THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Breakdown. Course History, Best Bets, and more.

THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Breakdown

Call it the fifth-major, call it a signature field, call it the toughest field in golf, but whichever way you slice it THE PLAYERS Championship is, hands down, one of the best events in golf. It’s a week where an elite field – bereft of past their-prime former champions or amateurs with little to no chance of winning – compete for enormous prizes (25M purse, 4.5M to first) on a venue in TPC Sawgrass that presents real and present danger at every angle.

Sawgrass is so volatile that most of the top players have multiple missed cuts on their resume at this event and some in the field have even seen the weekend in less than 50% of their career Sawgrass starts. It’s a venue that has never produced a back-to-back winner and only six players in the history of the event (1974 to present) have ever won at Sawgrass multiple times.

Some other quick notes about the event:

• It’s a 144-man field. That’s over double the 69-man field we had last week
• It moved from May to March on the schedule back in 2019 and since then, has produced four winners, who have all also won major championships
• It’s now the third leg of the Florida swing and third week in a row the PGA is playing in Florida (although there was an event in Puerto Rico last week as well)
• Tiger Woods, despite getting an invite, is not in the field

THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Odds

Scottie Scheffler took down the Arnold Palmer Invitational last weekend. He was +650 to win that event. This week, despite the field being much larger and this being one of the most volatile events of the season, he’s even shorter to win at +550.

Scheffler is playing on another level (in terms of his tee-to-green play at least) but certainly, even with the level of golf he’s playing, any kind of value his outright number all but disappeared after the win. We also saw names like Will Zalatoris and Hideki Matsuyama get shorter after strong efforts last week while Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa saw their odds get longer after poor starts at Bay Hill.

2024 PLAYERS Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

THE PLAYERS Championship Course Preview

TPC Sawgrass – Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida  

Par 72, 7,275 yards, 

Greens: Bermuda (overseed Poa) / Fairways: Bermuda / Rough: Bermuda

Designer: Pete Dye

Past winners:

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler +1000
• 2022: Cameron Smith +5000
• 2021: Justin Thomas +2000
• 2020: Covid
• 2019: Rory McIlroy +1400

Outside of Scheffler last year, who was pretty much on his own planet in terms of tee-to-green play, winners of this event have shown some upside at the course in at least one prior season (generally in the form of a top-20 or better finish). While Sawgrass does have a solid correlation with many other Pete Dye venues (Hilton Head and TPC Stadium) other more classic setups on the PGA TOUR, like Colonial and TPC Southwind, also require similar skill sets for success.

Justin Thomas pitches onto the 15th green during round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on Feb. 8, 2024.

At its core, Sawgrass is the ultimate precision course. Water is in play on 18 holes and its setup rarely gives the players a straight-away tee shot or approach, where they can hammer the ball with impunity and not worry about landing spots or missing a target by a few feet in any direction. On the contrary, Sawgrass is all about hitting targets and a few feet can often mean the difference between birdie and double bogey or worse. It rewards those who are patient, and accurate, but also confident enough to pull off big risk-reward shots that can swing the scoring in their favor and allow them to pick up shots on the field.

Undoubtedly, a strong week with approaches to the greens is vital this week but driving accuracy and around-the-green play is critical as well. The winding and claustrophobic nature of Sawgrass means that players will be tested on their accuracy (throughout the bag) and with four par 5s, and five par 4s that measure in at 450-500 yards, longer approaches at Sawgrass are still plentiful, even with the shorter overall yardage the course maintains for a par 72.

Stat notes:

• Course history: 14 of the last 15 winners had finished 23rd or better at THE PLAYERS in a previous SZN (except Scheffler, prev best T55).
• Strokes gained around the green: The last seven winners at Sawgrass have all gained +1.5 strokes or more around the greens. Four of the past seven winners have gained +3.0 strokes or more around the greens.
• Strokes gained approach: Six of the last seven winners have gained +4.0 strokes Approach or more for the week.

THE PLAYERS Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me I like playing these names in the placing department as well and I’ve included placing options for each name if you are constructing a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant.

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here.

Will Zalatoris (+3500) | Top-5 (+650, DraftKings) 

• Play to +3000

Betting outrights this week isn’t a super hard decision for me. I’m not betting Scheffler at +550 so, naturally, I am looking further back to the next group of players and willing to stack a couple of names who could conceivably challenge Scheffler this week.

I’ll start with Zalatoris who is now available at a very palatable +3500 on DraftKings and comes in gaining strokes across the board. A winner at TPC Southwind, he’s got the precision off the tee and throughout his approach game to deal with Sawgrass’ numerous doglegs and quirky layout. His putting has always been a question mark but he’s shown some pretty vast improvement with that club since switching to a more upright style and his short game may still be a bit underrated by the market.

He’s finished T21 and T26 at Sawgrass (and played through injury in 2023 to a T73 finish) and his recent form is fantastic with T2 and T4 finishes over his last two starts. He’s a player who looks primed to breakthrough soon and, at 5x the odds that Scheffler is offering, looks like a decent wager this week given that he has (at one point) possessed the solo lead on the weekend in each of the last two events he’s played on TOUR.

Jordan Spieth (+3500) | top five (+330, DraftKings) 

• or (each-way +2800 1/4 top five, bet365)

Right behind Zalatoris for me is Jordan Spieth, another name who may not be far from a breakthrough. It's not been easy for Spieth at Sawgrass, but, as with many past champions, the now 30-year-old will likely start to benefit from the wealth of experience he’s built up at this venue (this season will mark his 10th trip around Sawgrass).

