The Sentry 2025 Odds, Picks and Course Preview

Geoff Ulrich is here to kick off the PGA season with his picks to win the Sentry 2025, as well as a course preview, betting trends, and more:

The sprawling, laissez-faire Par 73 setup of the Plantation Course, on the island of Maui, which wows fans with its gorgeous settings and scenic tee shots, and treats players to big greens and runway-sized fairways, is perhaps the perfect way to kick off the PGA season.

Players often come into this limited-field event with different forms and mindsets, with many coming off a long break from competitive golf, while others have been busy all fall and winter. However, 2025 will mark a significant departure for this event as it is no longer just a simple “winner’s only” event.

The Sentry 2025 Breakdown

The Sentry has been expanded to 64 players this season (60 will compete as of writing) as the new qualifications allow all winners from the 2024 season to compete, along with any player who finished last year inside the top 50 of the FedEx Cup standings. That’s going to make this a much different event than it has been in years past when the field was often limited to just 30-40 players, many of whom saw the week as a semi-vacation before getting ready for more competitive events down the road.

The event itself has put up a huge variety of winners over the past 10-15 seasons, with many elite names like Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, and Jon Rahm having taken home this title over the past 6-8 years. However, as the field and qualification process has been expanded, we have had a couple more longshot winners creep in.

Harris English, despite not having won the season prior, was able to take home the Sentry title with odds greater than +3000 in 2021. English had been very competitive in his leadup and managed his way in after qualifying for the season-ending Tour Championship. 

Last season, Chris Kirk followed a similar path and paid off for bettors at 125-1 or bigger, making him the biggest longshot winner of this event in 10+ years.

The open nature of the course and the massive greens and fairways mean this event often boils down to an iron and putting contest, which does help the bottom end of this field. With the expanded entry system, it’s possible we could again see a Kirk or English-type winner prevail.

Below I’ll dive more into the course and what sorts of stats we should look for, along with a general overview of some of the players trending well from a recent form perspective.

Let’s dive in and get our PGA week started!

The Sentry 2025 Course Preview

Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course) – Maui, Hawaii (used from 1999 to present)

Field Size: 60 players (Event is limited to last year’s winners on PGA TOUR and the Top 50 in FedEx Cup)

7,596 yards, Par 73

• Greens: Bermuda
• Fairway: Bermuda
• Rough: Bermuda
• Architect: Coore & Crenshaw (built in 1991)

Alterations: 2019 saw a massive overhaul. Greens, fairways, and bunkers all were redone, new tournament tees were also added which lengthed many holes.

The Plantation course can best be described as a mix of big vast holes, and shorter scoring holes that require more precision.

With the changes to the course, there are also now two Par 4’s that measure over 500 yards in length, and the venue also features a tough opening stretch. That’s not to say these holes are overly difficult off the tee (the fairways are massive) but players will have longer approaches and their approach games will be tested right off the bat.

The last two holes also stretch over a massive amount of property as the Par 4-17th (the hardest hole on the course now) plays over 550 yards as a Par 4. It’s got out of bounds in play to the left for very wayward drives and features an elevated green that is somewhat difficult to hit.

The 18th has also been stretched to 675 yards. Downhill drives assist players in both these spots but these are far tougher holes than they used to be for the pros, with the Par 5 now being a tough birdie hole for anyone looking to close out a win on Sunday.

The Bermuda greens can also be tricky. They’re bigger than average for a Tour event and have big undulations that can make lag putting and scrambling around the green tricky. Green speeds here are tame by Tour standards but the big undulations and green side runoffs make scrambling tough and the field tends to scramble at a lower rate than the Tour average (which is around 57%).

Approach play is still key this week but players need to be able to navigate these bigger greens. They’re a huge feature of the course and the last three winners (Rahm, Smith, and Kirk) have all gained over 7.0 strokes combined putting + ATG.  As a note, last year’s winner Chris Kirk gained 3.5 strokes Around the Green (ATG), while the 2023 winner Jon Rahm gained 2.9 strokes ATG and actually lost strokes on approach for the week.

While great approach play is a must, winners at the Plantation Course have actually gained the most via the putter here over time (via FantasyNational.com). It’s how winners have tended to separate on a course that doesn’t require a ton of accuracy off the tee.

Betting Trends for The Sentry 2025

Below are the previous 10 winners of the Sentry and their pre-event odds from the beginning of the week of the event. (Odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.)

From an odds perspective, there have been plenty of short favorites deliver wins. Jordan Spieth (‘16), Dustin Johnson (‘18), Justin Thomas (‘20), and Jon Rahm (‘23) all won with closing odds well under +1000. 

To counter that trend there have also been a solid number of players winning in the +2000 to +4000 range (six of the last 10).

With this year’s field a little bigger you could even think about looking a little further back. We haven’t had many triple-digit winners at this event but with the expanded field and Kirk's win last season certainly, there is a better argument to add in a longshot or two to cards in 2025.

