In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
I am many things, but a liar is not one of them. I’m the type of guy who tells the cashier when they’ve made a mistake and given me too much change. In other words, I’m a sucker.
So believe this sucker when he says this is the longest two weeks of the sports year.
We officially crowned our two conference champions on Sunday, with the Eagles winning the NFC and the Chiefs winning the AFC. Those two squads will meet in New Orleans on Feb. 9, which means we have a ton of time to set the stage before that contest.
There will be plenty of coverage of the Super Bowl here at Fantasy Life. Sides and totals, prop bets, novelty wagers, and everything in between; we’ve got you covered.
But what else is going on in the sports world to occupy our time? It’s just about the thinnest that you’ll ever see the sports calendar. The College Football season is over, while pitchers and catchers are still about a month away from reporting for Spring Training.
Still, there are a few things to monitor:
Senior Bowl
Mobile is going to be popping this week, and our own Thor Nystrom is going to be boots on the ground. Jalen Milroe of Alabama, who could be a top-10 pick in April, will be there. As will both QBs from the CFP National Championship Game—Will Howard and Riley Leonard. Thor will have updates on the Fantasy Life Show, and already has previews on the Quarterbacks and Running Backs—Wide Receivers coming soom. The main event on Feb. 1 will be the last time these players participate in a football game before a good chunk of them are drafted.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am & Waste Management Open
Pebble Beach isn’t a major, but it’s an elevated event. That means that nearly all of the PGA TOUR’s top golfers will take the course. Add in some celebrities for the “Am” portion, and there’s plenty to keep an eye on.
That leads into the Waste Management Open the following week, which is another one of the PGA TOUR’s non-major marquees. Overall, it’s two solid tournaments that will occupy eight days between football games. That’s needed.
The NBA
The NBA isn’t for everyone. I hear all the criticism about the modern game on the internet, and it’s valid. That said, I will defend the NBA ‘til my dying breath. It’s some of the best athletes in the world playing the game at a super-high level, and when two good teams square off with each other, it’s must-see TV.
If you’re someone who hasn’t watched a ton of pro basketball this season, give it a shot in the break before the Super Bowl.
The Royal Rumble
OK, so maybe this isn’t technically a “sport.” But you don’t have to be a sports or wrestling fan to enjoy the Royal Rumble. Plus, if you’re an NFL fan, you likely already have a Peacock Subscription and can check it out.
Get together with some friends, set up a Royal Rumble pool, and enjoy. With two different rumbles—one men’s and one women’s—I can think of worse ways to spend a Saturday night.
The Pro Bowl
I know this is going to sound weird from the guy who just recommended the Royal Rumble, but the Pro Bowl is not my cup of tea. Still, it’s at least a way to scratch the football itch in the weeks between actual contests. It’s not the same event that it used to be, but there might be a smidge of enjoyment still to be had here.
The NFL hiatus starts on Monday, but we at least have a massive 12-game NBA card to dive into. Let’s look at a few betting options, as well as some initial thoughts on Super Bowl LIX.
WHO’S FAVORED TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL?
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Watercooler: Mahomes passes Montana
- Super Bowl LIX: Early Betting Thoughts
- NBA Monday: Who stands out on a massive 12-game card?
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🏆 We’re down to Eagles-Chiefs for Super Bowl LIX.
🤔 You won’t believe who’s the early betting favorite in the Super Bowl.
🏃♂️ It’s been a rough year for Giants fans. Even before they saw Saquon Barkley propel the Eagles back to the Super Bowl.
🏈 The NFL Draft approaches. Thor Nystrom and Mark Drumheller break down Thor’s most recent mock.
🏆 Patrick Mahomes continues to build his legacy. Only Tom Brady stands between him and the GOAT title.
🐆 New rule: Never fade a guy who shows up dressed like Animal from the Muppets. Mack Hollins cashes the +600 anytime TD prop.
🦅 Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts make history. They become the first teammates ever with three rushing touchdowns in the same playoff contest.
Super Bowl LIX Early Betting Thoughts
By Matt LaMarca
We are officially set for a Super Bowl rematch. The Chiefs and Eagles will square off for the second time in the past three seasons, with both teams picking up home victories in the Conference Championships. The Chiefs picked up a 38-35 win over the Eagles the last time these squads met in the Super Bowl, and they followed that up with another championship last season. Ultimately, they’ll be looking to become the first team to “three-peat” in Super Bowl history.
The Eagles’ roster looks a bit different than it did the last two times these teams squared off for the Lombardi Trophy. Jason Kelce is gone—though I’m sure we’ll still see plenty of him over the next two weeks—while the defense has been completely revamped. Their offense has also been turbocharged by the addition of Saquon Barkley, who has been unstoppable all season. He had another 100+ yards and three touchdowns in the NFC Championship, with the Eagles ultimately rolling to 55 points. It was the most points scored in a Conference Championship in NFL history, besting the previous record of 51 by the 1990-91 Bills.
