per Drive: T-2nd
- 2.7 Points Per Drive: 4th
- 50.0% Scoring Drive Success: 2nd
- +0.20 Third Down EPA/Play: 5th
Yet therein lies the rub and with it, the most obvious point of failure for the Commodores today—Tampa’s sending their immovable object to counter Washington’s unstoppable force.
TB earned the label as an elite run-stopping unit over the last few years, led by the human megalith Vita Vea—and this second-half run going back to Week 10 might be the best collectively played stretch as a unit since. Besides returning starters to the secondary and leading the NFL in both blitz and pressure rates, this interior line‘s proved impenetrable …
- +0.25 Defensive EPA/Rush: 2nd
- 32.8% Opposing Rush Success Rate: 2nd
- 60.8 Rushing Yards Per Game: 1st
- 3.2 Yards Per Rush: 1st
- 0.64 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: 2nd
- 1 +20-Yard Carry Allowed: T-1st
- 4.6% Explosive Rush Rate: 1st
If Washington’s unable to set a proper foundation by establishing the ground game, it’s on Dan Quinn’s defense to stop a white-hot Mayfield from baking—no small feat. Despite losing star wideout Chris Godwin back in Week 7, the Bucs continued to flash on offense, posting a litany of elite metrics throughout both phases:
- 399.6 Yards Per Game: 3rd
- 6.2 Yards Per Play: T-2nd
- 51.6% Offensive Success Rate: 2nd
- 37.1 Average Drive Distance: 3rd
- 2.2 First Downs Per Drive: T-2nd
- 5.3 Yards Per Rush: T-2nd
- 3.67 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 1st
- 250.4 Passing Yards Per Game: 3rd
- 26.0% Pressure Rate Allowed: 1st
- 13.2% Explosive Play Rate: T-3rd
- 50.9% Third Down Conversion Rate: 1st
This newsletter rode pretty hard for the Bucs, even when it looked like Atlanta might leapfrog them and I’m not quitting now. Even if you’re not buying a total shutdown from Tampa on defense (understandable), I can’t see the Commanders stopping Baker’s boys for 60 minutes with the way they’ve played down the stretch, hair on fire.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Meet Me At Bucky’s
THE BET: Bucky Irving O87.5 Rushing Yards (-112; FanDuel)
If you noticed, just one unit in tonight’s game remained unmentioned in the Blitz write-up—but for all the wrong reasons. For me, Washington’s inability to stop the run will be the differentiating factor. The Commanders tackle poorly at times while their elevated blitz rate allowed RBs to get behind them all season …
- -0.01 Defensive EPA/Rush: 27th
- 57.6% Opposing Rush Success Rate: 27th
- 137.5 Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 30th
- 4.8 Yards Allowed Per Carry: T-30th
- 1.93 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: 29th
Then there’s the actual opposition. For starters, Tampa’s fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving runs at defenses like they owed him money. Add in superior vision plus quickness of cuts and you get the next big breakout RB. Of the 32 running backs with 60-plus touches since Tampa’s backfield flippening during the Week 11 bye, the former Oregon Duck rates among the very best …
- 5.7 Yards Per Carry: 4th
- 1.32 Yards Over Expectation Per Rush: 3rd
- 4.24 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 2nd
- +0.15 EPA Per Rush: 2nd
- 5 +20-Yard Rushes: 4th
Come crunch time I fully expect coaches to put their best foot forward and Todd Bowles seems to have understood that part of the assignment, evidenced in Irving’s slow domination of rush share (image below). Regardless of the game script, we should be witnessing a heavy dose of Irving, early and often—even if it serves to keep Jayden Daniels off the field.
HOW DOES IRVING PROJECT TONIGHT?
I hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life Newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing from you!
The Sharps Are On The Same Page …
Two down. Four to go.
Three of those four remaining Wild Card Weekend games are scheduled for Sunday.
Here we go.
Lots of action for our sharps at Sharp Hunter to keep track of.
Thankfully, we’ll track thousands of sharp bets and show you where all that money is going. Not just in the NFL—but in the NBA and college basketball, too.
One game the sharps appear locked in on in the Sunday night game in Tampa between the Bucs and the Commanders.
Tampa is a 3-point favorite in a game with a consensus total of 50.5.
Our sharps are betting the Bucs here—and we show a solid Three-Bag Sharp Score to back that up.
Me? I’m no sharp, but I’ll be betting with our sharps on Sunday. I love the Bucs in this spot.
Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game against opposing QBs who have started a playoff game—just 19-37-1 ATS since 2017. Jayden Daniels falls into this category.
His offense will have a hard time running the ball against Vita Vea and the #6 DVOA run defense in the NFL It does not help that Washington’s OL is one of the worst of the 14 teams left in the playoffs. The return of former All-Pro Antonio Winfield will bolster the Bucs’ pass D.
On the other side of the ball, the Commanders’ D checks in 23rd DVOA on the season against the 29th-ranked defense schedule. Giants twice … Bears … Panthers … the medical tent Saints late in the season … this defense did play better towards the end of the season but got lucky with the schedule. The Bucs OL should give Baker Mayfield plenty of time to move the ball against a Washington defense that allowed a 108.1 QB rating-against on the road this season (30th).
Bucky Irving gets a run defense that’s allowed over 90 yards a game on the ground over the last four. Irving will be a lock in all my DFS plays on Sunday.
As far as betting the game, the public is hammering the Commanders. The sharps at Sharp Hunter are betting the Bucs.
I’m happy to be on the “sharp” side of this one and will be back Tampa in primetime on Sunday night.