Mar 9, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Jordan Spieth chips onto the first green during the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Spieth’s best finish at THE PLAYERS came way back in 2014 (his first year playing the event) when he finished T4 but last season marked a bit of a turning point for him as he managed his way to a T19 finish, gaining 5.5 strokes tee to green in the process. He’s also been extremely solid at other Pete Dye venues, booking wins at Harbour Town Golf Links and TPC River Highlands (a Dye redesign), and also has a runner-up finish at Whistling Straights.

Spieth’s four starts in 2024 have been marked by some extremely solid around-the-green play that allowed him to book 3rd and T6 finishes at the Sentry and WM Phoenix Open. We’ll need a slight uptick in approaches this week but his history and general comfort around these precision venues says there are decent odds of that happening. At this number, I like the upside he brings if that uptick occurs, and would be for including him on any non-Scheffler outright cards this week.

THE PLAYERS Championship Longshot Bets 

Alex Noren (+10000)

• top 10 +850 (DraftKings)
• each-way +11000 1/5 top eight (bet365)

Alex Noren looks like the kind of veteran who can make some noise this week. The Swede is into his 40s now but remains competitive and nearly booked a win at the Bermuda Championship over the fall, an event played on another quirky, short par 72. He’s also coming in off a T9 at the Cognizant Classic where he led the field in approach proximity from >200 yards.

Noren finished T10 at this event back in 2017 and is currently on a 10-event-made cut streak that includes three top 10 finishes. Looking to him as a top 10 placement bet this week makes sense, and it’s also worth noting that he has an early Thursday A.M. tee time that makes him a solid first-round leader target as well (three of the last four years have seen solo first-round leaders at Sawgrass come from the A.M. wave).

Martin Laird +50000 (each-way 1/5 top eight, bet365)

• top 10 +3000
• top 20 +1100
• top 40 +333 (bet365)

A lot of the thesis around backing a player like Noren can also be applied to another veteran in Martin Laird, who is also now in his early 40’s (41 to be exact) and also showing some strong form of late.

The Scotsman is coming off a T10 in Puerto Rico and, like Noren, landed a T9 finish at PGA National two weeks ago – gaining 8.8 strokes around the green and putting, combined, in the process.

The difference between the two? Price. While Noren is hovering around the +10000 and +850 ranges in the outright and top-10 markets, Laird is as big as +50000 as an outright this week and +3000 to top-10.

That’s a pretty insane gap especially when you consider Laird’s history at this event. The winner of the 2021 Shriners Open has played Sawgrass 13 times over his long career and while he’s missed the cut at this event in six of his last eight visits, he finished T5 here in 2013 and T2 in 2012.

Perhaps it’s nothing more than a blip, but I like the way his game has looked the last two weeks and he’s been a form player for much of his career, often stringing together big results and often thriving at the same venues. Considering his price this week, he’s more than worth a flyer and another player to potentially consider for first-round leader wagers considering his early A.M. tee time on Thursday.

THE PLAYERS Championship first-round leader bets

A quick note on first-round leader bets for this week. While wind and weather can often have a big impact in Florida the general trend for this event has heavily favored A.M. starters. Three of the last four seasons have seen solo first-round leaders come from the A.M. wave and going back nine years we have had at least one first-round leader (in the event of ties) come from the A.M. wave every season.

With the wind expected to rise throughout the day on Thursday, I’m again for taking advantage of this trend and targeting players who go off in the early wave.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9000 first-round leader | +900 top 10 after first round (DraftKings)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout has been all over the place this season. He landed a 2nd at the American Express in January and looked like a breakthrough win might be coming soon. Then he hit Florida where he has had issues keeping his ball dry, landing a missed cut at PGA National and a T44 last week at Bay Hill – a result which saw him lose -6.9 strokes on approach (I’m not making up that number).

Despite the regression, I do like him in a one-round format. He opened with a 9-under at the American Express and was a couple of holes away from posting a 65 or better at PGA National in the second round before disaster struck. Last year, his second go-round Sawgrass, he landed rounds of 68 and 69, the best two rounds of his career there to date.

With a nice Thursday A.M. slot and outright odds in the +9000 range, he makes sense as a target for me on Thursday.

Aaron Rai +8000 first-round leader | +750 top 10 after first round (DraftKings)

Aaron Rai is another player who should be on our radar this week in single-round formats. The shorter hitter has an early tee time on Thursday and has posted solid finishes of T19 and T23 over his last couple of starts, showcasing some very solid ball-striking in the process.

He’s also no stranger to starting fast, and posted rounds of 65 and 66 to begin play at the Sony Open and Farmers in January, events where he’d eventually fade and finish outside of the top 20. Last year he finished T19 at this event and managed a 65 in round three, showcasing the kind of upside he has at these sorts of technical venues when his game is in form.

His putting isn’t likely to hold up over four rounds but with everything else clicking I’d not be shocked if he started fast this week while the pressure was still low. Certainly, with his outright number above 75-1 and his top 10 odds at +750 or better, he’s the kind of player we want to be targeting in this market and the kind of odds that don’t require a huge investment.

**as mentioned above, I also like targeting Noren and Laird in the first-round leader market, who both go off in the A.M. wave on Thursday.