In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
In most weeks, the SEC is the college football conference that gets all the love. That’s deserved. They have the best teams, so each squad is forced to run the gauntlet every season. Take one week off, and you could be caught slipping.
Just ask Alabama, which lost last week as 22.5-point favorites to Vanderbilt.
That’s not to say that the other conferences aren’t good. They’re just a bit more top-heavy. The best teams typically coast through easier schedules and just have to avoid the few landmines that are on their schedule.
But when those top teams are forced to play each other? All of a sudden, those Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 games become must-see television.
We’re getting two marquee showdowns in the Big Ten this week. Oregon will travel to Ohio State in a battle between top-3 teams, while Penn State will put its perfect record on the line on the road vs. USC.
While Oregon and Ohio State can both survive a loss and still make the playoffs, Penn State can’t suffer a defeat against a 3-2 USC squad. The Nittany Lions are only -250 to make the playoffs on FanDuel, so any unexpected slip-up could cost them. They still have a huge showdown with Ohio State on the horizon, so they need to give themselves a bit of wiggle room.
Thor Nystrom is going to focus on his wager for the Penn State game, so let’s dive into Oregon-Ohio State and two other must-see games in an excellent week for college football.
WEEK 7 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The three best college games for your viewing pleasure on Saturday
- Thor Nystrom details his favorite wagers for the Week 7 college slate
- Watercooler: Could the World Series turn into a Subway Series?
The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 7
by Matt LaMarca
Ole Miss (-3.5) at LSU—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Don’t get it twisted. Just because I highlighted a couple of Big Ten showdowns in the intro doesn’t mean that the SEC isn’t holding its own this week. Far from it. We’ve got two ranked-on-ranked showdowns, including this one between Ole Miss and LSU.
Ole Miss bounced back from its first loss of the season with an impressive win vs. South Carolina. Ole Miss limited the Gamecocks to just three points, while Jaxson Dart and the offense rolled up 425 yards and 27 points. More importantly, their pass protection held up against a talented South Carolina front seven, allowing just one sack. That was the biggest issue in a loss to Kentucky, so if the Rebels have that straightened out, the march to the CFB playoffs is officially back on in Oxford.
That said, things don’t get any easier for the Rebels moving forward. They’re going to have to deal with LSU this week, who has rattled off four straight wins after losing their first game of the year to USC. That has them back up to No. 13 in the country, though they haven’t really played an intimidating schedule.
Still, it’s never easy to go into Tiger Stadium. The Rebels are just 3.5-point favorites, so this is going to be a real test.
Texas (-14.5) at Oklahoma—3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
What’s better than a top-25 SEC showdown? A top-25 SEC showdown between two bitter rivals.
This will be the first time that the Red River Rivalry is contested in the SEC, but this will be the 120th matchup between these two storied programs. Texas holds a 63-51-5 record all time, but Oklahoma managed to get the win last year. That was the only game that the Longhorns lost during the regular season before getting eliminated in the CFB playoffs by Washington.
Can lightning strike twice? The sportsbooks seem to think otherwise, with Texas listed as a favorite of more than 2 touchdowns. The fact that Quinn Ewers will be back in the lineup certainly doesn’t help Oklahoma’s chances.
But as the old saying goes—throw out the records in a rivalry game. The Sooners would like nothing more than to ruin Texas’ dream of a perfect season and get themselves right back in the hunt for a postseason spot. If they can pull off the upset, they’re definitely in the conversation.
Ohio State (-3.0) at Oregon—7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
No disrespect to the other two games, but this one is the best of the week by a wide margin. These are two of the best programs from the past decade, and they both enter this contest with huge expectations this season. The winner will all but guarantee its spot in the CFB playoffs—and a likely bye in the first round—while the loser will still have a bit of work left to do.
Ohio State enters this matchup looking like a juggernaut. The Buckeyes have allowed just 6.8 points per game defensively, which is the best mark in football. Their offense has averaged 46.0, which ranks fourth. Add it all up, and their average margin of victory of 39.2 points is the best mark in College Football. Texas is the only other team in the same realm (38.0), with Tennessee ranking a distant third (29.3).
