In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Morning Brew

We interrupt this quiet week before Super Bowl 59 crashes Bourbon Street with tons of Chiefs and Eagles fans—let’s not forget the media throng and corporate sponsors—for a little peek at the annual rite of spring. And with a nod to Patrick Mahomes being both the son of an MLB player (Pat Mahomes Sr.) and a minority owner of the Kansas City Royals, let’s take a moment to remind you that while the Chiefs and Eagles are battling for the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 9, the Cubs will be filing in for Spring Training in Arizona that same day. Yes, those sweet words “pitchers and catchers report” will help us fill that post-Super Bowl void. I humbly present …

The MLB Pre-Preview: Ohtani, Skenes, Lasagna, and More

Following the Cubs in reporting are the World Champion Dodgers, a term this lifelong LA fan can never get enough of. Today is exactly three months after Walker Buehler struck out Alex Verdugo for the last out of the 7-6 Game 5 clincher that finished an improbable comeback from a 5-0 deficit. That last out was the only replay to rival Freddie Freeman’s Game 1 walk-off grand slam in the number of social media views.

Now after a monster offseason where the Dodgers signed a two-time Cy Young winner in Blake Snell, the top Japanese pitcher on the market Roki Sasaki, and a pair of All-Star relievers in Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates the term “loaded for a repeat” is being thrown around like lasagna at a Tommy Lasorda postgame spread during his managing days. 


Almost as tasty? The top 3 of the lineup with MVPs Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman fueling this rocket ship. The fuse is Ohtani, now a three-time MVP and the author of the first 50-50 season in MLB history—he finished with a jaw-dropping 54 homers and 59 steals. What does he do for an encore?

For one, he’ll return to pitching as a two-way player. Let’s remember that in 2023 he struck out 167 hitters in 132 innings for the Angels, finishing 10-5 in 23 starts before his season ended because of elbow surgery. He’s expected to start pitching again this season, though not likely at the start of the season when the Dodgers and Cubs open with a two-game series in Tokyo on March 18-19. The Beatlesque reception he and his teammates will get in his home country will be truly awe-inspiring.

With baseball beckoning, we thought it would be fun to look at some of the props being set for this most improbable of players. And a few others.

BASEBALL NOT YOUR THING? HOW ABOUT SUPER BOWL BEST BETS!

 

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Ian and Dwain already have their 2025 WR rankings. Who’s No. 1?

🏈 QBs went quick in the Top 10 of Freedman’s latest NFL mock draft.

🪨 Cleveland Rocks! Well, maybe the offense could use some help.

➕ Le’Veon Bell+Arian Foster+LeGarrette Blount = Damien Martinez. Yup, that’s what Thor got when he added it up.

🪙 Riley Leonard dropping dimes at Senior Bowl practice.

🐐 Let’s remember Shohei Ohtani’s legendary game that launched the 50-50 club.

He Loves LA! Shohei Ohtani Propped and Ready

Yes, Shohei Ohtani is coming off left (non-throwing) shoulder surgery for an injury he suffered in Game 2 of the World Series. What are the odds he comes back the way he did after 2023 elbow surgery to have arguably the greatest all-around season in MLB history? Ohtani has done nothing short of shattering expectations and barriers to Ruthian levels. Let’s dive in…

Ohtani hits 40+ HR: -175 (DraftKings)

He’s the only MLB player at minus odds to hit this milestone (Aaron Judge is off the board). Ohtani has reached this mark three times in the past four seasons, and in two of those seasons he logged a pitcher’s workload. Hard to argue with him scaling those heights again, especially hitting leadoff. His odds are +240 to hit 50+ dingers.

Ohtani steals 40+ bases: +140 (DraftKings)

As amazing as those 59 stolen bases were, he did not pitch a single inning. That’s plenty taxing, and the Dodgers might not push him in his return to the mound—especially with October aspirations. His previous high in SB was 26. His odds for stealing 30+ bags are -155. They dip to -310 for 20+. Much more reachable.

Ohtani reaches 150+ strikeouts: +150 (DraftKings)

In his last three seasons pitching (2021-23), Ohtani posted at least 23 starts, surpassing that strikeout milestone each season. This is a tempting bet, but with the pitching depth the Dodgers have, even if he takes the mound in April or May it might be hard to reach the number of innings needed to hit the over. Still, it’s hard to bet against him, so if you want a small fun bet and a good late-September sweat, go for it.

