The Tennessee Titans Are On The Clock: Can They Pass On Cam Ward?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Look, we all know that the NFL is king when it comes to American sports. We’ve reached a point where the offseason is nearly as big as the actual thing.
The NFL Draft has become one of the biggest events of the year, so much so that we just sent Thor Nystrom to watch dudes run 40s in their underwear.
These Are The Best of Times
That makes this a truly wonderful time of the year. Not only do we have all the NFL offseason stuff to focus on, but the rest of the sports calendar is heating up as well. The NBA and NHL are nearing the playoffs. Spring Training is underway, and MLB Opening Day is right around the corner. March Madness will be upon us shortly, and we’re just a month away from the Masters. What more could you ask for as a sports fan?
We’re doing our best to cover a little bit of everything here at Fantasy Life. John Laghezza has been diving deep on some different MLB teams here in the newsletter. Matthew Freedman and Thor have been cranking out NFL Draft content. We will undoubtedly talk about March Madness and the Masters when that time rolls around as well.
In today’s newsletter, I want to focus on a few different topics that have piqued my interest recently. First, what should the Titans do with the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft? There have been lots of rumors out there, so can we take advantage in the betting market?
Second, is there any value in the NBA Finals odds? The Celtics and Thunder have emerged as heavy favorites in each conference, so there are some pretty tasty longshots out there.
Let’s dive right in.
NFL COMBINE RISERS AND FALLERS
Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …
📈 Where do Quinshon Judkins, Matthew Golden, and Jaylin Noel rank in the 2025 Rookie Super Model?
💤 The NFL never sleeps. Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland break down 11 of the biggest news items from the NFL Combine.
👂Listen, do you want to know a secret? Matthew shares 25 rumors he heard while at the NFL Scouting Combine.
What are the odds … for 2025 NFL Draft markets?
🤔 Should Travis Hunter play both WR and CB in the NFL?
🆘 We all need a little help from time to time. Each NFL team’s biggest needs of the offseason.
🎆 It’s never too early to start thinking about next year. Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy next February?
📉 Pour one out for the Mavericks. Their odds to win the Finals have crated following the Kyrie Irving injury.
To QB, Or Not To QB?
When the Titans first secured the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, it was widely assumed that they would take a quarterback. That’s simply what bad teams that need a quarterback do. Six of the past seven No. 1 picks have been quarterbacks, and the lone exception was when the Jaguars selected Travon Walker in 2022. They took quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 pick the year prior, so that was a reasonable exception.
However, things changed with the Titans shortly after. President of Football Operations Chad Brinker said the team wouldn’t pass on a “generational talent,” which would appear to point them in a position other than quarterback:
Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are the top two QBs in this class, but neither player is really considered a “generational talent.” That moniker would be more apt in describing someone like Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter, which has had a significant impact on the odds. Ward is still the favorite at roughly -200, while Carter has closed the gap at +185. Hunter has also moved in front of Sanders, so the odds of a non-QB going first overall appear to be increasing.
My question is: Should they be? I completely understand the idea of passing on a QB to take a “safer” option. It’s very possible that Sanders and Carter end up being among the best players in football at their respective positions.
However, does adding one of those players change the long-term outlook of the Titans? Absolutely not.
Let’s face facts: The only thing that matters these days is your quarterback. That’s not changing any time soon. Defense may win championships, but that’s only if your quarterback is good enough to get you to the Super Bowl to begin with. The teams to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in recent years have nearly all had Hall of Fame-caliber QBs under center. The lone exception was Nick Foles, and his team was propelled to the playoffs by Carson Wentz putting up MVP numbers during the regular season.
The best part about all of this for the Titans? Almost none of those Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks were considered “generational prospects.” Tom Brady was famously a sixth-round draft pick. Patrick Mahomes was selected after Mitchell Trubisky. Aaron Rodgers almost slipped out of the first round entirely. Other elite QBs like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts were not selected as the top QB in their class.