Can the Eagles get some revenge in the rematch, or will the Chiefs pick up their third straight title?
Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Eagles—49.5 Total
At this point, I’m starting to feel like a broken record writing about the Chiefs. This spot feels very similar to last week’s matchup vs. the Bills, which feels very similar to the Chiefs’ matchups vs. the 49ers, Bills, and Ravens in last year’s postseason.
On paper, the Eagles are the superior team. They’ve graded out better in nearly every metric across the board, specifically on defense. From Week 10 on, they were the No. 1 defense in the league in terms of EPA per play. They were able to force three turnovers against the Commanders in the NFC Championship, which is a big reason why they were able to cruise to a win.
The Eagles also have one of the best rushing attacks in football, which could spell trouble for Kansas City. The Chiefs have been slightly improved against the run this season, but it’s still not what I would call a strength. They were No. 11 in rush defense EPA during the regular season, but they allowed 147 yards and 4.6 yards per attempt to the Bills on Sunday. Shutting down Josh Allen and James Cook is no picnic, but Barkley and Hurts are arguably even tougher.
Still, I can’t help but side with the Chiefs in what is expected to be a close contest. This game was listed at -1.5 on the look-ahead line, and that’s exactly what it opened at on Sunday night. It has touched -2.0 at certain locations, but as long as it stays under a field goal, it’s hard to ignore what the Chiefs bring to the table.
It starts with Patrick Mahomes, who is better at winning coin-flip games than possibly any QB in league history. With his win over the Bills on Sunday, he’s now a perfect 8-0 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than three points in the playoffs. He’s 13-7-1 ATS in that split during the regular season, bringing him to 21-7-1 ATS in that split overall.
There’s also the coaching edge to consider. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in NFL history, and while I personally think Nick Sirianni gets more hate than he deserves, there’s no doubt that it’s a mismatch. That’s especially true with additional time to prepare. Reid put on a masterclass in the Super Bowl vs. the Eagles two years ago, scripting up multiple plays for uncontested touchdowns near the goal line. Expect him to be in the lab grinding once again before Super Bowl LIX.
Add it all up, and I have to grab the Chiefs in this spot. It won’t shock me if the Eagles pull off the win, but Mahomes and Reid have come through for bettors in this spot time and time again. Fade them at your own peril.
Best Bets for NBA Monday
By Matt LaMarca
Memphis Grizzlies (+3.5) at New York Knicks
If you like offense, this is definitely a game to check out. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league, and they’re No. 5 in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are No. 2 on offense, so there should be plenty of points scored in this contest.
That said, the Knicks’ defense has left a lot to be desired. They’re merely 15th in defensive efficiency this season, and that number has been significantly worse against good opponents. That’s made them an underperforming squad against the best teams in the league. They’re 0-1 against the Celtics, 0-1 against the Cavs, and 0-2 against the Thunder. They’re also a combined 1-3 against the Timberwolves, Mavericks, and Rockets.
The Grizzlies are firmly in the “good team” category. They’re currently fourth in the league in Net Rating, trailing only the Thunder, Cavs, and Celtics. Add in the status of Josh Hart—he’s officially listed as questionable—and there are reasons to back the Grizzlies in this spot.
Orlando Magic (-1.0) at Miami Heat
The Magic managed to survive while dealing with a host of injuries, but they’re nearly back to full strength. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have both returned to the lineup of late, while Jalen Suggs is questionable to suit up on Monday.
With all three players potentially available, there’s no doubt in my mind they’re the better team. Even with those guys in and out of the lineup this season, they’re still pretty equivalent to the Heat in Net Rating for the year (-0.3 vs. +0.7). With Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs on the floor, the Magic’s Net Rating climbs all the way to +6.1.
Of course, the Heat also have plenty of issues of their own going on. That starts with Jimmy Butler, who is expected to return to the lineup following a two-game suspension. We’ll see if that’s actually the case. Butler clearly is not happy in Miami at the moment, and he is not afraid to act out in order to force his way out of town.
Ultimately, the Heat feel like a strong fade candidate at the moment, while the Magic are a clear buy.
Washington Wizards (+12.0) at Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are still playing without Luka Doncic, but that hasn’t stopped them from hanging with some of the best teams in the league recently. They’ve beaten the Thunder twice in their past five outings, and they’ve hung tight with the Celtics and Timberwolves.
They should be able to dispatch the Wizards on Monday, but it’s not a great situational spot. There’s definitely some letdown potential after running the gauntlet of late, and this is their final home game before departing on a five-game road trip. Don’t be surprised if they’re not 100% focused on getting past the Wizards in this spot, so this game could be closer than expected.
