In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
NFL’s Deadball Era: I’ve been joking on social media lately that football finally followed baseball down the dead-ball rabbit hole—except it honestly feels much less funny now that it’s come true.
How bad is the recent offensive output when faced nose-to-nose against historicals, you ask? It’s as if someone took all the air out of the ball. You may want to sit down for this …
(All data per TruMedia. 2000-2024)
- 21.2 Points Per Game — Lowest since 2003
- 60.7 Plays Per Game — Lowest since recording in 2000
- 320.7 Yards Per Game — Lowest since 2005
- 5.3 Yards Per Play — Lowest since 2007
- 44.4% Rush Rate — Lowest since 2008
- -0.04 EPA/Play — Lowest since recording in 2000
For some perspective from Sleeper Fantasy, Brandon Aubrey (yes, a kicker) is outscoring the vast majority of skill position players across the entire league in fantasy points scoring (seriously, he’s a top-30 scorer, including QBs, in total fantasy points!). Regarding the actionable impact on betting, it’s not without nuance. It won’t be as simple as avoiding overs and receptions or blindly piling onto unders and rush props because prices fluctuate.
That said, keep your head on a swivel and stay extremely wary of any game totals north of 50 …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The NFL Chart of the Week
- The New York Prop Exchange
Wednesday Charts 🧠📊—Circle The Wagons
Each Wednesday (during my only chance to catch a mid-week breath) I’ll be presenting the league through the lens of a single image.
While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score. It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.
NOTE: Positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball, so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance on both sides of the ball.
THE GOOD:
BUF—The wagons are circling as Buffalo’s vision for pure domination begins to manifest. The defense’s play continues to impress without anchor Matt Milano after turning the Jags into minced meat. No one can hold a candle to this squad right now as they pull away from the field.
MIN—Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold return to the Twin Cities this weekend as conquering heroes. How long until the Darnold MVP chants begin?
NO—The Saints stumbled for the first time in 2024 against a tough Eagles team, but continue to play well in all phases of the game. However, New Orleans faces a major inflection point with the Falcons, Chiefs, and Bucs coming up on the schedule. Contender or pretender?
THE BAD:
WAS—Jayden Daniels looks like the truth under center for the Commanders, but being single-handedly responsible for stretching the chart to the downside defensively is unsustainable. The Washington secondary is a perpetual target for prop betting.
LAR—The cologne from a miraculous Week 3 win against San Fran won’t last when you’re this leaky on defense. Continue targeting the Rams’ defense aggressively.
CLE—Watching this iteration of Deshaun Watson makes me visibly angry. A more-than-stout defense continues to keep the Browns in a weekly rock fight, but Cleveland is in desperate need of change.
THE UGLY:
JAX—In trading terms, we’re at or near the stop loss and time to sell on the Jaguars. Sure, this could theoretically be the bottom for Jacksonville but without an immediate and marked turnaround, they may need to break this team down.
MIA—The only thing keeping that Dolphin logo afloat on the chart is an offense led by a QB set to miss another month. If last Sunday was any clue of what’s to come, abandon ship.
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Give ‘Em The Heater ⚾️🔥 —Two Suburbans And A Herz
There’s just enough time for a quick MLB prop without any NFL games on the schedule. Hopefully, you won’t think of me as hypocritical backing a National after I spent a week ranting about betting on competitors only. The thing is, not all bad teams are created equal. The Nationals have a clear vision for the future of their ballclub, recently infused with a shot of youth hellbent on making their case as big leaguers.
That and, you know, these youngsters would love to play spoiler to the Royals, who are assured must-win games from here on out.
Part of Washington’s bright future is 23-year-old rookie southpaw DJ Herz, who’s put together a much better season analytically than the 4.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP surface combo—it’s the 3.32 xERA, 19.5% K-BB, 30% Whiff, 34% Hard Hit, and .290 xwOBA that brings the spreadsheet geek’s milkshake to the yard.
It may sound weird to novices but I also like buying the dip on his recent blowup against the Mets (3.1 IP, 7 ER). Mind you, even in a floor game, DJ Herz still managed to clear today’s bar of O4.5K—something he’s done in seven straight, and nine of ten.
The Royals will be playing for their lives, but the trend hasn’t been their friend, landing 25th or worse in both strikeout and contact rates against lefties (below).
THE BET: DJ Herz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140) DKSB
Be sure to get the best value for all of your MLB bets with our MLB prop finder and MLB Odds table!
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
💎 A Hidden Gem for Week 4? Our Betting Team has unearthed a sleeper for survivor pools …
📊 Get a head start on your Week 4 data dive … projections are live.
⚡️ There’s fast, and then there’s FAST. These RBs are running, alright …
👀 A 5-1 bet for the NL Pennant that’s worth your attention. John has your answer.
🏆 Super Bowl Odds are updated after 3 weeks of action … who’s worth a bet?
📈 Holy line movement, Batman! The Vikings are on the rise.
