In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
If you can’t get excited about a playoff game between these Ravens and Bills, make a beeline for the nearest hospital and get checked for a pulse.
Today’s word of the day is epic, with a Tolkien-esque matchup on deck for the fate of Middle Earth.
I can’t wait until tonight …
One Game To Rule Them All:
One ring for the victor held up on high,
Hands raised in elation, that point towards the sky.
A Conspiracy of Ravens, what does Lamar’s future hold,
Versus the Bills’ circled wagons, Josh Allen’s tale still untold …
One game to rule them all, one game to find them …
One game to bring them all, and in the frozen tundra bind them.
If you want to see where our experts are laying down their bets, look no further.
Remember, we have you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life throughout the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.
My customary reminder—Head over to our Odds page to compare the prices around the books for this weekend’s games, then use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
BIGGEST EDGES ON SUNDAY’S SLATE
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Playoffs: AFC Divisional Blitz
- The New York Prop Exchange: Long Live The King
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 More prop bets for today’s games … A.J. Brown squeaky-wheel narrative?
📊 NFL Draft Big Board update … a number of stars move up.
🏆 Tomorrow is a big football day, too. Picks and props for the CFB National Championship.
🪄 Mahomes Magic never gets old … these two are unstoppable in January.
🤔 Penalty or not? You be the judge …
NFL Playoffs🏈💥—AFC Divisional Blitz
No. 3 Ravens (12-5) at No. 2 Bills (13-4)
- Sun. Jan. 18, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: Ravens -1.5 (-110; DraftKings)
- Total: O/U 51.5
If you’re getting the feeling we’re on a crash course for the most anticipated football game in recent memory, you’d be 100% right. With so many clashing layers to this story, both on-field and off, I’m not quite sure where to begin. These two teams hold so many similarities at this point, it’s eerie.
First, the most obvious—being led by an elite dual-threat quarterback with skillsets bordering on superhuman. Both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen set the NFL on fire this year, rating among the very best in EPA/dropback with triple-digit passer ratings, while protecting the football and keeping their eyes locked downfield for potential deep shots. The mere versatility alone disallows any sort of conventional attack plan. Then, they’re darn near impossible to sack with the ability to tuck the ball and take off for the sticks—only Jayden Daniels ran for more first downs at the position. Needless to say, each presents a unique hurdle for opposing coordinators, regardless of how well their defenses played in more cut-and-dry situations.
Each offense boasts a true complementary threat from the backfield as well. I get no one is necessarily forcing James Cook into the same alpha tier as Derrick Henry—but detractors may want to pump the brakes on too severe a disparity. Cook scored the same amount of rushing TDs as King Henry on a similar success rate and yards gained after contact per rush. Since the Bills’ Week 13 bye, Cook’s averaged just shy of 6 yards/carry, no small feat.
And the offensive similarities don’t end there. Neither passing attack boasts a true separator in the secondary. Not a single pass catcher in this game racked up more than 76 catches or averaged over 65 receiving yards/game in 2024. Success through the air today will be determined via schematics and the ability to create one-on-one mismatches near the line of scrimmage. No matter how you slice this one, it’s as evenly matched as possible.
On the defensive side of things, it’s another Spiderman GIF. Go figure, who would’ve guessed? Both Buffalo and Baltimore feature almost exclusive +5-DB packages with a heavy emphasis on Cover-3 looks and two-high safeties to prevent the deep ball. Neither rely on blitzes or sacks to make their mark, instead depending on the first tackler to eliminate any yards after the catch.
The deeper I dive, the closer it gets. No wonder the spread hasn’t gotten beyond 2 points in either direction.
Open one door, only to find another (and another … )
LEAN: BAL ML (-118)
THE BET: Derrick Henry O96.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DK
Two questions. What the heck is this line, and have more famous last words ever been spoken? If my writeup on today’s clash of titans didn’t convince you Ravens/Bills is likely coming down to the wire, I don’t know what will. In these case types with a team’s season on the line, sign me up for the status quo—nothing wrong with the old bread and butter.
Once the Ravens smelled black and yellow blood in the water for a chance at the AFC North divisional crown, they fully leaned into the least surprising game plan imaginable. Feed Derrick Henry. Since the Ravens’ Week 14 bye, King Henry finally saw a pathway to raising the Lombardi Trophy, and he’s playing some of the best ball of his career to get there.
- +0.16 EPA/Rush
- 56% Success Rate
- 22.2 Carries Per Game
- 140.0 Rush Yard Per Game
- 6.3 Yards Per Rush
- 1.98 Yards Over Expectation Per Rush
- 3.88 Yards After Contact Per Rush
- 15.3% Explosive Rush Rate
- 7 +20-Yard Carries
While Buffalo’s run defense is far from porous, it did allow three running backs to eclipse this mark in 2024—Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor … and Derrick Henry. During their Week 4 tilt back in late September, Buffalo couldn’t find an answer for the veteran RB, who averaged a ridiculous 8.3 YPC on his way to 199 yards and a score.
I hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life Newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing from you!
MORE DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYER PROJECTIONS
Bet Sharp For The Game Of The Year
- Source: Sharp Hunter
- Author: Mike Mutnansky
I hope you had nothing but winners on Saturday in the NFL.
And all of us here at Sharp Hunter hope you’re ready for…
THE. GAME. OF. THE. YEAR.
Hyperbole? Maybe. But Ravens and Bills Sunday night feels more like a Super Bowl matchup than a Divisional Round finale.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking sharp bets from thousands of bettors. Whether it’s a potential GAME OF THE YEAR or a battle between two teams bound for top-10 picks in the next year’s NFL Draft.
As far as Sunday night goes, the Ravens are either 1- or 1.5-point favorites, depending on where you're betting. The total is a consensus of 51.5 points.
And let’s focus on the total, because the sharps at Sharp Hunter like the under. We show a strong Three-Bag Score to back that confidence.
I love this game—and I’m betting the under with the sharps here.
I think the weather will be a factor on Sunday night. Temps are in the teens in Buffalo with snow showers. And for all the hype (warranted by the way) of Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson, these two teams want to run the football.
Both teams (BAL 53.6% and BUF 48.8%) are top-4 in the NFL in rush rate. The Bills were happy to put a sixth lineman out there against the Broncos and pound the ball.
The Ravens acquired Derrick Henry to do the same against these Bills.
Zay Flowers is doubtful here and even if he plays he’ll be limited: that limits the Ravens offense.
Two top-11 DVOA defenses. Two teams that want to run. And a game in frigid temps. I know it’s Josh vs. Lamar and this handicap could look silly given the quarterbacking talent, but I’m betting under 51.5.
The sharps at Sharp Hunter agree on the total—they’re betting under 51.5.
