In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Most people would agree Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA. He continues to put up insane stats every time he steps on the court and is having his best season, which is saying a lot for a player who has won three MVP awards in the last four years.
While Jokic is dominating, he isn’t the favorite to win the MVP. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the Thunder as the top seed in the Western Conference and is the favorite ranging from -320 to -400. Jokic is anywhere from +220 to +300 to win the award.
Denver has been playing well and is the fourth seed in the conference. Jokic is third in points, third in rebounds, second in assists, fourth in steals and second in three-point percentage. He is averaging a triple-double with 29.9 points, 13.1 rebounds, 10.1 assists, 1.8 steals, 2.1 three-pointers and shooting 56.7% from the field, including 47.9% from three-point range, which is by far a career high. He has the ninth-highest true shooting percentage.
The splits with him on and off the court are stark. With Jokic on the court, Denver averages 124.8 points per 100 possessions, while it’s 102.7 per 100 without him. Last week, Jokic had 35 points, 22 rebounds and 17 assists against the Kings. It was the first 35-20-15 game since Wilt Chamberlain 57 years ago.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a deserving candidate and most years it would be an easy decision in favor of him. He is near the top of almost every advanced metric with Jokic. SGA is averaging 32.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6 assists, 2.1 steals, 2 three-pointers, 1.1 blocks and is shooting 52.8% from the field. He has improved his scoring by two points and most of the stats are similar to last season.
Even if you believe SGA will win the award, the value isn’t there at the current numbers. The voter fatigue with Jokic seems to be a real thing, but Jokic at plus-money is the current bet to make if he’s your pick.
Also, in case you wanted to see the gauntlet that the Chiefs and Eagles had to run through on the way to New Orleans, here’s the entire NFL playoff bracket.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Super Bowl Player Prop: Run, Xavier, Run!
- NBA ROY Award: Going to the Wells
Take On Your Friends
Free head-to-head Super Bowl Guilloteenies are LIVE!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Is Patrick Mahomes the GOAT? Or at least put him on the short list.
🤔 Josh Allen’s numbers vs. Chiefs are stellar. How do the Bills keep losing?
🪓 Go on the chopping block against a friend. Free Super Bowl Guilloteenies.
👀 How early is too early to pick Brock Bowers and Trey McBride? Ian, Chris, and friends jumped in for a Mock Fantasy Draft.
☘️ Ollie Gordon II is running through Mobile. Thor Nystrom’s Senior Bowl preview features the RBs.
Early Super Bowl Prop: Catch Him if You Can
No. 1 Chiefs (15-2) at No. 2 Eagles (14-3)
Sun. Feb. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Total: O/U 49.5
The Bet: Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 rushing yards
While the game is less than two weeks away, there will be a lot of betting on the Chiefs-Eagles game and lines will move rapidly. One of the early bets standing out is the rushing yards for Xavier Worthy.
The best line is over 4.5 yards at -110 on BetMGM and is 5.5 yards on a few books. Worthy had 20 carries during the regular season and went over 4.5 rushing yards in 10 of 16 games. Worthy had a carry against the Texans for minus-8 yards and had two carries for 16 yards against the Bills.
The rookie wide receiver improved and was more involved in the offense as the season went on. He has 11 rushing attempts in the last five games and with two weeks to prepare, expect the Chiefs to draw something up with Worthy running the ball.
NBA Rookie of the Year Award is Wide Open
THE BET: Jaylen Wells +450 FanDuel
How bad is the rookie class this season? A good stretch can put a player as the favorite. That’s how wide open it is. Miami center Kel’el Ware is the current favorite to win the award followed by Stephon Castle, Alexandre Sarr and Jaylen Wells. Ware wasn’t even in the conversation before the year.
Ware has seen his role grow in January. He is averaging 13.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 1.1 three-pointers, and is shooting 55.6% from the field. The 7-foot center averaged 7 minutes in November, 13.6 in December when he was sent to the G League, and 23.1 this month.
For the season, Ware is averaging 8.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1 block in 15.9 minutes per game. Ware, the 15th overall pick, has scored at least 20 points in three of the last four games with two double-doubles.
Wells looks the best bet at the moment. No one stands out with flashy stats and Wells is playing a critical role for the Grizzlies, who are third in the Western Conference. He leads active rookies in scoring with 11.9 points per game. Jared McCain averaged 15.3 points in 23 games and is out for the season and ineligible for the award. Wells has seen his minutes increase and often guards the top threat on the opponent. Wells is shooting 39.2% from three-point range and second among rookies in plus-minus.
Don’t be surprised when the winner has underwhelming numbers, but someone has to win it.
