Betting

The Strive Toward Improvement Never Ends

by John Laghezza

4 months ago

In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

When asked what’s up with all the lesson-driven content, my answer is always the same. Not to go full Mister Egghead on you—but even at high levels, the strive toward improvement can never end. Say it with me, life is not static, it’s dynamic.

There’s a widespread misconception regarding skills that transcend sports betting.

What you do not improve does not sustain but degrade—even if ever so slightly. Therefore, the only logical conclusion is what you don’t cultivate daily will eventually disappear altogether. It works in the other direction too. Get just a hair better at your passion daily and achieve leaps and bounds over time.

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

Look Into My Crystal Ball
Building Blocks
The New York Prop Exchange

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Fly, Eagle, Fly

I’d like to briefly build off our discussion about outsourcing work the other day. As the famous saying goes, “It is essential to have good tools, but it is also essential that the tools be used in the right way.”

Luckily, Fantasy Life’s inimitable projection page definitively checks that first box, with me pulling up the rear to pick up the spare.

When looking for value in projection-based future bets, it’s important to understand the mean element to them. Not to oversimplify but it’s intuitive enough on its face—we’re looking for as much room between conservative expectations and the current line.

I’ve got a Jalen Hurts rushing prop both Dwain McFarland and I have over 140 yards clear of that best available bar. Yes, his scramble rate dropped a tick, but he still carries a 13%+ designed rush rate and has never not cleared 525.5 rushing yards by at least 80 across his career—even when only playing 15 games in 2021 and 2022.

Then, the 30.8 rushing yards we need per game falls an absurd 15 yards shy of his career average. Are you kidding me? Not only do I not expect regression from Hurts, I’d assert last year represents the true skill-based outlier and he could have his best year to date.

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An all-out FAAB war ensues

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Building Blocks—No Bet is Better Than A Bad Bet 🧠🧮

We may as well lean into the learning aspect while we’re still waiting impatiently for Week 1 to kick off. it’s the perfect time for to me share my favorite foundational lesson in risk ventures, one I learned a very long time ago that made me a profitable trader—No bet is better than a bad bet, and I can prove it.

For example, let’s say you have $100 on a Sunday to bet responsibly at a 10% maximum risk per play. Somehow, on your very first bet, a great (+100) read goes sideways. An unthinkable fumble out of victory formation winds up costing you that $10 W—and 10% of your bankroll with it ($90 remaining).

Then, on your next bet, you win back 10% at even money. You aren’t back at breakeven, you’re still down 1%. Therefore, every 10% you lose costs you 11% to recover — the quantifiable reason to be selective.

Silly as it may seem on the surface, understanding the value of a percentage point separates those who sustain in live markets from those who chronically deposit.

MLB BET OF THE DAY
The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️

I’ll keep these MLB plays right to the point. Thanks to Grant Holmes and Francisco Lindor, we’re riding a two-play mini-streak—let’s make it heave-ho, three in a row.

Baltimore shocked most rational thinkers when it coughed up premium coin for Marlins’ lefty hurler Trevor Rogers at the deadline. Saying it hasn’t gone exactly to plan might be an understatement, boasting a whopping 7.53 ERA through 3 games started with his new club. Rogers also has many walks as strikeouts since arriving and has yet to come out for the sixth inning as an Oriole.

On the flip side, it’s the let’s-go-Mets-go, a top-3 left-hand-hitting team by OPS, ISO, Barrel Rate, and xwOBA on the season.

New York’s offense gives us an out with an early KO, but this line may be too high anyway. In his only decent start as an Oriole—2 earned runs allowed in Toronto against the Blue Jays on Aug. 7—Rogers got the hook after 5 innings pitched. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rogers is on their “five and dive” list.