I can’t thank everyone enough for the warm welcome to the Fantasy Life family. For the first time I can remember, I’m speechless. Of course, no matter how hard we try, mistakes do happen. As someone known for compulsive levels of meticulous organization, you just have to laugh. I won’t highlight my MLB mishap any further if you didn’t notice it already — please chalk it up to my first-day-on-the-job jitters.
A bettor’s life is about antifragility anyway, the most successful ones possess thick rhinoceros skin.
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Feels great to be back in the saddle. You can almost feel the gaze of the NFL on your neck, peeking out through the bushes like that Kim K GIF.
But before the games begin, there’s still plenty of work to do, bringing us right into today’s piece — a mispriced rushing prop, some strategy to feed the brain and today’s HR call.
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball — Feed him more!
- Building Block — Over Early, Under Late
- Ding Dong, The Pitch Is Dead
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮— Feed him more!
Time to stare into the NFL future for a player prop that absolutely reeks of ageism. Oh, if only we all could find someone to love us the way Jerry Jones loves Ezekiel Elliott, the world would be a wonderful place.
Dallas’ eccentric owner did what he does best this offseason, confusing football fans nationwide by backing up another truckload of cash for New England’s RB2. I mean, Zeke did manage 3.5 yards per carry in 2023. Sheesh…
Anyway, as most experienced fantasy players/prop bettors out there can tell you, the RB position’s all about opportunity — and there are roughly six million reasons to assume Elliott’s set up to get fed. His only real competition for work is Rico Dowdle, a fifth-year undrafted free agent with 113 total career touches.
Even if Dowdle usurps Elliott’s base work between the 20s, he might be doing us a favor. I’d still assert Zeke owns the high-value touches at the goal line. Dak doesn’t run anymore. Plus, say what you will — Zeke’s always found the end zone posting, above average yards-after-contact stats with a 67% success rate in goal-to-go situations last year. And that was for a truly terrible Patriot offense.
The quality of the surrounding offensive environment literally could not be more disparate than moving from New England to Dallas. The Cowboys ranked #1 with 29.9 PPG as the hapless Pats’ 13.9 PPG finished dead last, further boosting Elliott’s chances for a healthy TD total.
So why is Elliott’s TD prop at 5.5 for plus money?
I’m not sure, but I’m not also not going to wait around for it to change.
To preface this season’s first building block, no market is more important to be early on than touchdowns because they move one at a time. That movement makes a tremendous difference in the math from an implied probability standpoint, oftentimes rendering the new line unplayable.
THE BET: Ezekiel Elliott Over 5.5 Touchdowns (+135)
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Betting Tips and Tricks
Over Early, Under Late
The public’s always been known for betting the over. This remains particularly true for player props—with the vast majority of all money going toward something to happen—subsequently moving lines higher.
Knowing that one piece of given information, it stands to reason to get your chips down before it happens. Conversely, betting unders (which is only for boring boomers according to Twitter) works oppositely—There’s no point in rushing to the window to bet the under on a line that’s perpetually moving up.
It’s not fun or popular but the sad reality remains — football’s a game of attrition and injuries will derail more overs than not. So bet overs on low bars early while you wait to short the highest lines. It could come down to just a few yards or catches, you never know.
💥💣 Ding dong, the pitch is dead 💣💥
The Texas Rangers travel to Beantown to face the Red Sox and 28-year-old righty Kutter Crawford. After an excellent first half from Crawford (3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), the wheels haven’t just fallen off — they caught fire and went flying toward oncoming traffic.
I’m not exaggerating. Having covered MLB at a granular level for years I simply can’t remember a pitcher ever giving up this many long balls in such a short span…13 homers in his last 18.2 IP to be exact. Woof.
Like they say on the trading floor, the trend is our friend and right now, Crawford does not have an answer for lefties. Southpaws are posting cartoonish stats since the break off of him — .357 BA, 1.389 OPS, 23.5% Barrel, .467 xwOBA, and 8 HR. Sorry for the barrage of stats but as far as underlying metrics go, these border mind-blowing.
Enter Corey Seager, who could not possibly be in a better spot at Fenway. He’s one of the best hitters on the planet with stats that mirror Kutter’s struggles over his last 105 PA vs RHP — .337 BA, 1.081OPS,18.1% Barrel, .451 xwOBA, and 9 HR! If Kutter challenges Seager in the zone with the four-seam or cut fastball, ding dong that pitch is dead.
THE BET: Corey Seager Over 0.5 Home Runs (+250)
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports bettting nerds:
🚨 ICYMI: Fantasy Life has acquired Guillotine Leagues. Dive into the best way to play fantasy football.
⛳️ Targeting a 35-1 outright is a good way to get the early-week juices flowing. It’s Tom Kim szn.
📊 College Football season is right around the corner. Thor’s 2024 College Football Power Rankings are live.
🏆 Super Bowl betting lines are moving. What value do you see opening up?
🤢 Whatever lines are available on the Titans…bet the under.