That comes with a big caveat. Ohio State hasn’t played anyone yet this season. It is ranked 111th in ESPN’s strength of schedule index up to this point, but that increases to 17th for the rest of the season. Things are about to get a whole lot tougher.
We’ll find out a lot about the Buckeyes this week vs. the Ducks. Ohio State having a talented football team is nothing new. It has entered the season as a top-5 team in the AP poll in eight straight years, yet the Buckeyes have just one trip to the CFB playoffs over that timeframe. It’s put up or shut up time for the Buckeyes. Let’s see if they can get it done.
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Best Bets for College Football Week 7
by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for this weekend in College Football Week 7, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our college football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Penn State at USC
Adjusted Thor Line: Penn State -6.5
Last week, USC got upset on the road at Minnesota. That was a bad matchup for the Trojans—Minnesota has a strong pass defense and a good rushing offense and was thus able to put the clamps on Lincoln Riley’s air-leaning offense while controlling the clock on offense.
USC returns home this week, but this is another bad matchup: Penn State is basically just a much better version of Minnesota.
The Nittany Lions have a fabulous rushing offense—and it appears that rushing offense will return to full strength this week. Penn State HC James Franklin said he's "very confident" that star RB Nicholas Singleton will return for this game. Last week, Singleton missed the first game of his career, a 27-11 PSU victory over UCLA.
Singleton had returned to practice last Thursday and Friday, and he went through pregame warmups. But the staff ultimately decided to rest him to get him healthy for USC. Franklin said Monday that Singleton wasn’t 100 percent but could have played against UCLA. Singleton averaged 102 yards per game over the first four games on a healthy 7.7 YPC.
USC’s run defense has been a problem this season, an issue that the Gophers mercilessly exploited. The Trojans rank No. 105 in yards per carry allowed and also No. 105 in yards per carry before contact. USC’s defensive line is losing at the point of attack.
This is bad news against a PSU run offense that ranks No. 9 in success rate. Singleton and backfield mate Kaytron Allen are going to be spotted an extra yard or two before they get touched against USC. It’s an advantage you don’t want to give them—that duo has helped PSU rank No. 13 in yards after contact per carry this fall.
USC’s defense has improved to a middling No. 62 SP+—because the Trojans’ pass defense has improved a bit, and because USC has, by the numbers, had the nation’s best conversion rate on stifling third-and-medium and third-and-long attempts by opposing offenses.
The issue? The Trojans do not force good rushing offenses—see: Minnesota game—into those types of scenarios. Penn State also, it must be said, has a far better passing offense than Minnesota does.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s defense is going to give USC’s offense trouble. Penn State’s front seven might be the nation’s best. The run defense is elite—USC RB Woody Marks will be a non-factor on the ground in this game.
That is going to force USC to be one-dimensional. And it will shine a glaring light on USC’s offensive line issues—the Trojans rank No. 116 in blown block % and, more troublingly, No. 129 in pressure rate allowed.
Penn State’s nasty pass rush—which ranks No. 8 in pressure rate and No. 20 in sacks/dropback—is going to tee off on USC QB Miller Moss. USC will assuredly try to pepper PSU with quick-hitting concepts to mitigate that issue, but that’s unlikely to work—PSU’s defense ranks No. 11 in yards/dropback and No. 28 in EPA/dropback.
Thor’s Bet: Penn State -4.5
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The Rest of Thor’s Best Bets for Week 7
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 7 College Football Pregame Show, featuring Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton, kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
🗽 After meeting for the World Series in 2000, the Yankees and Mets are down to +210 to meet up this season. At least one bettor would be very happy.
💰 We all need more winners in our lives. Freedman’s best bets for NFL Week 6.
🏀 The WNBA delivered an absolute banger in Game 1 of the Finals. Courtney Williams helped the Lynx erase the largest deficit in Finals history.
👀 Speaking of basketball, the NBA tips off in just over a week. We’ve got some win-total bets to consider.