Ohtani over/under 42.5 HR (BetMGM)

Again, three times in the past four seasons he surpassed that mark. Twice as a two-way player. You want to take the under? Not me. He’ll get the extra at-bats hitting leadoff, plus Dodger Stadium is an underrated park for left-handed power hitters. I’m going over, even if it takes him most of the season to get there. 

Ohtani MLB Strikeout Leader +5000 (BetMGM)

He’s surpassed 200 strikeouts once in his career—219 in 2022. Again, the Dodgers will take every precaution to not overtax him during the regular season. October, though, all governors are off. Hunter Greene is an interesting longshot at +2500. Not turning 26 until Aug. 6, Greene is coming off a season where he punched 169 strikeouts in 150.1 innings. He allowed a paltry 96 hits. FTR, he was a two-way player at Notre Dame HS out here in Los Angeles. If you want a strikeout longshot, Greene is going into his prime years and has completed three seasons since he had Tommy John surgery.

Ohtani NL MVP +185 (BetMGM)

He’s the betting favorite, ahead of new Met Juan Soto at +550. Ohtani returns to the mound, still hitting ahead of two studs likely headed to Cooperstown and for a juggernaut that will zoom past 100 wins. I’ll take those odds. 

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Yes, There are Other MLB Player Props

Much as some would like to look at the upcoming season through Dodger Blue-colored shades (not me, wink), there are other teams, and players who have some interesting props. Here are a few to keep an eye on:

Paul Skenes NL Cy Young Award +240 (BetMGM)

Was there a more dominant pitcher in either league than Skenes after he debuted on May 11? If there was, it didn’t take long to call roll before his name came up. A 1.96 ERA, 11-3 record, and 170 strikeouts in 130 innings on his way to NL Rookie of the Year, it’s easy to project that out to a dominant season for the 6-foot-6, 235-pound ace. A good longshot is the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto at +2000. With that stacked bullpen, he’ll leave plenty of games after 5 or 6 innings and let that stacked bullpen close out his wins. Just stay healthy. 

Side note: The controversy around Topps’ Skenes “debut patch” card is fascinating.

Gunnar Henderson AL MVP +600 (BetMGM)

Aaron Judge (+300) and Bobby Witt Jr. (+450) are the only players favored over Henderson. The Baltimore shortstop is off to a great start to his career, mashing 37 homers and stealing 21 bags while hitting at the top of a stacked Orioles lineup. The O’s made the playoffs with 91 wins, just three behind the Yankees for the league lead. If they overcome a Yankee team still smarting over losing Soto, Henderson will get a good chunk of the accolades.

Further down the board is Julio Rodriguez at +3000. He went 30-30 at age 22 two years ago. He’s as talented as anyone in baseball. He will have a dominant season, maybe this year, and be in the MVP mix. 

Kyle Schwarber MLB Home Run Leader +1000 (DraftKings)

Schwarbs hits bombs, strikes out, walks, and scores a ton of runs. He also hits leadoff in front of Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, so he’ll see plenty of pitches to hit in that band box in Philly. With 131 homers in the past three seasons, he’ll be in the mix as long as he’s in that lineup—he’s missed just 19 games total the past three years.

Keep an eye on Matt Olson at +5500. He could be primed to bounce back after a “disappointing” 29-home run season that followed his monster 54 longballs in 2023. He’s still hitting in the heart of a loaded Braves lineup. His teammate Austin Riley at +8000 is another good long bet.

Which Jackson will hit the most HR? (BetMGM)
 

  • Jackson Chourio -125
  • Jackson Merrill +135
  • Jackson Holliday +550

 

This is a fun bet to close things out. From June 2 through the end of the season, Chourio hit .305 with 16 homers, drove in 63 runs, scored 60 times, and stole 15 bases. Prorated to 162 games, that’s 100 runs, 104 RBI, 27 HR, 25 SB. He’ll barely turn 21 weeks before the start of the season. A superstar is being born in Milwaukee.

If you want the longshot, Holliday has to improve on the .189 batting average in his big league debut after he hit .271 with 10 home runs, 38 RBI, and 8 SB, with almost as many walks as hits at AAA. First he must win an everyday role, then follow in his father’s footsteps. Matt was a seven-time All-Star. 

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