Recent Form (Names to Watch)

As a way to potentially differentiate who might be a good fit this week, I looked at the top five players in the last 24 rounds in SG: Approach and Putting (emphasis on Slower Bermuda Greens) combined:

• Xander Schauffele
• Harry Hall
• Brian Harmon
• Billy Horschel
• Eric Cole

Schauffele is a former winner of this event and Harmon has finished top five numerous times. Hall and Cole both had great fall starts, although either of those two winning here would be a big shock given the strength of the field. Still, Cole’s game mirrors Kirk almost to a tee (he lost to him in a playoff at Honda) so this is the sort of player you want to chase if betting further down the board.

Recent form-wise, here are a few notes on players coming into the week.

Ludvig Aberg: Healthy now after a knee operation in the fall. Played in two events and looked solid finishing T17 at the RSM and 6th at the Hero in December. Should be ready to roll on a course that looks very suitable for his talents.

Justin Thomas: 2nd at the Zozo and 3rd at the Hero in the fall. His number is very short here but there is still plenty of reason to believe that Thomas will break his winless streak soon. Seems to have reinvested in himself for 2025 and could be in for a big season.

JT Poston: Had a very solid fall event, grabbing a win at the Shriners and a T5 at the RSM Classic. Poston always seems to get overlooked by the crowd and bookmakers to an extent but he’s won three times on the PGA now. He’s very similar in skillset to Chris Kirk and finished T5 at this event last year.

Eric Cole: Cole had another solid fall, landing T15 and T6 finishes in his last two starts. He’s been striking it extremely well and gained 4.1 strokes putting on this venue last season. This is the kind of lower-scoring event you’d figure Cole to have success at and with a couple of top players gone, it’s possible he could duplicate Kirk’s success from last season.

Betting Odds For The Sentry 2025

2025 The Sentry Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

Picks for The 2025 Sentry

Ludvig Aberg

• Outright: +1700 (bet365)
• Top 5: +333
• Top 10: +150

Both of Aberg’s pro wins have come on courses where you have to be precise with your irons and display some touch around the greens. His 2nd place at The Masters also showcases how well he can handle larger more complex greens like the ones we’ll see at the Plantation Course.

His stats have trailed off which has led to him ballooning in the odds a bit as well, but I only view that as an opportunity. He would have easily gone off as second or tied for second favorite in this field if healthy and with a good lead-in.

Aberg’s also got very positive splits on slower Bermuda greens and I don’t much worth into his poor finish here last season either, which came directly after a busy fall where he grabbed two wins.

He seems very eager to get back to where he was last April in form and I view this as an ideal course for someone with his power who also has the finesse needed on approach and around the greens to go low in windy conditions on the Plantation Course. 

Akshay Bhatia

• Outright: +4000 (FanDuel)
• Top 5: +700
• Top 10: +300

I love this spot for Bhatia. The American could have easily bagged two wins last season but a missed short putt at the Rocket Mortgage meant he had to settle for just the one, which came in April at The Valero.

Like Aberg, Bhatia’s glowing with talent everywhere and these bigger fairways should be a boon for someone who likes to shape it off the tee. Bhatia’s also just generally outperformed where he’s been on one of these more expansive, off-mainland resort-style courses, landing a win on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 at Sandals Emerald Bay GC, a 2nd in Puerto Rico in 2023, and a 4th in Mexico in 2023.

He didn’t play any official PGA events this fall but landed a T2 over in Japan at the Dunlap Phoenix and a T4 at the Hero World Challenge.

A solid spike putter who finished T14 at this venue last season while gaining 4.8 strokes putting, I think the 22-year-old is on the verge of a big season and could easily see it starting here with his first elite field win.

Odds-wise, he’s still bigger than plenty of perennial runner-ups below him making him a solid value at +3500 or bigger in the outright department.

Sepp Straka

• Ouright: +9000 (FanDuel)
• Top 5: +1400
• Top 10: +550
• Top 20: +200

Straka’s a dangerous player who can get red-hot with his putter and irons. He won the lower-scoring John Deere back in 2023 and and proved with his win at the Honda and his T2 at the Open in 2023, that he can handle himself in windy environments.

Straka didn’t have any big results this fall, but I like that he stayed busy. He made a couple of cuts over in Europe, played the RSM where he gained 4.4 strokes on approach but missed the cut, and finished T9 at the Hero Challenge, a decent warmup for this week.

He’s also gained over a stroke putting at the Plantation on both of his starts and finished T12 at this event last season. Having finished T16 at The Masters and grabbing top 5 finishes in three signature field events last season, he’s also proven he can compete in these kinds of fields. 

I like laddering him for placement purposes mainly but Straka is the kind of player who could emulate what Kirk did on this course to a degree.