In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Right after decorating for Christmas, these dog days of summer are my favorite time of year. Brooklyn’s basking in all its sunny glory as Major League Baseball accelerates into its playoff races. And if that’s not enough, we’re all drafting fantasy teams 24/7 while researching bets for a guaranteed-to-be epic NFL season on the horizon. WOOHOO!
Be prepared, though, the absolute nonstop deluge of information is enough to crush a normal person—lucky for us, no one’s accusing me of anything like that.
I stumbled onto an MLB futures bet for today and I already made sure to drop cash down on it before it moves. Hopefully, we can keep the momentum going after Grant Holmes got our strikeout prop to the ticket window last night — let the good times roll.
Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit is LIVE (and free)! Click here to access all of the content you need to dominate your drafts.
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- Your Keys to Winning $10 Million
- Watercooler: Breaking down the ACC for the 2024 College Football season.
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮 —Gophers Sowing Division
I pondered this one out loud on a recent pod and got the rare, nice surprise when I cracked the computer open. What’s better than digging through books and finding your line so far off expectations that it stops you in your tracks?
It doesn’t happen often, so savor the flavor.
The MLB playoff landscape is starting to come into focus—high time to take the market’s temperature. So I said to myself (SELF!): who’s the best all-around team that no one talks about? They’d have to be a favorite getting off the bus most nights, providing a three-phase edge (hitting, starters, bullpen) with extra emphasis on frontline starters. To me, the answer is simple. Give me the Minnesota Twins down the stretch, they do it all.
Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober provide a legitimate 1-2 punch that can hang with anyone for a series. Granted they just lost Joe Ryan, but the Twinkies remain stacked with high-impact arms. Youngsters Simeon Woods-Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews round out the type of rotation that can set MIN up to go on long runs at a time.
The lineup is top 5 by wRC+, mashing all year but really level up when anchored by Royce Lewis. They’re top 5 since the break in both barrel rate and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
Then if the Twins lead late, you get the great displeasure of facing a dominant trio of relievers. It’s no fun for hitters knowing Jorge Alcala, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran are licking their lips, just waiting to slam the door. The Twins are trying to chase down the Guardians, who they currently trail by four games with 42 left to play.
In short, I’m not buying what Cleveland’s selling.
As much as I like Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee up front, the rest of the rotation is duct-taped together after that. And outside bona fide superstud Jose Ramirez on offense, they’re literally an average lineup by the numbers (100 wRC+) with the worst hard-hit rate in MLB on the season. With only a slight four-game lead and a three-game series left to go in Minnesota, there’s no way a Twins AL Central win should only have a 26.3% implied probability at (+280).
THE BET: Minnesota Twins Win AL Central Division (+280)
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football
Guillotine Leagues is fantasy football, with a twist or two...
It’s simple:
Create and draft like any league
Each week the lowest-scoring team is eliminated
Their entire roster becomes free agents
An all-out FAAB war ensues
Survive each week and be crowned champion
Guillotine Leagues is completely free to play and since it is points-based, you can start your league at any point during the season.
But why wait? Now is the perfect time to start your first Guillotine League!
Available on both iOS and Android Apps.
How to Win $10M in Circa Survivor Using Winners Circle Proxy
by Matthew Freedman
I finally—FINALLY!—was able to register for the Circa Sports Survivor Pro Football Contest, which provides a $10M grand prize to first place.
Did you hear me? I said, "Ten. Million. Doll. Hairs."
For those unfamiliar with the contest here's how it works: Each week of the NFL season (plus once each for Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas), every participant must pick one team to win its game. If that team wins, the participant advances but cannot use that team again. And if that team loses, then the participant is eliminated. Whoever survives to the end wins.
Straightforward. Sophisticated in its simplicity. But definitely not easy.
Why hadn't I registered before? Because Nevada betting laws require participants to enter the contest in person. Sure, that's a little annoying … but now for the rest of my life that will give me a convenient excuse to go to Vegas in August for some preseason football, Stadium Swim, and Bet Bash debauchery.
And it's not as if I need to be in Vegas every week during the season to enter my picks—because I have Winners Circle Proxy Service (WCP) to do that for me.
WCP makes the process effortless.
I booked an appointment with them and then showed up at the Circa Sportsbook.
They helped me sign up for the contest.
The sportsbook gave me four drink tickets when I registered, and I had a great rest of my day.
Whenever the season comes around, I'll enter my picks weekly online in the WCP portal.
And then at the end of the season, I'll be $10M richer.
WCP has been around for just under a decade, and they're trusted by people who know what they're doing: Last year, two of the four Survivor winners were WCP users, as well as the Circa Sports Million V champion.
So that was Vegas: I had fun and signed up for the Survivor contest with the help of WCP.
Now, here's my five-step plan for how I (admittedly, a Survivor novice) plan to win the thing.
1. Project All 272 NFL Games
Done.
For every team I have a power rating, which can change based on the value of the starting QB relative to his backup. For every stadium I have a home-field advantage, which can change based on the nuances of a matchup. And for every game I have calculated against-the-spread projections that take into account rest, travel, and a number of other situational factors.
Without projections like these, I feel as if I would be trying to navigate the landscape of the 2024 regular season without a compass.
Throughout the season, my weekly game projections will be available with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
These projections are the starting point.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🏈 NFL football returns tonight. Bets for Week 2 of the NFL Preseason.
👀 We’re less than two weeks away from College Football kickoff. Everything you need to know about the ACC for 2024.
🔥 Everyone loves a hot take. Dwain breaks down his bold predictions for 2024.
📊 Our suite of College Football tools is live for 2024. Power Rankings, win projections, and more.
🏀 A runaway favorite for WNBA Rookie of the Year? The sportsbooks may clean up on this…