Look at what happened with the Texans and Commanders the past two seasons. They were not getting “generation talents” at QB, being forced to settle instead for the No. 2 quarterback in the 2023 and 2024 drafts. They could’ve gone with higher-rated players at other positions. Instead, C.J. Stroud has led the Texans to playoff wins in each of his first two seasons, while Jayden Daniels propelled the Commanders to the NFC Championship game as a rookie.
Unless you can tell me with 100% certainty that both Ward and Sanders are going to be busts, the Titans should be selecting a quarterback with the top pick. If they’re not going to, they should trade the pick to a team that is willing to do so. The same goes for the Browns at No. 2. History suggests that we’re simply not that good at evaluating quarterbacks, so you should swing for the fences when you have the chance. If you don’t, you might not get another opportunity. I’m betting Ward to go No. 1 at -220 on FanDuel, and I’ll be betting Sanders to go No. 2 as well.
Cleveland Rocks & I Love LA
The NBA has caught some flack this season, but there has still been some high-level basketball on display on a nightly basis. The Celtics and Thunder have been two of the best teams in the league, and they’ve taken over as sizable favorites to win the NBA Championship. Both teams are available at +225 on BetMGM, and each squad is as low as +175 elsewhere.
For the Celtics, the formula is pretty simple. They were a historically good team last season, and they cruised to the 18th championship in franchise history. They brought back basically the entire team, so there’s no reason they can’t do it again. Boston’s metrics haven’t been quite as impressive as they were last year, but that could simply be some malaise after a long season in 2023-24.
On paper, the Thunder have been the best team in basketball. They’re first in the league in Net Rating, and they’ve jumped out to a 50-11 record. Simple Rating System—a metric that combines Net Rating and strength of schedule—has the Thunder as one of the greatest teams of all time. There’s no doubt that they could hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
That said, these teams are priced like they should walk to the Finals, and I just don’t agree with that assessment. They still have some major roadblocks standing in their way, presenting major value in the betting market:
Cleveland Cavaliers (+700; FanDuel)
I honestly can’t believe that the Cavs are still available at +700. What do they have to do to be taken seriously as threats? They have underperformed in the playoffs the past two seasons, but this year’s version of the team is way better.
It wouldn’t be that hard to make a case that they should be the favorites in the East. They’ve jumped out to an NBA-best 50-10 record, and they trail only the Thunder in Net Rating. If they meet the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, they will almost certainly have home-court advantage.
The Cavs have gone toe-to-toe with the Celtics all season, and Boston has had no answer for Donovan Mitchell. In four games vs. Boston during the regular season, Mitchell has gone for 31, 35, 35, and 41 points.
Maybe the Celtics will flip the switch and turn back into a juggernaut in the playoffs, but the gap between them and the Cavs is simply too wide in the betting market. Cleveland has a complete roster after adding De’Andre Hunter before the deadline, and they need to be taken seriously as a contender. If you don’t already have some exposure, I’d grab them at +700 while it’s still available.
Los Angeles Lakers (+1600; FanDuel)
The Lakers aren’t nearly as good as the Cavs on paper, but the West feels a little bit more open. For starters, there’s only one elite team at the top of the conference instead of two, with the Thunder the only team that is definitively better than them.
However, OKC is still a very young team. They still have yet to make it out of the second round of the NBA playoffs. The Lakers have tons of big game experience between LeBron James and Luka Doncic, and that matters in the NBA. We’ve seen young players lose to established stars going back decades, so OKC might still be a year away.
Adding Luka Doncic gives the Lakers another option offensively, and pairing him with LeBron James is borderline unfair. They will always have at least one of those two players on the floor, giving them one of the best offensive players in basketball in the lineup at all times.
That said, the biggest development might be their defense. Over their past 15 games, the Lakers are No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Trading D’Angelo Russell for Dorian Finney-Smith has had a tremendous impact, while the addition of Doncic has taken some of the burden off LeBron’s shoulders. Instead of having to focus all of his energy on offense, James is back to being a two-way monster.
Ultimately, Doncic got past the Thunder in the playoffs last year, and I think the Lakers are undoubtedly better than that Mavericks squad was. The Lakers are as low as +1000 elsewhere, so this is another price tag that is too good to pass up.
